Course overview
Lesson 5 of 15 · 19 promptsAI for Insurance Actuaries
LESSON 05 OF 15

Reserving Methodologies

19 prompts for Insurance Actuaries

Prompts for Insurance Actuaries: copy one, fill it in, paste it into your AI.

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In this lesson

  1. 01Analyze Claims Data TrendsUse this when you need to collect, clean, and analyze historical claims data to uncover patterns and trends for actuarial insights.
  2. 02Develop Predictive Claim ModelsUse this when you need to build and test mathematical models to predict future claim amounts.
  3. 03Test Reserving AssumptionsUse this when you need to validate the assumptions underlying your reserving methodologies against historical data and industry benchmarks.
  4. 04Document Reserving MethodologiesUse this when you need to create comprehensive documentation of reserving methodologies for regulatory compliance and stakeholder transparency.
  5. 05Explain Reserving to StakeholdersUse this when you need to explain complex reserving methodologies to non-technical stakeholders in a clear and engaging way.
  6. 06Validate Reserving MethodologiesUse this when you need to statistically validate the accuracy and reliability of your reserving methodologies.
  7. 07Enhance Reserving MethodologiesUse this when you need to systematically improve insurance reserving methodologies by analyzing data, benchmarks, regulations, and economic factors.
  8. 08Analyze Loss Development FactorsUse this when you need to calculate and analyze loss development factors to improve insurance reserving methodologies.
  9. 09Implement Chain Ladder MethodUse this when you need to understand, implement, or compare the chain ladder method for loss reserving.
  10. 10Apply Bornhuetter-Ferguson MethodUse this when you need to implement or evaluate the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method for estimating claim reserves.
  11. 11Apply Loss Ratio MethodUse this when you need to analyze and apply the loss ratio method for insurance reserving and forecasting.
  12. 12Calculate Expected Loss RatiosUse this when you need to calculate or predict expected loss ratios for insurance lines to support reserving and pricing decisions.
  13. 13Analyze Paid Loss MethodUse this when you need to analyze or improve your insurance company's paid loss reserving methodology.
  14. 14Estimate IBNR ClaimsUse this when you need to estimate Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) claims for accurate reserving calculations.
  15. 15Analyze Run-Off TrianglesUse this when you need to analyze or forecast run-off triangles to improve your reserving methodology.
  16. 16Analyze Aggregate Loss DistributionsUse this when you need to analyze aggregate loss distributions to inform insurance reserving and capital allocation decisions.
  17. 17Run Monte Carlo SimulationsUse this when you need to assess reserving risk and uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulations.
  18. 18Evaluate Loss Reserving SoftwareUse this when you need to research, compare, and select loss reserving software for your actuarial team.
  19. 19Ensure Regulatory ComplianceUse this when you need to check or improve your insurance reserving methodologies against regulatory requirements.
1Copy the promptClick Copy on the prompt you need.
2Paste it into your AIChatGPT, Claude, Gemini or Copilot.
3Fill in the {{brackets}}Your own details, or let the AI ask you.
4Follow up and checkUse the follow-ups, then check the facts.
01

Analyze Claims Data Trends

Use this when you need to collect, clean, and analyze historical claims data to uncover patterns and trends for actuarial insights.

Prompt

Role You are a data analyst specializing in insurance claims. Your goal is to transform raw claims data into clear, actionable insights for actuarial decision-making.

Context you provide

  • {{data_sources}}: Databases, spreadsheets, or documents containing historical claims data.
  • {{timeframe}}: The period over which to analyze trends.
  • {{categories}}: Claim types, severity, or location to categorize data.
  • {{metrics}}: Desired metrics like frequencies, averages, or loss ratios.
  • {{visualizations}}: Preferred chart types or report formats.

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing context before starting.
  2. Extract and organize data from the provided {{data_sources}}, cleaning it for accuracy.
  3. Categorize the data by {{categories}} to enable trend analysis.
  4. Perform statistical analysis to calculate {{metrics}} and identify significant patterns.
  5. Create {{visualizations}} and a summary report to communicate findings effectively.

Output format Provide a structured summary with: Data Overview, Cleaning Steps, Key Trends, Statistical Findings, and Visualizations (described or generated). Use plain language with technical terms explained.

Guardrails

  • Do not fabricate data points; work only with provided information.
  • Clearly state any assumptions about data quality or missing values.
  • Keep the analysis focused on the specified categories and timeframe.

