Article on AI's impact on software develo...

Economists disagree on whether AI will create a software development hiring boom or bust, according to an Indeed Hiring Lab report published this week. The research arm of the job platform surveyed more than 120 labor economists for its inaugural Labor Market Outlook Survey.

A split forecast for developer jobs

Roughly 1 in 5 economists predicted software development as the most likely role to face job losses amid AI adoption, ahead of accounting and administrative assistance, according to Indeed. At the same time, 13 economists took the opposite view, saying they expect positions in this category to increase as a result of AI adoption. The clash reflects a broader split among industry watchers over whether AI will boost or cut jobs, said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at Indeed's Hiring Lab. In the growth scenario, "these would not be your software development jobs of yesteryear," Ullrich told CIO Dive. "These would be new, different jobs, but they would still fall in that sector."

Developer roles are already changing

Change is the only constant in the downstream effect of enterprise AI efforts, but exactly what those changes will look like remains to be seen. Two years from now, "even if there are the same number of jobs within an organization that a CIO is trying to manage, the skills required for those jobs are likely [going to be] quite different," Ullrich said. "I personally believe that adaptability is going to be extraordinarily important." Software development has faced a reckoning for several years amid the rise of automated coding tools. Initially behaving as supportive acts that suggested lines of code, the tools have evolved into nearly autonomous code generators that can tackle complex engineering tasks. Businesses have retooled the way they approach the labor market, boosting demand for coders with AI skills. AI-augmented software development roles grew nearly 600% in five years, according to a June report from Randstad Digital. Traditional developer roles increased just 28% in the same time frame. The transition has had its own set of challenges: more than 4 in 5 developers said most of the time saved on coding is now devoted to reviewing outputs from AI coding tools, a survey from software platform provider Harness found. For developers looking to build AI skills, an AI Learning Path for Software Developers provides structured training on working alongside AI coding tools.

Cost pressures and the CIO's role

The shifts in software development processes are also contributing to broader concerns over runaway AI bills. Executives are keeping close watch on the cost of infusing AI development tools, coupled with higher data and infrastructure spending. For CIOs, a top priority should be honing training initiatives to help IT workers adapt to change, Ullrich said. "Having employees who feel like they have the ability to upskill and reskill is going to be really important, because there's likely to be a lot of stress amongst employees as this change is happening."

Why this matters for IT and Development professionals

The debate among economists is not an academic exercise for developers. Whether AI eliminates jobs or creates new ones, the role itself is shifting toward AI-assisted workflows. Reviewing, directing, and verifying AI-generated code is becoming a core part of the job, and the ability to adapt is the skill employers will value most. Developers who invest in upskilling now will be better positioned regardless of which forecast holds. For ongoing coverage of how AI is reshaping the field, follow AI for IT & Development.