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AI agent for business unit managers

Quarterly Planning Assumption Check Agent

Keep the plan honest by testing its assumptions and updating the numbers when they break.

MonitoringManagementExecutives and strategy
See how it worksGet access
Quarterly Planning Assumption Check Agent: what goes in, what the agent does and what you get

What it does

A quarterly plan assumes things such as a 5% price rise holding, a customer renewing or a supplier delivering on time. By mid-quarter some have changed and no one updated the plan. This agent lists the assumptions behind the plan and checks each against new data: sales, prices, supplier status and market figures. It flags broken ones, reruns the plan with updated numbers and shows the effect on targets. It repeats after owners reply. The manager approves any plan change. Edge case: an assumption that cannot be checked because no data exists is listed as untested and given an owner.

How it works

Follow the arrows from top to bottom. The orange dashed arrow is the loop: when a check fails, the agent goes back and tries again.

Start and resultWhat it doesA check on its own workWaits for your OKGoes back and retries
Yes, continueApprovedYes, continueNoNo 1 STARTS WHEN Quarterly plan is approved 2 USES A TOOL List the assumptions with owners and tolerances 3 USES A TOOL Read current data for each assumption 4 CHECKS THE RESULT Is each assumption within tolerance? If not: Mark it as broken and ask the owner for arevised value. Back to step 2. 5 DOES Rerun the plan numbers with the revised values 6 DOES Compare the new result with the targets 7 USES A TOOL Draft options if a target is at risk 8 YOU APPROVE Manager approves any plan change 9 CHECKS THE RESULT Do the updated owner replies change any assumption? If not: Recheck and rerun the plan. Back to step 2. 10 RESULT Assumption status and updated plan
Read the steps as a list
  1. Quarterly plan is approved
  2. List the assumptions with owners and tolerances
  3. Read current data for each assumption
  4. Is each assumption within tolerance?If not: Mark it as broken and ask the owner for a revised value. Back to step 2.
  5. Rerun the plan numbers with the revised values
  6. Compare the new result with the targets
  7. Draft options if a target is at risk
  8. Manager approves any plan changeThe agent waits here for your OK.
  9. Do the updated owner replies change any assumption?If not: Recheck and rerun the plan. Back to step 2.
  10. Assumption status and updated plan

How it decides

Compares each assumption to current data; one that is off by more than its tolerance is broken and triggers a plan rerun.

  • Tolerance default is 10% of the assumption value
  • Untested assumptions get an owner and a date
  • Two broken assumptions in one area trigger a full review
  • Plan changes require manager approval

Make it yours

Every agent is a starting point. You choose these settings for your own situation.

  • Tolerance per assumption (default 10%)
  • Check frequency (default 2 weeks)
  • Data sources
  • Owners
  • Targets to track

What keeps you in control

It always asks you first

  • Any change to the plan or targets
  • Any message to owners
  • Any change to an assumption owner

Hard limits

  • Never change the plan itself
  • Never remove an assumption

It stops when

  • Done: all assumptions tested and plan current
  • Stop: quarter ends
  • Stop: plan replaced

Set it up

We guide you through the set-up, step by step

Members get the full set-up guide for this agent. No technical skills needed: you copy, paste and upload.

10 minto set it up in your AI
5 AIsChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Gemini, Grok
  • One set of instructions to paste into your AI, with the clicks for ChatGPT, Claude, Microsoft 365 Copilot, Gemini and Grok
  • The agent then walks you through connecting your own data, one source at a time
  • A downloadable copy with the flow chart, the rules and the full guide
Get access to this agent

An example run

What happensThe plan assumes a 5% price increase holds with no volume loss. Mid-quarter data shows volume down 9% in the largest segment, beyond the 10% tolerance when combined with price. The check fails and the agent asks the owner for a new value. It reruns revenue at a 7% volume loss, showing a 400,000 shortfall. The manager approves a cost hold.

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