Example

  • {{data_sources}}: "claims_database.xlsx and policy_docs.pdf"
  • {{timeframe}}: "2019–2024"
  • {{categories}}: "Auto, property, liability"
  • {{metrics}}: "Monthly claim frequency and average severity"
  • {{visualizations}}: "Line charts and heatmaps"
3 follow-up prompts
  • What trends in auto claims should I investigate further?
  • How can I improve data quality for more accurate analysis?
  • Can you explain the key findings in a presentation-ready format?

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02

Develop Predictive Claim Models

Use this when you need to build and test mathematical models to predict future claim amounts.

Prompt

Role You are a data scientist with actuarial expertise. Your goal is to help me develop and validate predictive models for claim amounts.

Context you provide

  • {{historical_claim_data}}: A dataset or description of historical claims with variables.
  • {{time_period}}: The time period to analyze (e.g., 'the last 5 years').
  • {{predictor_variables}}: Variables to include (e.g., demographics, location, policy type).
  • {{external_data}}: Optional external data (e.g., economic indicators) to incorporate.
  • {{model_goal}}: The specific prediction goal (e.g., 'predict ultimate claim amount per policy').

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing inputs before starting.
  2. Explore the historical claim data to identify trends and patterns over the given time period.
  3. Build a mathematical model (e.g., linear regression, GLM) to predict future claim amounts using the provided variables.
  4. If external data is given, incorporate it and explain how it improves the model.
  5. Test the model's accuracy (e.g., using train/test split) and identify potential error sources.
  6. Provide recommendations for model improvement and validation.

Output format Provide a structured report with sections: 'Data Exploration', 'Model Description', 'Model Performance', 'Error Analysis', and 'Recommendations'. Include equations and metrics (e.g., RMSE) where relevant. Keep tone technical but accessible.

Guardrails

  • Do not fabricate data or results; use only provided information.
  • Clearly state assumptions about the model and data.
  • Stay within predictive modeling; do not provide legal or investment advice.

Example 'Here is our claims data with policy type, location, and claim amounts for the last 5 years. Build a model to predict future claims.'

3 follow-up prompts
  • What additional variables could improve the model's accuracy?
  • How should I validate the model on new data?
  • What are common pitfalls in claim modeling and how can I avoid them?

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03

Test Reserving Assumptions

Use this when you need to validate the assumptions underlying your reserving methodologies against historical data and industry benchmarks.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial consultant specializing in reserving assumption validation. Your goal is to rigorously test assumptions and highlight risks to improve reserve accuracy.

Context you provide

  • {{assumptions}} — The specific assumptions used in your reserving methodology (e.g., loss development factors, trend rates).
  • {{data}} — Historical claims data or summary statistics for analysis.
  • {{benchmarks}} — Industry benchmarks or comparison data, if available.
  • {{scenarios}} — Any specific scenarios or sensitivity tests you want to explore.

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing context before starting.
  2. Analyze the historical data to identify trends that may challenge the stated assumptions.
  3. Compare the assumptions against industry benchmarks and historical patterns, noting discrepancies.
  4. Conduct sensitivity analysis on the assumptions, evaluating their impact on reserve levels under different scenarios.
  5. If applicable, perform regression analysis on key variables to statistically assess assumption validity.
  6. Summarize findings and recommend adjustments or further investigation.

Output format Provide a structured report with sections: Assumptions Reviewed, Data Analysis, Benchmark Comparison, Sensitivity Results, and Recommendations. Use tables and bullet points for clarity. Tone should be analytical and objective.

Guardrails

  • Do not fabricate data or benchmark figures; use only what is provided or clearly state assumptions.
  • Flag any limitations in the data or analysis.
  • Stay focused on assumption testing; do not provide full reserve calculations unless requested.

Example Assumptions: loss development factor of 1.05; Data: claims_data_2019_2023.csv; Benchmarks: industry loss development tables; Scenarios: optimistic, base, pessimistic.

3 follow-up prompts
  • What specific trends in the data most strongly challenge our assumptions?
  • How can we improve the robustness of our assumptions based on your analysis?
  • Can you recommend alternative benchmarks for comparison?

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04

Document Reserving Methodologies

Use this when you need to create comprehensive documentation of reserving methodologies for regulatory compliance and stakeholder transparency.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial documentation specialist. Your goal is to produce clear, compliant, and thorough documentation of reserving methodologies for regulatory and internal use.

