John Grisham told an audience at the Edinburgh International Book Festival that he fears AI could eventually write books well enough to replace human authors, as publishers look to cut costs.
The 71-year-old author, who has sold more than 300 million copies of his 30-plus novels, spoke with festival host Sir Ian Rankin on Tuesday evening about his concerns for the publishing industry.
Grisham pointed to a steady decline in book sales in the United States over the past three decades and said AI now threatens to accelerate that trend.
"We're terrified because we Americans buy fewer books every year, our kids are reading fewer books every year," he said.
"Publishers are worried, and the consumption of books in America has declined for 30 years. It's a very gradual decline… and now we have AI on top of that, and we're worried about what AI is going to do to publishing."
Grisham described a scenario where AI produces a manuscript that matches the quality of established authors, and publishers sell it under a human name.
"We're going to reach a point where books like ours can be very well written by AI, and somebody puts their name on it, and the publishers sell that," he said.
"It costs them very little. God knows they're paying us a lot. They don't want to do that. Maybe that could happen."
The threat comes at a time when the industry is already adapting to changing reading habits. Grisham said publishers are "doing okay" for now, helped by growth in digital formats.
"Thank God for e-books. They make so much money off e-books and audiobooks," he said.
"Audio is the fastest-growing segment of the publishing business right now, and thank God for that. So, most publishers are doing okay."
What Grisham's warning means for writers
Grisham's comments reflect a broader anxiety among authors about how publishers might use AI to reduce their biggest expense: advances and royalties.
His point about AI-written books being sold under human names is not hypothetical. The technology to generate coherent long-form fiction already exists, and the economic incentive for publishers is clear from his own numbers.
For writers, the practical concern is less about whether AI can match Grisham's output and more about whether publishers will choose to pay for AI drafts instead of human manuscripts. AI for Writers resources now focus on how authors can use these tools to their advantage rather than ignore them.
Grisham's own position is complicated. He is a bestseller whose name still sells books, even in a shrinking market. The writers most exposed to AI-driven cost-cutting are mid-list authors whose advances are modest and whose sales do not justify large publisher investments.
Scriptwriters face a similar dynamic as studios and production companies experiment with AI-generated drafts. An AI Learning Path for Scriptwriters addresses the specific ways screenwriters can adapt their workflows as the technology becomes more common in development rooms.
Why this matters for writers
Grisham's warning points to a specific risk: publishers may not need to replace their bestselling authors with AI - they need to replace everyone else. The economics he described - low production costs, no royalties, no advances - make AI an attractive option for publishers looking to fill their catalogs with mid-list titles.
Writers who treat AI as a tool rather than a threat have a better position than those who ignore it. Learning to use AI for research, outlining, and drafting can cut production time and make a human author more cost-competitive than an AI-only alternative. The alternative - waiting to see if publishers decide they no longer need human mid-list authors - is a gamble with your career.
Your membership also unlocks:
