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America's AI hardware imports hit a $1.04 trillion annual pace while Nvidia shares slide 21% in a month
U.S. imports of AI hardware hit a $1.04 trillion annualized run rate in September 2026, while NVIDIA's stock fell 21% over the past month.
U.S. imports of computers, computer accessories, and semiconductors hit an annualized run rate of $1.04 trillion in September 2026, a 151% year-over-year increase that has no precedent in the dot-com era or any other tech cycle. The physical flow of AI hardware into American data centers is accelerating, yet NVIDIA's stock has fallen more than 21% over the past month, creating a disconnect between trade data and share price that demands scrutiny.
The hardware flood behind the trillion-dollar figure
September imports in these categories rose $12.1 billion to $86.9 billion, according to The Kobeissi Letter. It was the second-largest monthly increase on record, trailing only July's $14.7 billion jump. The $1.04 trillion figure is an annualized run rate drawn from one month of reported trade data and holds only if September's pace continues for a full year. It measures the speed of expansion, and since the start of 2024, imports in these categories have more than quadrupled. For comparison, annual growth during the dot-com boom peaked at 34%.
Capital-goods imports reached a record $158 billion in September. Economists estimate that computers, accessories, and semiconductors accounted for roughly 61% of the monthly trade deficit. The equipment is not sitting in warehouses. Servers, accelerators, and networking gear are flowing directly into data centers, and NVIDIA sits at the center of that order book.
NVIDIA's numbers tell a different story than its stock price
In fiscal Q2 2027, NVIDIA posted revenue of $96.22 billion, beating the $92.07 billion estimate and rising 105.8% year over year. Data Center revenue reached $89.02 billion, up 117%. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 75.0% from 72.5%, which means the company is gaining pricing power as volumes grow. On the August 26, 2026 earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang addressed the supply-demand gap directly: "Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%."
Capital spending by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027, with the cloud industry backlog exceeding $2 trillion. NVIDIA trades at a forward P/E of 13 and a trailing P/E of 23. The company returned about $26 billion to shareholders in Q2 and has $99 billion remaining on its buyback authorization. Its sales per gigawatt keep climbing: roughly $18 billion with Hopper, $25 billion with Blackwell, and $40 billion with Vera Rubin.
The AI trade beyond GPUs
The demand runs well beyond NVIDIA's chips. Broadcom reported AI semiconductor revenue of $16.70 billion, up 221%. Dell Technologies ended its quarter with a record $95 billion AI backlog. Micron Technology said more than 75% of its fiscal 2027 shipments are already committed. Vertiv reported organic orders growth above 100%, and CoreWeave carries a revenue backlog of roughly $104 billion. These names represent the power, networking, memory, and server infrastructure behind every GPU deployment.
For IT and operations leaders managing data center expansion, understanding this supply chain matters as much as tracking chip announcements. The physical buildout is where budget, timeline, and capacity planning intersect. Professionals overseeing infrastructure strategy may find structured guidance in AI IT Strategy Training, which addresses procurement and deployment decisions at the executive level.
Why NVIDIA shares are slipping despite record demand
NVIDIA closed at $186.64 on November 6, 2026, down 21.4% over the past month and 8.8% over the past week. Shares are up just 0.31% year to date. Among the risks, gross margins are expected to bottom at 71% to 72% in Q4 as memory costs rise. There is no China data center compute revenue in the outlook, and days sales outstanding rose to 60 days. Spending is also moving ahead of proven AI returns, which leaves room for overcapacity if demand softens.
Still, a supply-constrained company with a backlog this deep has room to absorb a slowdown. NVIDIA has beaten revenue estimates for six straight quarters. Its next earnings report will test fiscal Q3 guidance of $108 billion ±2% in revenue at roughly 74% gross margin, with Vera Rubin expected to make up about 20% of Data Center revenue.
Why this matters for finance, IT, and operations professionals
The $1.04 trillion import run rate is not an abstract statistic. It represents physical servers, networking gear, and accelerators that will appear on balance sheets, in data center power budgets, and in depreciation schedules over the next 12 to 24 months. For finance teams, the scale of capital deployment raises questions about ROI timelines that have not yet been proven at this magnitude. For IT and operations leaders, the hardware influx means capacity planning, cooling, and power infrastructure must keep pace with procurement. The disconnect between NVIDIA's stock price and the physical buildout suggests the market is pricing in risks that the trade data does not yet show. Watching whether import volumes hold at September's pace through year-end will signal whether the expansion is sustaining or peaking.