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AI agent for economists

Seasonal Adjustment and Outlier Check Agent

Produce a seasonally adjusted series with each outlier handled and explained

DecisionsAnalysisQuality controlFinanceGovernment
See how it worksGet access
Seasonal Adjustment and Outlier Check Agent: what goes in, what the agent does and what you get

What it does

A monthly series shows a spike that turns out to be a strike, and the trend estimate swings. This agent seasonally adjusts each series and flags outliers and structural breaks. It checks each flagged point against a list of known events, such as strikes, storms, policy changes and data revisions. It tries alternative treatments, such as leaving the point, replacing it with an interpolated value or adding an intervention variable, and reruns the adjustment for each. It compares the trend and seasonal factors across treatments and records which choice changes the result most. It then proposes a treatment for each outlier with the reason. The economist approves how each is handled. Edge case: a flagged point close to the end of the series is marked as unstable and revisited next month.

How it works

Follow the arrows from top to bottom. The orange dashed arrow is the loop: when a check fails, the agent goes back and tries again.

Start and resultWhat it doesA check on its own workWaits for your OKGoes back and retries
Yes, continueYes, continueApprovedNoNo 1 STARTS WHEN New data arrives 2 USES A TOOL Seasonally adjust each series 3 DOES Flag outliers and structural breaks 4 USES A TOOL Check each flagged point against known events 5 CHECKS THE RESULT Is every flagged point explained by an event orrevision? If not: Mark it unexplained and test alternativetreatments. Back to step 3. 6 USES A TOOL Rerun the adjustment with each treatment 7 CHECKS THE RESULT Do the trend and seasonal factors stay stable acrosstreatments? If not: Add the intervention variable and rerun. Back tostep 6. 8 DOES Draft the treatment proposal for each outlier 9 YOU APPROVE Economist approves how each outlier is handled 10 RESULT Adjusted series and treatment log
Read the steps as a list
  1. New data arrives
  2. Seasonally adjust each series
  3. Flag outliers and structural breaks
  4. Check each flagged point against known events
  5. Is every flagged point explained by an event or revision?If not: Mark it unexplained and test alternative treatments. Back to step 3.
  6. Rerun the adjustment with each treatment
  7. Do the trend and seasonal factors stay stable across treatments?If not: Add the intervention variable and rerun. Back to step 6.
  8. Draft the treatment proposal for each outlier
  9. Economist approves how each outlier is handledThe agent waits here for your OK.
  10. Adjusted series and treatment log

How it decides

It flags points more than 3.5 standard deviations from the fitted value and prefers the treatment that explains the point with a known event.

  • Flag points beyond 3.5 standard deviations
  • Prefer treatments linked to a documented event
  • Mark points in the last 3 months as unstable
  • Keep every treatment in the log

Make it yours

Every agent is a starting point. You choose these settings for your own situation.

  • Outlier threshold (default 3.5 standard deviations)
  • Event calendar (default the economist's list)
  • Unstable window (default last 3 months)
  • Adjustment method (default the standard in use)

What keeps you in control

It always asks you first

  • Economist approves the treatment of each outlier

Hard limits

  • Never delete data points
  • Never publish adjusted figures without approval
  • Document every treatment

It stops when

  • Done: Series adjusted and treatments approved
  • Stop: Data quality problem found, so hand to the economist

Set it up

We guide you through the set-up, step by step

Members get the full set-up guide for this agent. No technical skills needed: you copy, paste and upload.

10 minto set it up in your AI
5 AIsChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Gemini, Grok
  • One set of instructions to paste into your AI, with the clicks for ChatGPT, Claude, Microsoft 365 Copilot, Gemini and Grok
  • The agent then walks you through connecting your own data, one source at a time
  • A downloadable copy with the flow chart, the rules and the full guide
Get access to this agent

An example run

What happensA retail series spikes 11 percent in March. The agent finds a strike in the event calendar and flags it. It tests three treatments and the trend changes 0.4 points with no treatment but only 0.05 with an intervention variable. It proposes the intervention variable. The economist approves it and notes the last 2 months as unstable.

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