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AI agent for venture capitalists

Market Sizing Research Agent

A sourced market size estimate with the founder claim compared

ResearchAnalysisFinance
See how it worksGet access
Market Sizing Research Agent: what goes in, what the agent does and what you get

What it does

Founders often quote huge market sizes that do not match the segment their product actually serves. For a deal under review, this agent builds an independent market size estimate. It defines the customer segment, counts customers from public data, and estimates spend per customer from pricing and industry reports. It builds both a top-down and a bottom-up estimate and compares them. If they differ by more than two times, it reviews the assumptions, searches for better data and recalculates. It flags sources older than three years and notes where data is weak. It then compares the result to the founder's claim and explains the gap. The investor decides how to use the estimate. Edge case: the deck counts the whole software market, not the segment the product serves.

How it works

Follow the arrows from top to bottom. The orange dashed arrow is the loop: when a check fails, the agent goes back and tries again.

Start and resultWhat it doesA check on its own workWaits for your OKGoes back and retries
Yes, continueApprovedNo 1 STARTS WHEN Deal moves to review 2 DOES Define the customer segment 3 USES A TOOL Gather counts and pricing data 4 DOES Build top-down and bottom-up estimates 5 CHECKS THE RESULT Are the two estimates within range of each other? If not: review assumptions and look for better data.Back to step 3. 6 DOES Compare to the founder's claim 7 YOU APPROVE Investor reviews 8 RESULT Market sizing note
Read the steps as a list
  1. Deal moves to review
  2. Define the customer segment
  3. Gather counts and pricing data
  4. Build top-down and bottom-up estimates
  5. Are the two estimates within range of each other?If not: review assumptions and look for better data. Back to step 3.
  6. Compare to the founder's claim
  7. Investor reviewsThe agent waits here for your OK.
  8. Market sizing note

How it decides

It accepts the estimate when top-down and bottom-up results are within a set range.

  • Estimates differ by over 2x: rework
  • Source older than 3 years: flag
  • Founder claim over 3x estimate: note

Make it yours

Every agent is a starting point. You choose these settings for your own situation.

  • Allowed ranges
  • Sources
  • Note length
  • Segments to test

What keeps you in control

It always asks you first

  • Sharing with partners or founders

Hard limits

  • Never presents estimates as fact
  • Never contacts founders

It stops when

  • Done: note delivered
  • Stop: no data on the segment

Set it up

We guide you through the set-up, step by step

Members get the full set-up guide for this agent. No technical skills needed: you copy, paste and upload.

10 minto set it up in your AI
5 AIsChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Gemini, Grok
  • One set of instructions to paste into your AI, with the clicks for ChatGPT, Claude, Microsoft 365 Copilot, Gemini and Grok
  • The agent then walks you through connecting your own data, one source at a time
  • A downloadable copy with the flow chart, the rules and the full guide
Get access to this agent

An example run

What happensFor a dental practice software deal, the deck claimed a $40 billion market. The agent's bottom-up estimate was $2.1 billion and top-down $5.5 billion, more than two times apart, so the check failed. It found the top-down used all clinics, not dental only, and recalculated at $2.6 billion. The investor reviewed the note and used the new figure.

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