New Concordia AI Forecast Highlights Policy Reform as Key to Moderating Canadian Home Prices
BURLINGTON, ON, July 29, 2025 /CNW/ – A recent study from the John Molson School of Business at Concordia University reveals actionable insights for policymakers aiming to ease Canada’s housing challenges. As governments at all levels seek ways to increase housing supply, this analysis shows that targeted policy reforms and managing construction costs can significantly influence housing completions and prices.
The research, developed in partnership with Equiton and supported by the Equiton Research Fund in Real Estate, uses artificial intelligence to quantify how regulations and rising input costs impact housing supply. The report, Breaking Ground: AI-Driven Analysis of How Policy Reform Can Unleash Canadian Housing Supply, provides clear data on how policy decisions shape housing markets and offers evidence-based strategies to better align supply with demand.
Policy Barriers and Construction Costs Are Critical
Christopher Wein, COO of Equiton Developments, emphasizes the importance of reducing obstacles in the housing development process. “This research confirms what many in housing advocacy have said: lowering policy barriers and construction expenses is essential to tackling the housing crisis. For the first time, we can see these effects quantified, giving stakeholders the confidence to pursue effective reforms.”
Dr. Erkan Yönder, Associate Professor of Real Estate and Finance and lead researcher, highlights that streamlining approval processes and cutting red tape can be implemented quickly and at low cost, producing meaningful results. “Ignoring these tools carries a high price. Addressing policy delays and restrictions is a practical initial step toward improving housing supply.”
Key Findings That Matter for Real Estate Professionals
- A 10% reduction in building restrictions across Canada can increase annual home completions nearly by the same amount. Cutting approval delays by 10% adds another 3% boost.
- Conversely, a 10% rise in input costs—driven mainly by materials, taxes, fees, and labour—can decrease housing completions by 25% to 35%, particularly impacting apartment-style developments.
- Toronto’s median home price could reach $1.8 million by 2032 if current trends continue. Doubling completions could moderate prices to around $1.6 million.
- In Vancouver, home prices may exceed $2.8 million by 2032. Aggressive increases in supply could temper this to approximately $2.5 million.
- Montreal’s prices rise across all scenarios, while Calgary’s price growth is more sensitive to housing completions and population changes.
About the Research and Experts
This study builds on prior AI-driven research by Dr. Erkan Yönder and his team, which projected long-term rent trends in major Canadian cities including Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, and Calgary. Dr. Yönder specializes in real estate finance, sustainable real estate, and commercial property, with work recognized by multiple awards and grants. His academic contributions have been presented at top institutions such as MIT, Yale, UCLA, and Cornell.
Christopher Wein brings over 25 years of experience in real estate development across Canada and the U.S., managing projects ranging from low-rise builds to skyscrapers. As COO of Equiton Developments, he focuses on driving efficient, large-scale housing development initiatives.
About Equiton
Equiton is a private real estate investment firm dedicated to making institutional-quality real estate accessible through diverse investment solutions. The firm supports informed market participation via independent research and advocacy, including involvement with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce's Housing and Development Strategy Council.
Backed by Equiton Living and Equiton Developments, the company offers expert-led property management and development services aimed at delivering strong outcomes for investors and lasting value for residents. For more information, visit www.equiton.com.
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