AI, Nuclear Verdicts, and the Future of Trucking Insurance

Trucking Insurance at a Crossroads: AI, Nuclear Verdicts, and What Comes Next

Trucking insurance is under pressure from two forces at once: rising nuclear verdicts and the arrival of AI-driven underwriting and claims. Together, they are changing how policies are priced, structured and defended.

Verdicts in the tens of millions have pushed premiums higher and limits lower. Even with the Texas Supreme Court's reversal of a $100 million verdict against Werner Enterprises earlier this year, the legal tide still leans against carriers-especially small operators who lack balance sheet flexibility.

The Legal Climate: Costs Up, Limits Down

Insurers are pulling back capacity, pushing fleets into higher deductibles and tighter terms. Litigation risk is the swing factor in pricing and retention.

For context on verdict trends, see industry research on nuclear verdicts and their impact on trucking from the American Transportation Research Institute here.

What Signals Insurability Right Now

• Safety tech: ADAS, in-cab and road-facing cameras, and speed limiters reduce loss severity and help defend claims.
• Hiring and training: Documented standards, MVR discipline, skill testing and ongoing coaching.
• Operational controls: Fatigue management, route risk controls, and maintenance compliance.
• Data discipline: Clean, consistent telematics and ELD data that can be used-and defended-in court.

AI and Telematics: From Talking Point to Pricing Input

Two models are emerging. Newer players push "AI-first" pricing using real-time signals from ELDs and dashcams to rate on actual risk. Traditional carriers are deploying AI more cautiously to support underwriters and claims teams, not replace them.

Practical gains today include faster risk scoring, first notice triage, fraud flags, subrogation targeting and litigation analytics. Adoption is paced by regulatory scrutiny, explainability requirements and insurer risk appetite.

Underwriting and Product Design in a Hard Market

• Higher retentions: Expect larger deductibles/SIRs and tighter aggregates.
• Limits discipline: Layered towers and re-underwritten excess placements.
• Behavior-rated pricing: Usage-based and safety-score credits tied to verified telematics.
• Documentation over promises: Credits and terms hinge on data quality, not intent.

Data, Evidence and Compliance

ELD and camera data help settle claims and defend against inflated demands. They also create discovery exposure. Set clear retention windows, access controls and litigation hold procedures-before a loss occurs.

Ensure your data practices align with federal rules and company policy. For background on ELD requirements, see the FMCSA overview here.

Claims Strategy for a High-Severity Era

• Early evidence capture: Preserve video, telematics and maintenance records immediately.
• Defense-ready narratives: Pair data with driver training records and policy adherence.
• Triage and resolve: Use severity scoring to decide early settlement vs. defense investment.
• Reptile theory countermeasures: Prep witnesses and experts to address safety arguments with facts and data.

Action Plan for Insurance Teams (Next 90 Days)

• Audit active accounts for ADAS/camera adoption, hiring controls and telematics quality. Tie findings to credits or conditions.
• Stand up an AI-supported underwriting workbench for loss runs, safety signals and prior-litigation indicators.
• Define a data retention and litigation hold policy for ELD and video-written, tested and acknowledged.
• Refit product terms: increase minimum deductibles, tighten warranties/conditions, clarify data-sharing requirements.
• Pilot a behavior-linked rating plan with a willing fleet; measure loss ratio delta and operational friction.
• Create a nuclear-verdict playbook: panel counsel, expert roster, evidence checklist and comms protocols.

What to Watch Next

• Court treatment of AI-generated insights and video analytics as evidence.
• Market capacity for excess layers if verdict severity continues.
• Standardization of telematics data feeds across carriers and TPAs.

The market is hard, but it's not closed. Fleets that prove discipline through technology, training and clean data will earn capacity. Insurers that operationalize AI-without overpromising-will write smarter, defend better and keep volatility in check.

If your underwriting or claims teams need structured upskilling on AI tools and workflows, explore role-based training options here.