AI jitters, Walmart earnings, and a pivotal PCE read: what's moving markets this week

What to watch this week: Walmart earnings, spending data, and fresh AI shockwaves

Last week ended with a slow bleed on the surface and bigger damage underneath. The Nasdaq slipped 0.2% Friday to cap a 2.1% weekly loss, while the S&P 500 finished down 1.4% for the week despite a flat close. The Dow eked out a 0.1% Friday gain and still fell 1.2% on the week.

The driver: mounting fear that new AI tools will hit profits across software, finance, retail, and logistics sooner than models assume. Expect that question-how fast and where AI compresses margins-to stay front and center in the days ahead.

The macro setup

Two forces are colliding: softer inflation data and messy labor trends. January CPI cooled more than expected, but stickier components inside services and goods keep the disinflation story from being a straight line. Meanwhile, January payrolls surprised to the upside, then prior-year revisions chopped hundreds of thousands of jobs, muddling the signal.

Translation for rates: steady for now. As of Friday afternoon, futures leaned a bit over 50% toward a quarter-point cut by June, implying a 3.25%-3.5% target range by midyear. With Chair Powell's term ending in May and a potential handoff to Kevin Warsh, policy communication could matter almost as much as the data.

AI sell-now, ask-later risk

The tape is punishing anything that looks exposed to AI-enabled efficiency. After early February pressure on software leaders like Salesforce and ServiceNow, selling spread to consumer internet and then logistics. Even a quirky press release from a karaoke-device company touting an AI logistics platform was enough to knock CH Robinson and Universal Logistics double digits on the week-evidence that sentiment is jumpy and headline-driven. For analysts and operators trying to quantify that risk in distribution and inventory systems, the AI Learning Path for Supply Chain Analysts offers practical frameworks.

Big Tech wasn't spared, with Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon lower Friday despite capex plans that keep expanding. Earnings misses at AppLovin and Pinterest didn't help software's bid, either. Until companies show how they protect pricing and mix under AI, the default setting looks like discount first, verify later.

What to watch this week

Friday's PCE is the main macro event, giving a clean read on holiday spending and inflation dynamics. For a refresher on methodology, see the BEA's PCE overview (BEA). The University of Michigan's sentiment update will show whether consumer vibes are catching up to the cooling-inflation story.

Thursday's Walmart report is the consumer tell-traffic, mix, and price elasticity across grocery and general merchandise. It's also the first print under new CEO John Furner, which raises the bar for guidance clarity. On the energy side, results and commentary from Constellation Energy, Energy Transfer, and Southern Company will be parsed for signs that AI data-center demand is bending load growth and contract structures.

Portfolio playbook (for finance pros)

• Bias toward cash generators with pricing power and clean AI narratives. Utilities and power names levered to data-center demand have the tailwind; pair them against defensives lacking growth.
• In software and logistics, lean into companies that can monetize AI efficiency instead of getting undercut by it. Listen for proof points: SKU-level margin retention, time-to-value metrics, and unit economics on AI features.
• Keep optionality into Friday: short-dated hedges around PCE if your book is long duration or high-multiple growth. Watch factor skews-recent action favored quality and earnings stability over raw beta.
• Consumer lens: Walmart's traffic and basket data can front-run revisions across staples, discounters, and last-mile delivery. Adjust exposure if elasticity or trade-down trends inflect. Operations and transportation teams can also consult the AI Learning Path for Transportation Managers for approaches to optimize fleet and distribution efficiency.

Key data checkpoints

• PCE (Dec): Headline and core expected at +0.3% m/m; YoY near 2.8%-2.9%. Methodology and history: BEA PCE.
• CPI context: January's downside surprise helped, but stickier non-shelter services and core goods still matter for persistence. Reference: BLS CPI.
• University of Michigan sentiment (Feb final): Does confidence confirm spending resilience or flag a fade?
• FOMC minutes (Jan 28): Any color on cuts timing and balance-sheet run-off angles.

Economic and earnings calendar

Monday

• Market: US closed for Presidents' Day
• Economic data: None
• Earnings: BHP Group (BHP), Sonoco Products (SON), Otter Tail (OTTR), ReNew Energy Global (RNW)

Tuesday

• Economic data: ADP weekly employment change (prior 6,500); Empire Manufacturing (Feb, 8.7 cons vs 7.7 prior); NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb, 37 prior)
• Earnings: Medtronic (MDT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Constellation Energy (CEG), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Republic Services (RSG), Energy Transfer (ET), Vulcan Materials (VMC), EQT (EQT), Kenvue (KVUE), DTE Energy (DTE), FirstEnergy (FE), Devon Energy (DVN), Expand Energy (EXE), Leidos (LDOS), InterContinental Hotels (IHG), Genuine Parts (GPC), Sunoco (SUN)

Wednesday

• Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications (w/e Feb 13, prior -0.3%); Durable Goods Orders (Dec prelim, -1.7% cons vs +5.3% prior); Housing Starts (Dec, 1.32M cons); Industrial Production (Jan, +0.4% cons vs +0.4% prior); FOMC minutes (Jan 28)
• Earnings: Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Lloyds Banking Group (LYG), CRH (CRH), Moody's (MCO), Carvana (CVNA), DoorDash (DASH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Kinross Gold (KGC), Garmin (GRMN), eBay (EBAY), Nutrien (NTR), Texas Pacific Land (TPL), Edison International (EIX), American Water Works (AWK), Verisk (VRSK), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Royal Gold (RGLD), Global Payments (GPN), Reliance (RS), Western Midstream (WES), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), Equinox Gold (EQX), Figma (FIG), HF Sinclair (DINO), Molson Coors (TAP), Wingstop (WING), Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH)

Thursday

• Economic data: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Feb, 7.7 cons vs 12.6 prior); Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Feb 14, prior 227k); Continuing Claims (w/e Feb 7, prior 1.86M)
• Earnings: Walmart (WMT), Rio Tinto (RIO), Deere (DE), Newmont (NEM), Southern Company (SO), Quanta Services (PWR), Targa Resources (TRGP), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Consolidated Edison (ED), Cenovus Energy (CVE), Live Nation (LYV), Copart (CPRT), Extra Space Storage (EXR), Teck Resources (TECK), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), Alliant Energy (LNT), Fidelity National Financial (FNF), Guardant Health (GH), DT Midstream (DTM), American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

Friday

• Economic data: PCE Price Index (Dec: +0.3% m/m cons vs +0.2% prior; +2.8% y/y cons); Core PCE (Dec: +0.3% m/m cons vs +0.2% prior; +2.9% y/y cons vs +2.8% prior); S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Feb prelim, prior 52.4); S&P Global US Services PMI (Feb prelim, prior 52.7); University of Michigan Sentiment (Feb final, 56.9 cons vs 57.3 prior)
• Earnings: AngloGold Ashanti (AU), PPL (PPL), Lamar Advertising (LAMR), Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), Hudbay Minerals (HBM), Portland General Electric (POR), Balchem (BCPC), Array Digital Infrastructure (AD), Western Union (WU)

Bottom line

AI is compressing multiples where the narrative is loose and rewarding names with hard data to back moats and demand. Into Walmart and PCE, keep risk tight, listen for signals that move models (price, mix, load growth), and be ready to rotate if the data says so.

If you're building team capability around AI's impact on finance workflows, this curated list may help: AI tools for finance.