AI, Geospatial Insight and Risk Control Will Define the Next Decade of Specialty Lines

AI will drive the next decade of specialty lines, says Intact's Melissa Goto

Property and casualty carriers face sharper climate volatility and heavier catastrophe losses. Hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are redrawing risk, forcing pricing and capacity decisions under tighter timelines.

"We're seeing unprecedented weather activity," said Melissa Goto, deputy senior vice president, specialty lines, North America at Intact Specialty Solutions. "The question is how do we use technology not just to assess and price risk, but to help clients prepare and recover when events occur?"

From hindsight to foresight in underwriting

Geospatial data and AI models are moving underwriting from backward-looking averages to forward climate scenarios. Underwriters can review roof conditions, defensible space, and surrounding exposures via high-resolution imagery, while AI simulations stress-test accounts under different emission pathways and timelines.

"Traditional catastrophe models are evolving," Goto said. "Computing gains let us process more data, faster, and add climate variables for hurricanes and flooding. Wildfires remain harder where human activity is involved, but AI-driven simulations should improve insight there as well."

Intact Insurance Specialty Solutions has invested over $500 million in advanced technology-drones, satellites, aerial imagery, and climate analytics-to extend beyond historical weather and into forward-looking scenario modeling.

Risk control remains the anchor

Advanced analytics do not replace underwriting fundamentals. They pair with site visits and risk control consultations. Intact draws on hundreds of risk control representatives globally to validate data, assess controls, and close gaps.

"Risk control is crucial," Goto noted. "We review business continuity planning and guide clients on practical measures-storm shutters, reinforced roofs, and other upgrades-that reduce loss severity."

That balance matters most in high-exposure regions like California, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast, where climate risk is intensifying and coverage can be hard to secure.

What brokers and insureds should do now

• Engage carriers early on catastrophe-exposed accounts; expect tighter timelines and more data requests.
• Be ready to discuss geospatial analytics, AI simulations, and climate scenarios when placing or renewing.
• Prioritize pre-loss improvements: reinforced roofing, shutters, defensible space, elevation, flood barriers.
• Build, test, and update business continuity plans; document response protocols and vendor lists.
• Use risk control consultations to validate on-site conditions and align upgrades with underwriting expectations.

Reinsurance keeps the market disciplined

Rising catastrophe losses have pushed reinsurers to tighten capacity and adjust pricing. Goto emphasized collaboration: aligning with reinsurers to craft workable solutions for insureds and brokers, even as terms grow more selective in hurricane-prone states.

Expect capacity pressure to persist. Early engagement with carriers and reinsurers will be key to structuring programs and setting client expectations.

Where AI fits next

Over the next decade, Goto expects broader AI use across specialty lines. Simulation tech will help anticipate outcomes under various emission pathways and timeframes, refining pricing, coverage design, and mitigation strategies.

"AI is still in its infancy," Goto said. "You'll see it used alongside underwriting fundamentals, risk control, and boots on the ground."

Helpful resources

• NOAA: Billion-dollar disaster trends
• IPCC AR6: Physical science basis and emissions pathways
• Practical AI upskilling by job function

"Our purpose is to help people in good times and bad," Goto added. "Between our model tools, underwriters, and risk control teams, we want to work together to find solutions for clients."