Demand History Cleansing Agent

A forecast is only as good as the history behind it, and raw sales history is full of stockouts, one-off bulk orders and data errors. At the start of each forecast cycle, this agent pulls order, shipment and stockout history and flags points more than three standard deviations from each item's pattern, plus stockout periods, bulk orders, promotions and returns. It proposes adjustments, such as replacing a stockout week with expected demand. It then reruns the baseline forecast on both cleaned and raw history and compares accuracy on a holdout period. An adjustment is kept only if accuracy stays the same or improves. If it gets worse, the agent reverses that adjustment and retests. Adjustments over 20 percent of an item's volume need the planner's approval. Edge case: a permanent customer loss is treated as a level change, not an outlier.