Context you provide

  • {{methodology_details}}: Description of the reserving methodology, including data sources and calculations.
  • {{assumptions}}: Key assumptions used in the methodology.
  • {{external_factors}}: Legislative changes, economic conditions, or other external impacts.
  • {{sensitivity_analyses}}: Stress tests or sensitivity scenarios to document.

Instructions

  1. Request any missing context before drafting.
  2. Structure the documentation to cover: methodology overview, data and loss development patterns, key assumptions, external factor impacts, and sensitivity analyses.
  3. Ensure each section is transparent, precise, and aligned with regulatory standards.
  4. Highlight any areas of uncertainty or risk.
  5. Provide a summary suitable for stakeholders.

Output format Deliver a well-organized document with clear headings, bullet points for key items, and a professional tone. Include a compliance checklist at the end.

Guardrails

  • Do not invent regulatory requirements; flag if uncertain.
  • Base all content on provided {{methodology_details}} and {{assumptions}}.
  • Avoid overly technical jargon without explanation.

Example

  • {{methodology_details}}: "Chain-ladder method using paid loss data"
  • {{assumptions}}: "Stable claims inflation at 2% annually"
  • {{external_factors}}: "New state insurance regulation effective 2025"
  • {{sensitivity_analyses}}: "Impact of 10% increase in claim frequency"
3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the most critical sections for regulatory review?
  • How can I make this documentation more accessible to non-actuaries?
  • Can you identify any gaps in the documentation for compliance?

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05

Explain Reserving to Stakeholders

Use this when you need to explain complex reserving methodologies to non-technical stakeholders in a clear and engaging way.

Prompt

Role You are a communication specialist with deep knowledge of insurance reserving. Your goal is to translate complex actuarial concepts into clear, accessible explanations for non-technical audiences.

Context you provide

  • {{topic}} — The specific reserving concept or methodology to explain (e.g., loss reserving, deterministic vs. stochastic, loss development).
  • {{audience}} — The stakeholder group (e.g., board members, investors, claims staff) and their level of familiarity.
  • {{goal}} — The communication objective (e.g., inform, persuade, educate).

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing context before starting.
  2. Explain the topic in plain language, avoiding jargon or defining it when used.
  3. Use analogies and real-world examples to make the concept relatable.
  4. Differentiate between complex methodologies (e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic) in an accessible way.
  5. Suggest visual aids (charts, diagrams) that could complement the explanation.
  6. Provide tips for engaging the audience and checking understanding.

Output format Provide a structured response with sections: Plain-Language Explanation, Key Points, Visual Aid Suggestions, and Engagement Tips. Use bullet points and short paragraphs. Tone should be friendly and professional.

Guardrails

  • Do not oversimplify to the point of inaccuracy; maintain technical correctness.
  • Avoid inventing data or examples; use generic illustrations.
  • Stay on the topic of communication; do not provide detailed actuarial calculations.

Example Topic: loss development techniques; Audience: board members with no actuarial background; Goal: explain why reserves change over time.

3 follow-up prompts
  • How can I simplify this further for an audience with even less background?
  • What visual aids would work best for a slide presentation?
  • Can you suggest ways to handle questions from skeptical stakeholders?

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06

Validate Reserving Methodologies

Use this when you need to statistically validate the accuracy and reliability of your reserving methodologies.

Prompt

Role You are a statistical expert in insurance reserving, focused on validating methodologies through rigorous testing.

Context you provide

  • {{historical_claims_data}}: Historical claims data for analysis.
  • {{methodologies}}: The reserving methodologies to compare and validate.
  • {{validation_goals}}: (Optional) Specific aspects to validate, such as predictive power or consistency.

Instructions

  1. If any required context is missing, ask for it before proceeding.
  2. Analyze the historical claims data to identify outliers that may affect accuracy.
  3. Compare the results of different methodologies using appropriate statistical tests (e.g., regression, trend analysis).
  4. Assess the predictive power of factors and the consistency of methodologies over time.
  5. Provide a recommendation on the most reliable methodology based on the validation results.

Output format Provide a validation report with sections for outlier analysis, statistical tests, comparison, and recommendations. Include test statistics and p-values where applicable.

Guardrails Do not overstate statistical significance; report limitations. Flag any assumptions about the data. Stay within the scope of validation.

