CFO Playbook for Uncertainty: What to Do When Nothing Has a Precedent
Good morning. For many finance leaders, "uncertainty" and "unprecedented" feel like a second language. As one CFO quipped to Yuval Atsmon, CFO of McKinsey, "Can we just have something that has a precedent?" The fatigue is real.
Following President Donald Trump's so-called Liberation Day, questions spiked around the new administration's economic and geopolitical agenda. Atsmon's focus during the peak was simple: act on what you can control. "The worst thing is inaction," he said. Movement builds resilience.
Control What You Can: A Shortlist for CFOs
- Improve liquidity: extend runway, tighten working capital, and stress-test covenants.
- Strip friction from operations: cycle-time reductions, vendor standardization, and automation where ROI is clear.
- Cut or delay nonessential costs: sequence spend by payback and strategic importance.
- Triage investments: protect "must-win" bets; pause inertia-driven projects.
Don't Freeze AI-Fix Your Portfolio
Atsmon was direct: "I wouldn't recommend anyone stop making AI investments at this moment." Defensive moves are natural, but this is also the time to revisit long-held strategies and grab openings your competitors will miss.
One practical lens: many corporate actions are still driven by inertia, not strategy. Prune anything that doesn't produce clear cash flow, capability, or competitive position in the next 12-24 months.
Where AI Is (and Isn't) Ready
Resource allocation increasingly runs through the technology function. That's different from the last century-and it changes how finance steers capital. McKinsey already routes up to 30% of its tasks through AI (faster research, better summarization), but "you can't really do a full strategic analysis yet," Atsmon noted. Timelines vary by company and use case.
A Practical AI Mix for Finance Leaders
- 80% on productivity for growth: faster pricing cycles, smarter pipeline scoring, more client-facing output with the same headcount.
- 20% on productivity for efficiency: reporting automation, reconciliations, contract reviews, and internal knowledge retrieval.
- Aim to redeploy time, not cut people. The upside lives in better use of high-skill hours.
- Treat AI as a cross-functional effort (Finance, Tech, Ops, Risk). Finance sets pace and guardrails-fast enough to stay competitive, steady enough to avoid cash strain.
Execution: 30/60/90-Day Moves
- 30 days: inventory AI pilots, define success metrics, and ringfence budget for 2-3 near-term wins.
- 60 days: shift 10-20% of recurring analysis and research to AI-assisted workflows; retrain teams on prompt discipline and review procedures.
- 90 days: retire duplicative tools, codify data access policies, and publish a quarterly AI ROI scorecard for leadership.
Macro Signals to Watch
S&P Global Ratings' "Global Economic Outlook Q1 2026" points to better-than-expected growth into 2026, supported by AI-driven investment and exports-while warning on policy uncertainty, labor tightness, bond yields, and the risk AI underdelivers on earnings. Read the research hub.
In financial services M&A, momentum from earlier in 2025 carried into Q3, but inflation, credit quality, trade policy, and geopolitics kept risk high. Deal discipline and integration speed matter more than headlines.
Leaderboard: New CFO Appointments
- Jennifer DiRico was appointed EVP and CFO of PTC (Nasdaq: PTC), effective Jan. 1. She currently serves as CFO of Commvault and previously held finance and operations roles at Toast. She succeeds Kristian Talvitie, who will serve as CFO through Dec. 31.
- David Hastings was appointed CFO of Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: TRVI), effective Jan. 6. He brings 25+ years of finance leadership, including CFO roles at Arbutus and Unilife, and EVP/CFO at Incyte.
Overheard
"In the days after the acquisition was completed, I was asked during a media interview if good luck was a factor in bringing together these two tech industry stalwarts. Replace good luck with good timing, and the answer is a resounding, 'Yes!'" - Amit Walia, CEO of Informatica, a Salesforce company, on why the timing worked for Salesforce's $8 billion acquisition of Informatica.
Your Weekly CFO Checklist
- Run cash and covenant reviews with a rolling 13-week view.
- Reprice risk: refresh FX/rate hedges and customer credit limits.
- Sequence spend by payback period; freeze noncritical backfills.
- Stand up a Finance-Tech portfolio board; kill stalled pilots.
- Deploy AI for research, summarization, and stakeholder reporting.
- Tighten vendor terms and reduce tool sprawl.
- Publish a one-page scenario plan: base, bull, bear-triggers and actions.
Want a shortcut on AI tools for finance?
For a curated view of finance-ready AI tools and use cases, this reference can save cycles: 10B+ AI Tools for Finance.
The Bottom Line
Act on what is in your control. Keep investing in AI where ROI is provable. Set the pace so your company moves fast enough to win-and steady enough to endure. Plan for the best, prepare for the worst, and keep your time focused on what compounds.
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