AI Models Inspired by Sports Analytics Transform Lloyd’s Underwriting Performance Prediction

Hampden Risk Partners and ICMR Release White Paper on AI-Driven Portfolio Strategies

Hampden Risk Partners (HRP) and Insurance Capital Markets Research (ICMR) have jointly published a white paper titled “Winning Portfolio Strategies: Using innovative AI models to predict relative performance.” This report presents a new method to forecast underwriting outcomes in the Lloyd’s of London market by applying AI techniques inspired by sports analytics.

The white paper emphasizes the limitations of traditional underwriting performance predictions, which rely heavily on historical absolute figures influenced by market cycles. Instead, the focus shifts to predicting relative performance—how a syndicate performs compared to its peers. This approach offers a more reliable and insightful measure of underwriting skill, largely unaffected by broader market trends.

Predicting Relative Performance with AI

Markus Gesmann, co-founder of ICMR, explains that the concept of predicting relative performance is critical in sports and equally applicable to Lloyd’s underwriting. ICMR has developed an AI-powered model that forecasts loss ratio performance relative to peer syndicates using carefully curated performance data.

This model delivers objective, data-driven insights that improve accuracy and transparency in portfolio management. It allows stakeholders to make better-informed decisions with a clearer view of expected returns and risks.

Hampden Risk Partners’ Strategic Approach

Chris Sharp, Active Underwriter at HRP, highlights their unique strategy: providing capacity to underwriters with strong track records rather than building internal underwriting teams. This follow-only model supports top-performing syndicates, enabling access to larger market opportunities and improved terms.

The analysis by ICMR confirms that this approach targets growth with quality partners, reduces volatility, and enhances potential rewards. By focusing on relative performance, HRP builds investor confidence through transparent and predictive portfolio insights.

Benefits of the Collaboration

• Enhances underwriting strategy with advanced analytics
• Optimizes capital allocation by identifying high-performing syndicates
• Improves syndicate management with predictive insights
• Provides a competitive advantage within Lloyd’s market

About Hampden Risk Partners (HRP)

HRP Syndicate 2689 operates as an intelligent follow-only syndicate in Lloyd’s market. Since 2023, it has focused on partnering with underwriters who have demonstrated consistent outperformance. Instead of internal underwriting teams, HRP provides capacity to these proven syndicates, applying a disciplined selection process to build a strong portfolio.

About Insurance Capital Markets Research (ICMR)

Founded in 2020 by former Lloyd’s research and analysis leaders, ICMR is a quantitative research firm specializing in the global specialty (re)insurance sector. The firm delivers data, in-depth analysis, and forward-looking models for Lloyd’s syndicates. ICMR supports strategies such as follow-only approaches and investment funds, and it launched the RISX Equity Index in 2021.

For those interested, the full white paper is available through Insurance Capital Markets Research’s website.