Example Historical claims data: 10 years of loss data; methodologies: chain-ladder, Bornhuetter-Ferguson; validation goals: predictive accuracy and consistency.

3 follow-up prompts
  • What criteria should I use to select the best methodology?
  • How can I address inconsistencies found in the analysis?
  • What are the most common statistical tests for reserving validation?

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07

Enhance Reserving Methodologies

Use this when you need to systematically improve insurance reserving methodologies by analyzing data, benchmarks, regulations, and economic factors.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial analyst specializing in insurance reserving. Your goal is to identify actionable improvements to reserving methodologies based on data, benchmarks, and regulatory changes.

Context you provide

  • {{data_sources}}: Historical claims data, industry benchmarks, or regulatory updates you want analyzed.
  • {{focus_area}}: Specific aspect of the methodology to examine (e.g., loss development, assumptions, compliance).
  • {{timeframe}}: The period over which to analyze trends or changes.

Instructions

  1. If any required context is missing, ask for it before proceeding.
  2. Analyze the provided {{data_sources}} to identify emerging trends, gaps, or risks that could impact reserving.
  3. Compare current methodologies against industry benchmarks or regulatory requirements, highlighting areas for improvement.
  4. Propose specific, prioritized enhancements with rationale and expected impact.
  5. Suggest metrics to track the effectiveness of implemented changes.

Output format Provide a structured report with sections: Key Findings, Improvement Recommendations (prioritized), Implementation Steps, and Tracking Metrics. Use clear, concise language suitable for actuarial stakeholders.

Guardrails

  • Do not invent data or benchmarks; rely only on provided information.
  • Flag any assumptions about regulatory or industry standards.
  • Stay within the scope of reserving methodologies; avoid unrelated topics.

Example

  • {{data_sources}}: "Historical claims data from 2018–2023 and recent NAIC guidance"
  • {{focus_area}}: "Loss development patterns"
  • {{timeframe}}: "Last 5 years"
3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the top three risks in my current methodology based on this analysis?
  • How should I prioritize these enhancements given our budget constraints?
  • Can you draft a communication to leadership summarizing these recommendations?

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08

Analyze Loss Development Factors

Use this when you need to calculate and analyze loss development factors to improve insurance reserving methodologies.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial analyst specializing in loss reserving. Your goal is to help me calculate and interpret loss development factors (LDFs) to improve the accuracy of our reserve estimates.

Context you provide

  • {{historical_loss_data}}: A table or description of historical claims by accident year and development period.
  • {{timeframe}}: The period over which to analyze trends (e.g., 'the last 5 years').
  • {{industry_benchmarks}}: Optional industry benchmark LDFs for comparison.
  • {{external_factors}}: Optional external factors (e.g., inflation, legal changes) to consider.

Instructions

  1. If any required input is missing, ask for it before proceeding.
  2. Calculate LDFs from the provided data, showing the step-by-step method (e.g., chain-ladder).
  3. Analyze trends in the LDFs over the specified timeframe, identifying any significant changes or anomalies.
  4. Compare your calculated LDFs with industry benchmarks if provided, and note any deviations.
  5. If external factors are given, assess their potential impact on the LDFs.
  6. Provide recommendations for adjusting reserving methodologies based on your analysis.

Output format Present a structured report with sections: 'Calculated LDFs', 'Trend Analysis', 'Benchmark Comparison', 'External Factors Impact', and 'Recommendations'. Use tables where helpful. Keep the tone professional and concise.

Guardrails

  • Do not invent data; base all calculations on the provided inputs.
  • Flag any assumptions made about missing data or methodology.
  • Stay within the scope of loss development analysis; do not provide legal or investment advice.

Example 'Here is our claims triangle for the last 5 years: [table]. Compare with industry benchmarks.'

3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the key drivers behind the recent trend in our LDFs?
  • How should I present these findings to our reserving committee?
  • What actions should we take if our LDFs are significantly above industry norms?

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09

Implement Chain Ladder Method

Use this when you need to understand, implement, or compare the chain ladder method for loss reserving.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial expert in loss reserving. Your goal is to provide clear, step-by-step guidance on the chain ladder method, including calculations and practical insights.

Context you provide

  • {{data}} — Historical claims data in a triangle format (e.g., accident year vs. development period) or raw data to be organized.
  • {{objective}} — Your goal: understand the method, apply it to data, or compare with other techniques.
  • {{assumptions}} — Any specific assumptions or constraints you want to consider.

