Anthropic CEO Warns of Up to 20% Unemployment from AI, Economists Remain Skeptical
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, recently expressed concern that artificial intelligence could eliminate up to half of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next five years. He believes policymakers may be downplaying the potential for major employment disruption caused by AI advancements.
Amodei’s fears come amid other labor market risks, such as the impact of tariffs on imports, post-pandemic layoffs, and policies favoring employers over workers. His comments surfaced during Anthropic’s first developer conference, Code with Claude, and an interview with Axios, where he suggested unemployment could hit 10 to 20 percent within one to five years.
He emphasized the responsibility of AI developers to be transparent about what’s coming. According to Amodei, this issue isn’t getting enough attention from policymakers or the public.
Business Leaders See AI Changing Jobs, But Not Necessarily Eliminating Them
Concerns about AI’s impact on employment do appear in reports like the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025. This report surveyed around 11,000 executives and found that nearly half of organizations plan to shift their business models toward AI-driven opportunities.
- 49% expect to reorient their business models around AI.
- 47% plan to transition employees from AI-disrupted roles to other positions.
- 41% anticipate downsizing their workforce as AI takes over certain tasks.
The report also notes that workers can expect about 39% of their current skill sets to become outdated or transformed between 2025 and 2030, highlighting the need for continuous learning and adaptation.
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna recently shared that AI and automation have actually increased total employment at IBM by enabling investment in other areas. However, many of these new roles appear to be outside the US, particularly in lower-wage countries like India.
Economists See a More Nuanced Impact of AI on Jobs
While Amodei’s warnings are serious, many economists view the impact of AI on employment as more moderate. A recent paper titled "Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market" by researchers from Yale, Northwestern, and MIT found AI’s effect on jobs to be limited due to labor market adaptation.
The study explains that although jobs highly exposed to AI may see reduced demand, increased firm productivity can boost overall employment. Dimitris Papanikolaou, a co-author and finance professor at Northwestern, points out that AI’s impact depends on how well it can perform the full range of tasks in a job. If AI handles only some tasks, workers can focus on others, balancing out job losses.
Similarly, economists Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard found in their study on AI chatbots in Denmark that these tools had minimal effect on employment or wages across various occupations during 2023 and 2024.
Humlum noted that even historically transformative technologies like steam power, electricity, and computers took decades to significantly affect the economy, and none caused long-term mass unemployment.
Why Such Divergent Views?
Given the uncertainty, why would Amodei make such a bold prediction? From a strategic standpoint, emphasizing the disruptive potential of AI can raise awareness among policymakers and ensure that companies like Anthropic have a strong voice in shaping future regulations.
For IT and development professionals, this means staying informed about AI’s evolving role in the workplace is crucial. Upskilling and adapting to new AI tools will be key to maintaining relevance as job roles shift.
Those interested in enhancing their AI skills can explore practical courses offered at Complete AI Training, which provide focused learning paths for developers and IT professionals.
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