Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG): Strong results, active AI rollout, and a stock that's still lagging
Booking Holdings just ran a busy stretch: record Q3 results, fresh institutional interest, new AI features across brands, and a leadership change at Priceline. Yet the stock isn't keeping up with the market.
As of November 28, 2025, shares closed near $4,914.69, roughly mid-range of the past year's $4,096-$5,839 band. That puts the market cap in the $150-160 billion range.
Where the stock sits now
Performance trails the S&P 500 for 2025 despite record earnings. Over the past year BKNG is down about 8.6% versus the S&P 500 up about 10.5%; year-to-date it's down roughly 7.8% versus the S&P 500 up about 11.2%. BKNG has outpaced the Amplify Travel Tech ETF (AWAY), which is down around 8.6%.
Valuation and ownership snapshot:
- Market cap: ~$151-158B
- P/E: ~32x trailing
- PEG: ~1.6
- Dividend: $9.60 quarterly ($38.40 annual), ~0.8% yield
- Institutional ownership: ~96% of float; short interest ~1.8%
Q3 2025: beat on growth and margins, guidance stayed firm
- Revenue: $9.01B, up ~13% year over year
- Gross bookings: $49.7B, up 14%
- Adjusted EPS: ~$99.50, up ~18-19%
- Room nights: 323M, up 8.2%
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: ~47%, up over 100 bps; marketing efficiency improved
Management lifted its cost-savings target to $500-550M, while continuing to invest in AI and product. Shares slipped post-earnings as investors focused on macro risk and competition.
Guidance remains constructive:
- Q4 2025: Room nights +4-6%; Gross bookings +11-13%; Revenue +10-12%; Adjusted EBITDA $2.0-2.1B
- FY 2025: Room nights ~+7%; Gross bookings +11-12%; Revenue ~+12%; Adjusted EBITDA +17-18% with ~180 bps margin expansion
Street view: constructive with ~35% upside on average targets
Coverage spans 38 analysts with a "Moderate Buy" consensus. The average 12-month target sits near $6,174 (~35% above recent levels), with a Street-high around $7,447.
Zacks gives a VGM Score of "A" and a Rank #3 (Hold). Wedbush upgraded the stock to Outperform on November 13 with a $6,000 target, citing scale, geographic mix, liquidity, and strong free-cash-flow conversion.
Institutions leaning in
Norges Bank initiated a 381,901-share position in Q2 2025 (~1.18% of shares), a notable vote of confidence. Edmond de Rothschild increased its stake by 14.1%.
Institutional ownership remains very high (92-96% depending on the source). The board maintained the $9.60 quarterly dividend, reinforcing a cash-return mindset alongside growth.
Product and AI updates across the portfolio
- OpenTable + VOICEplug AI: Global integration across 20 countries automates phone-based reservations, waitlists, and cancellations with multilingual voice AI. 24/7 coverage and real-time availability sync aim to reduce friction for restaurants and diners.
- KAYAK Holiday Trends + AI Mode: Holiday searches up 10% YoY; international airfares down 7%, U.S. domestic down 1%; rental cars down 6%; hotel rates roughly flat. KAYAK launched "AI Mode" for conversational trip planning and bundled suggestions, feeding the "connected trip" push.
- OpenTable 2026 Dining Trends + Concierge: Seated dining up 8% in 2025; Americans expect ~10 dining-out occasions per month in 2026. New "Concierge" assistant helps discover and book across 60,000 restaurants; survey shows 44% plan to use AI more to book dining next year.
- Rocket Travel by Agoda + WestJet Hotels: A white-label platform with 500,000+ hotels, integrated into WestJet's loyalty program. Extends distribution through airline and rewards ecosystems.
Leadership: Priceline's next CEO
Brigit Zimmerman becomes Priceline CEO on January 1, 2026. She's an internal promotion (Chief Commercial Officer since 2022), with Brett Keller staying on as Special Advisor through May 1, 2026.
The message: continuity for one of Booking's most visible North American brands.
Near-term catalyst: Nasdaq 53rd Investor Conference
CFO Ewout Steenbergen presents on December 9, 2025 in London. Expect color on Q4 holiday trends, AI spend and adoption, cost-savings progress, marketing efficiency, and competition with Google, Airbnb, and other OTAs.
For webcast details, check Booking Holdings' Investor Relations page: ir.bookingholdings.com.
Overhangs: Google, macro, and costs
Shares fell ~5.5% on November 22 after Google expanded its AI travel tools globally, raising demand-capture concerns. Management also flagged macro and geopolitical uncertainty that could weigh on travel.
On costs, marketing grew 8.8% year over year but ticked down to 4.7% of gross bookings (from 5.0%). Adjusted fixed operating expenses were up ~10% on cloud and personnel, though revenue growth more than offset these pressures in Q3.
What it means for investors
- Fundamentals: Double-digit growth across revenue, bookings, and EPS with margin expansion and higher cost-savings targets.
- Sentiment: Consensus is constructive; notable upgrades point to scale advantages and free-cash-flow strength.
- Ownership: Large, long-term institutions are building positions; dividend intact.
- Strategy: AI features (KAYAK AI Mode, OpenTable Concierge, VOICEplug integration) and B2B deals (WestJet Hotels) support the "connected trip."
- Risks: Search-led competition (Google), macro sensitivity in travel, rising cloud/personnel costs, and regulatory exposure.
Practical checklist to track from here
- Holiday booking trends versus Q4 guidance on room nights, gross bookings, and revenue.
- Marketing efficiency and adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4 and FY results.
- Adoption and conversion impact from KAYAK AI Mode and OpenTable Concierge.
- Pace of new B2B partnerships like WestJet Hotels and their contribution to distribution.
- Traffic acquisition costs and any shift in dependency on Google channels.
- Dividend consistency and overall capital return framework.
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