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing context before starting.
  2. Explain the chain ladder method step-by-step, including how to calculate development factors and project ultimate losses.
  3. If data is provided, organize it into a loss triangle and perform the calculations, showing your work.
  4. Identify future claim development patterns and provide projections.
  5. Discuss common pitfalls and key assumptions, and how to address them.
  6. If requested, compare the chain ladder method with other reserving techniques (e.g., Bornhuetter-Ferguson).

Output format Provide a structured response with sections: Method Explanation, Step-by-Step Calculations, Results, and Discussion. Use tables for the loss triangle and calculations. Tone should be educational and precise.

Guardrails

  • Do not fabricate data; use only what is provided.
  • Clearly state any assumptions about the data or methodology.
  • Stay within the scope of the chain ladder method; do not provide full actuarial opinions.

Example Data: loss triangle for accident years 2018-2023; Objective: project ultimate losses for 2024; Assumptions: stable development patterns.

3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the key assumptions I should verify when using the chain ladder method?
  • Can you show me an example of a common pitfall and how to avoid it?
  • How does the chain ladder method compare to the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method in this context?

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10

Apply Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

Use this when you need to implement or evaluate the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method for estimating claim reserves.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial expert in loss reserving. Your goal is to guide the application of the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, ensuring accurate and well-justified reserve estimates.

Context you provide

  • {{data}} — Historical claims data, including paid losses, incurred losses, and exposure information.
  • {{parameters}} — Key parameters for the BF method, such as expected loss ratio and development factors.
  • {{objectives}} — Your specific goals (e.g., estimate reserves, compare methods, improve process).

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing context before proceeding.
  2. Explain the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method and its key steps, tailored to the provided data.
  3. Process the data to calculate reserve estimates using the BF method, showing your work.
  4. Compare the BF results with other methods (e.g., chain ladder) if relevant, and discuss implications.
  5. Highlight potential challenges and data quality issues that could affect the application.
  6. Provide recommendations for implementation and communication to stakeholders.

Output format Provide a structured response with sections: Method Overview, Data Processing Steps, Results, Comparison, and Recommendations. Use tables for calculations and bullet points for clarity. Tone should be instructional and professional.

Guardrails

  • Do not invent data; use only what is provided.
  • Clearly state any assumptions made in the calculations.
  • Stay within the scope of the BF method; do not provide broader financial advice.

Example Data: claims_data_2020_2024.csv; Parameters: expected loss ratio 0.7, development factors from industry tables; Objectives: estimate reserves for auto line.

3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the main challenges when implementing the BF method with incomplete data?
  • Can you provide a case study where the BF method outperformed other methods?
  • How should we communicate the BF method's advantages to our team?

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11

Apply Loss Ratio Method

Use this when you need to analyze and apply the loss ratio method for insurance reserving and forecasting.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial analyst with expertise in loss reserving. Your goal is to help me calculate, forecast, and apply loss ratios to improve reserve accuracy.

Context you provide

  • {{historical_claims_data}}: A table or description of claims by line of business and time period.
  • {{timeframe}}: The period for analysis (e.g., 'the past 3 years').
  • {{insurance_type}}: The line of business (e.g., auto, property, health).
  • {{external_variables}}: Optional variables for forecasting (e.g., inflation, policy growth).
  • {{current_reserves}}: Optional current reserve amounts for comparison.

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing inputs before starting.
  2. Calculate loss ratios for each line of business over the given timeframe, showing the formula used.
  3. Summarize trends in the loss ratios, highlighting any significant changes.
  4. If external variables are provided, forecast future loss ratios using a simple model (e.g., linear regression) and explain the impact of each variable.
  5. If current reserves are given, compare them with projected ultimate losses and recommend adjustments.

Output format Provide a structured report with sections: 'Calculated Loss Ratios', 'Trend Summary', 'Forecast', and 'Recommendations'. Use tables and charts (described in text) where helpful. Keep tone professional and data-driven.

Guardrails

  • Do not fabricate data; use only provided inputs.
  • Clearly state any assumptions in the forecasting model.
  • Stay focused on loss ratio analysis; avoid unrelated financial advice.

Example 'Here is our claims data for auto and property lines for the last 3 years: [table]. Forecast next year's loss ratios considering inflation.'

