E-commerce sales will grow faster than overall retail this holiday season, climbing 7.5% to 8.4% year over year to as much as $318.9 billion, according to a Deloitte forecast released Thursday. Total holiday retail sales for the November 2026 through January 2027 period are expected to rise between 4% and 4.8% to a projected $1.7 trillion to $1.71 trillion, surpassing last year's $1.63 trillion in holiday spending.
The widening gap between online and total retail growth signals a structural shift in how consumers spend during the year's most critical sales window. For sales teams, the numbers point to where budgets, promotions, and outreach efforts will need to concentrate.
AI tools reshape the start of the shopping journey
A growing share of consumers now begin product discovery through artificial intelligence platforms rather than traditional search or retailer sites. A recent Bain & Company report found that 24% of holiday shoppers plan to start their discovery process via AI tools such as Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude - a 17% increase from 2025 levels. This shift means sales and marketing teams must account for AI-mediated product research when designing seasonal campaigns and content strategies.
Deloitte economist Akrur Barua attributed part of e-commerce's momentum to "consumers' ongoing use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases across all categories." The behavior spans demographics and product types, not just tech-forward early adopters.
Rising incomes meet persistent value-seeking
Disposable personal income is projected to grow between 4.5% and 5.2% during the holiday season, providing a tailwind for spending. Barua called DPI "a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales." Yet the extra cushion in household budgets has not erased price sensitivity.
Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, said consumers are making "deliberate choices about how they spend." She added: "As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending. These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season."
For sales professionals, the combination of higher disposable income and aggressive promotion-driven switching means discounting strategies and loyalty incentives will play an outsized role in capturing demand. A competitor's seasonal offer can pull away a customer who already has more cash to spend but still hunts for the better deal.
Inventory bets could pay off
Some retailers stocked up early this year to get ahead of potential tariff changes and supply chain disruptions expected around late July. A strong holiday season would validate those inventory decisions. Sales teams at brands and wholesalers that positioned goods early may find themselves with fewer stockouts and faster fulfillment times - two factors that directly affect conversion rates and customer retention during peak shopping weeks.
Understanding how AI for Sales intersects with these seasonal patterns is becoming a practical necessity. When a quarter of shoppers start with an AI tool, the old playbook of search-optimized product pages and email blasts no longer covers the full funnel. Sales leaders who adjust prospecting and nurturing sequences to account for AI-influenced buyer behavior will capture demand that competitors miss.
Why this matters for sales teams
The Deloitte forecast confirms that the 2026 holiday season will be bigger than last year's, but the growth is uneven. E-commerce will claim an outsized share, and AI tools will direct a meaningful portion of that traffic before a human sales rep ever enters the conversation. Sales teams should review their digital presence inside AI-driven discovery channels now - optimizing product data feeds, ensuring accurate pricing visibility, and building promotion calendars that account for cross-retailer switching. For managers overseeing seasonal revenue targets, AI for Sales Managers offers practical frameworks for integrating these tools into forecasting, CRM workflows, and team coaching ahead of the November rush.
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