BigBear.ai’s $384.9M Backlog Signals Stronger H2 Growth and Investor Opportunity

Will BigBear.ai's $384.9M Backlog Drive H2 Acceleration?

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) stands at a critical point where the rising demand for national security and mission-critical AI solutions intersects with increased U.S. government spending. The company’s diverse AI portfolio, which includes products like Pangiam Threat Detection, veriScan, Trueface, Pro Model AI, ConductorOS, and Shipyard.ai, gives it a competitive edge in securing large-scale, long-term contracts.

As of March 31, 2025, BigBear.ai’s backlog grew 30% year over year, reaching $384.9 million. This growth reflects stronger revenue visibility, driven by the U.S. government’s focus on travel, trade, and border security. Continuous innovation efforts allow BigBear.ai to stay aligned with evolving market needs, acting as a catalyst for future expansion.

A recent contract with the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Staff J35’s Orion Decision Support Platform underlines BigBear.ai’s role in mission-critical AI applications backed by increased defense spending. The company maintains its 2025 revenue outlook between $160 million and $180 million, representing a 1.1% to 13.8% increase year over year.

Market risks like rising operating expenses and potential project delays still require attention. However, revenue estimates suggest growth acceleration in the second half of 2025, with third and fourth-quarter revenue expected to increase by 6.3% and 7.3%, respectively. The first half’s average growth is around 4%, indicating a stronger performance in H2.

Contract Wins Strengthen the Market

BigBear.ai is not alone in capitalizing on growing AI demand within government sectors. Other established companies like C3.ai and Booz Allen Hamilton also report solid contract wins and backlog growth.

• C3.ai, a California-based enterprise AI company, reported a 419% year-over-year increase in partner-supported bookings in its fiscal Q4 2025. The company renewed and expanded its agreement with Baker Hughes and closed numerous deals through partners like Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud, and McKinsey & Company.
• Booz Allen Hamilton, headquartered in Virginia, focuses on intelligence, AI, and digital transformation. It recorded a 15.3% increase year over year in its total backlog, reaching $37.03 billion as of fiscal 2025, benefiting from consulting-led AI deployments across defense and homeland security missions.

BBAI Stock Performance and Valuation

Shares of BigBear.ai have risen 33.4% over the past three months, outperforming the broader Computers - IT Services industry, the Computer and Technology sector, and the S&P 500 index. Despite this, BBAI trades at a discount compared to its industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 6.53X. This discounted valuation may offer an attractive entry point for investors interested in the government AI sector.

Given the positive market fundamentals and growing revenue visibility, BBAI’s valuation could move toward a premium over time.

EPS and Earnings Estimate Trends

BigBear.ai’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined slightly over the past 60 days to projected losses of 41 cents and 21 cents per share, respectively. Despite this, these figures imply year-over-year EPS growth of 62.7% in 2025 and 49.2% in 2026.

Currently, BBAI holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), reflecting some caution among analysts.

For professionals working in government sectors, particularly those involved with national security and defense technology procurement, BigBear.ai’s expanding backlog and government contracts signal ongoing investment in AI capabilities. Staying informed about such companies can provide insights into evolving technology priorities and potential partnership opportunities.

For those interested in advancing AI skills relevant to government applications, exploring specialized courses and certifications can be valuable. Resources like Complete AI Training offer tailored programs that cover AI tools and solutions critical for public sector roles.