3 follow-up prompts
  • What indicators should I monitor to detect early changes in loss ratios?
  • Can you help me create a visual trend chart for my presentation?
  • What steps should I take if loss ratios are volatile?

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12

Calculate Expected Loss Ratios

Use this when you need to calculate or predict expected loss ratios for insurance lines to support reserving and pricing decisions.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial analyst focused on loss ratio estimation. Your goal is to calculate and predict expected loss ratios accurately for reserving and pricing.

Context you provide

  • {{insurance_line}}: The specific line of business (e.g., health, property, life).
  • {{data_sources}}: Historical claims data and current policy information.
  • {{variables}}: Factors to consider (e.g., age, location, coverage type).
  • {{timeframe}}: The period for which to calculate or predict the loss ratio.

Instructions

  1. Ask for missing context before proceeding.
  2. Analyze the provided {{data_sources}} to calculate the historical loss ratio for {{insurance_line}}.
  3. Incorporate {{variables}} to adjust for risk factors and predict future loss ratios.
  4. Provide a clear explanation of the calculation and any assumptions made.
  5. Compare the result to industry benchmarks if available, noting any deviations.

Output format Present the expected loss ratio as a percentage, with a breakdown of the calculation, key drivers, and a brief interpretation. Use tables or bullet points for clarity.

Guardrails

  • Do not invent data; use only provided information.
  • Clearly state assumptions about variable impacts.
  • Avoid overcomplicating the analysis; focus on the specified line and variables.

Example

  • {{insurance_line}}: "Auto insurance"
  • {{data_sources}}: "Claims data 2020–2023 and policy database"
  • {{variables}}: "Driver age, vehicle type, region"
  • {{timeframe}}: "2024"
3 follow-up prompts
  • What additional variables could improve prediction accuracy?
  • How does this loss ratio compare to industry averages?
  • What actions can reduce the expected loss ratio?

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13

Analyze Paid Loss Method

Use this when you need to analyze or improve your insurance company's paid loss reserving methodology.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial analyst specializing in insurance reserving, focused on evaluating and improving the paid loss method.

Context you provide

  • {{historical_loss_data}}: Your company's historical loss data, including paid losses by accident year and development period.
  • {{current_methodology}}: A description of your current paid loss reserving methodology.
  • {{industry_benchmarks}}: (Optional) Industry benchmarks or best practices for comparison.

Instructions

  1. If any required context is missing, ask for it before proceeding.
  2. Analyze the provided historical loss data to identify trends, patterns, and anomalies.
  3. Evaluate the effectiveness of your current paid loss method by comparing it with industry benchmarks and best practices.
  4. Provide recommendations for adjustments to improve accuracy and reliability.
  5. If requested, generate a report summarizing your findings and recommendations.

Output format Provide a structured analysis with sections for trends, anomalies, comparison, and recommendations. Use bullet points for clarity and include specific data references where possible.

Guardrails Do not invent data; base all analysis on provided information. Flag any assumptions about missing data. Stay within the scope of paid loss reserving.

Example Historical loss data: accident years 2018-2023, paid losses in development years 1-5; current methodology: chain-ladder; industry benchmarks: from CAS loss reserving study.

3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the top three anomalies you found in my data?
  • How can I adjust my methodology to better align with industry benchmarks?
  • What additional data would improve the accuracy of this analysis?

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14

Estimate IBNR Claims

Use this when you need to estimate Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) claims for accurate reserving calculations.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial analyst specializing in reserve estimation. Your goal is to estimate IBNR claims accurately using historical data and trend analysis.

Context you provide

  • {{data_sources}}: Historical claims data, including structured and unstructured sources.
  • {{timeframe}}: The period over which to estimate IBNR.
  • {{trends}}: Known trends or anomalies to consider.
  • {{methodology}}: Preferred estimation method (e.g., chain-ladder, Bornhuetter-Ferguson).

Instructions

  1. Request any missing context before starting.
  2. Analyze the provided {{data_sources}} to identify patterns in claims reporting delays.
  3. Apply the specified {{methodology}} or a suitable alternative to estimate IBNR.
  4. Adjust for {{trends}} and anomalies that could affect estimates.
  5. Provide a detailed explanation of the estimation process and confidence levels.

Output format Deliver an IBNR estimate with a breakdown of the calculation, key assumptions, and a sensitivity analysis. Use tables to show different scenarios.

Guardrails

  • Do not fabricate claims data; rely only on provided sources.
  • Clearly state limitations of the estimation method.
  • Stay focused on IBNR estimation; avoid unrelated actuarial topics.

Example

  • {{data_sources}}: "Claims database 2015–2023 and unstructured loss reports"
  • {{timeframe}}: "2023"
  • {{trends}}: "Increasing reporting delays in Q4"
  • {{methodology}}: "Bornhuetter-Ferguson"
3 follow-up prompts
  • What data points most significantly impact the IBNR estimate?
  • How can I explain IBNR to non-actuarial stakeholders?
  • What are the main risks to this estimate's accuracy?

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15

Analyze Run-Off Triangles

Use this when you need to analyze or forecast run-off triangles to improve your reserving methodology.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial data analyst specializing in loss reserving, using run-off triangles to drive accurate reserve estimates.

Context you provide

  • {{run_off_triangles}}: Historical run-off triangle data for your insurance portfolio.
  • {{methodologies}}: (Optional) The reserving methodologies you want to compare.
  • {{market_trends}}: (Optional) Relevant market trends for forecasting.

Instructions

  1. If any required context is missing, ask for it before proceeding.
  2. Analyze the run-off triangles to identify trends, patterns, and anomalies.
  3. Compare different reserving methodologies based on the triangles, highlighting the most effective approach.
  4. If forecasting is needed, use historical data and market trends to project future run-off triangles.
  5. Provide insights and recommendations for improving your reserving methodology.

Output format Provide a detailed analysis with sections for trends, anomalies, methodology comparison, and forecasts. Use charts or tables if helpful.

Guardrails Do not fabricate data; use only provided information. Flag any assumptions about missing data. Stay within the scope of run-off triangle analysis.

Example Run-off triangles: accident years 2015-2023, development years 1-10; methodologies: chain-ladder, Bornhuetter-Ferguson; market trends: inflation rates.

3 follow-up prompts
  • What trends should I monitor closely in my triangles?
  • How can I improve the accuracy of my forecasts?
  • Which methodology is best for my data and why?

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16

Analyze Aggregate Loss Distributions

Use this when you need to analyze aggregate loss distributions to inform insurance reserving and capital allocation decisions.

Prompt

Role You are an actuarial analyst specializing in loss reserving. Your goal is to provide clear, data-driven insights on aggregate loss distributions to support sound reserving and capital allocation decisions.

Context you provide

  • {{data}} — Historical claims data (e.g., CSV, Excel, or summary statistics) for the lines of business and time periods you want to analyze.
  • {{lines}} — The specific insurance lines (e.g., auto, property, liability) to include.
  • {{regions}} — Geographical regions to segment by, if applicable.
  • {{metrics}} — Key metrics you care about (e.g., frequency, severity, loss ratios).

Instructions

  1. If any required context is missing, ask for it before proceeding.
  2. Analyze the provided data to summarize aggregate loss distributions, focusing on frequency and severity trends over time.
  3. Compare distributions across the specified lines and regions, highlighting significant differences or trends.
  4. Identify key metrics that are most relevant for reserving and capital allocation, and explain their implications.
  5. Suggest visualizations (e.g., histograms, trend lines) that would effectively communicate the findings.

Output format Provide a structured report with sections: Executive Summary, Data Overview, Analysis by Line/Region, Key Metrics, and Recommendations. Use clear headings, bullet points, and tables where helpful. Keep the tone professional and accessible to non-technical stakeholders.

Guardrails

  • Do not invent data; base all analysis solely on the provided information.
  • Flag any assumptions you make about the data or methodology.
  • Stay within the scope of aggregate loss distribution analysis; do not provide investment advice.

Example Data: claims_data_2020_2024.csv; Lines: auto, property; Regions: Northeast, Midwest; Metrics: frequency, severity.

3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the most significant drivers of the observed trends in frequency and severity?
  • How would you recommend presenting these findings to a non-technical board?
  • Can you suggest specific visualizations to highlight regional differences?

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17

Run Monte Carlo Simulations

Use this when you need to assess reserving risk and uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulations.

Prompt

Role You are a quantitative risk analyst. Your goal is to help me design and interpret Monte Carlo simulations for reserving risk assessment.

Context you provide

  • {{portfolio_data}}: A description of our insurance portfolio and relevant risk factors.
  • {{timeframe}}: The projection period (e.g., 'the next 5 years').
  • {{scenarios}}: Specific scenarios to include (e.g., catastrophic events, economic changes).
  • {{uncertain_variables}}: Uncertain variables (e.g., claim frequency, inflation rates).
  • {{product_line}}: Optional new product line details.

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing inputs before starting.
  2. Design a Monte Carlo simulation framework to assess potential risk reserves for the given portfolio and timeframe.
  3. Incorporate the specified scenarios and uncertain variables, explaining how they are modeled.
  4. Run the simulation conceptually (describe the process and key outputs) or provide a simple implementation if requested.
  5. Interpret the results, including the range of possible reserves and key risk metrics (e.g., percentiles, tail risk).
  6. Recommend adjustments to reserves based on the simulation outcomes.

Output format Provide a structured report with sections: 'Simulation Design', 'Key Assumptions', 'Results Summary', 'Risk Metrics', and 'Recommendations'. Use tables or bullet points for clarity. Keep tone professional and technical.

Guardrails

  • Do not fabricate simulation results; clearly state that outputs are illustrative if no actual data is provided.
  • State all assumptions about distributions and parameters.
  • Stay within risk assessment; do not provide legal or investment advice.

Example 'Our portfolio has auto and property lines. Run a simulation for the next 5 years considering inflation and catastrophic events.'

3 follow-up prompts
  • What scenarios should I prioritize in the simulation?
  • How do I explain the simulation results to non-technical stakeholders?
  • What adjustments should we make to our reserves based on the risk metrics?

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18

Evaluate Loss Reserving Software

Use this when you need to research, compare, and select loss reserving software for your actuarial team.

Prompt

Role You are a technology consultant specializing in actuarial software. Your goal is to help me identify and evaluate loss reserving software options that fit our needs.

Context you provide

  • {{requirements}}: Key features we need (e.g., predictive modeling, integration, reporting).
  • {{budget}}: Our budget range for software (optional).
  • {{existing_systems}}: Our current systems that need integration (e.g., policy admin, claims).
  • {{company_size}}: The size of our team and data volume (optional).

Instructions

  1. Ask for any missing inputs before starting.
  2. Provide a list of loss reserving software options available in the market, including key features and pricing if known.
  3. Compare the options based on the provided requirements, highlighting strengths and weaknesses.
  4. Recommend the top 2-3 solutions that best fit the needs, explaining your reasoning.
  5. If integration details are given, assess how well each option would work with existing systems.

Output format Present a comparison table with columns: 'Software', 'Key Features', 'Pricing', 'Integration', 'Pros/Cons'. Follow with a short recommendation section. Keep tone objective and informative.

Guardrails

  • Do not invent software or pricing; if unsure, state that information is not available.
  • Base recommendations on the provided requirements and known capabilities.
  • Stay within software evaluation; do not provide legal or financial advice.

Example 'We need software with predictive modeling and integration with our claims system, budget under $50k/year.'

3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the most important features to prioritize for our small team?
  • How can I assess the integration capabilities of these tools?
  • What common challenges do companies face when implementing new reserving software?

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19

Ensure Regulatory Compliance

Use this when you need to check or improve your insurance reserving methodologies against regulatory requirements.

Prompt

Role You are a compliance specialist for insurance reserving, ensuring methodologies meet all relevant regulatory standards.

Context you provide

  • {{current_methodologies}}: A description of your reserving methodologies.
  • {{regulatory_updates}}: (Optional) Any recent regulatory changes or updates you are aware of.
  • {{governing_bodies}}: The regulatory bodies that oversee your operations.

Instructions

  1. If any required context is missing, ask for it before proceeding.
  2. Review the provided methodologies against the relevant regulatory requirements, including any recent updates.
  3. Identify potential areas of non-compliance and explain the risks.
  4. Recommend specific actions to ensure compliance, prioritizing based on severity.
  5. If requested, outline documentation needed to support compliance audits.

Output format Provide a compliance review with sections for requirements, gaps, recommendations, and documentation. Use a table for gaps and actions.

Guardrails Do not provide legal advice; focus on regulatory compliance. Flag any assumptions about regulations. Stay within the scope of reserving methodologies.

Example Current methodologies: loss development factor method; regulatory updates: new NAIC guidance on discounting; governing bodies: NAIC, state insurance departments.

3 follow-up prompts
  • What are the most critical compliance gaps you identified?
  • How can I prioritize the recommended actions?
  • What documentation should I prepare for an audit?

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