The Next Chapter for New Orleans: Breaking Ground on a New Economy
AI, major construction, and a new administration are setting a new tone for the New Orleans market. At the 15th Annual Economic & Real Estate Forecast Symposium hosted by NOMAR CID, over 450 industry leaders and 40+ sponsors aligned on one message: opportunity is back on the table, if you act with precision.
The theme, "Breaking Ground: The Emergence of a New Economy," set the stage for data-backed insights and clear signals for developers, lenders, brokers, and builders across the ten-parish region.
Commercial Milestones That Matter
- Shell's new Class A tower: The first since 1989, this headquarters project is a catalyst for the River District, signaling renewed confidence in core office assets.
- Omni Convention Center Hotel: The $590 million project is tracking for a 2026 start, supporting hospitality, convention traffic, and adjacent retail.
- Charity Hospital revitalization: Tulane's plan brings labs, classrooms, retail, and dining to Tulane Ave., with job creation and a stronger innovation corridor.
- Logistics and energy buildout: The Louisiana International Terminal in St. Bernard and Venture Global's LNG facility in Plaquemines point to long-horizon economic lift.
- Data and AI footprint: Meta's planned data center in Richland Parish sits outside the NOMAR region, but the signaling effect for capital inflows into Louisiana is significant.
AI, Energy Demand, and Louisiana's Edge
"There are two trends in the world right now that Louisiana is incredibly well-positioned for. One is that the demand for energy to fuel AI is going to keep going up because a single ChatGPT search takes approximately 17x the amount of energy a Google search takes. At the same time, the need for energy that has a lower carbon footprint will continue unabated," said Michael Hecht, President & CEO of GNO, Inc. "In Louisiana, we have access to low-cost natural gas, and we utilize carbon capture sequestration (CCS), which reduces carbon emissions in the atmosphere. We have the infrastructure, natural land formations like salt domes, and the expertise to do so."
For developers and industrial players, tie your pipeline to power availability, CCS, and grid adjacency. Those that pair sites with energy certainty will move first.
Policy Shift: What the New Administration Could Change
Helena Moreno's win puts focus on New Orleans East and a reset on the city's permitting system. Both are critical to unlocking outside capital and reducing friction for builders.
"I have never been more encouraged than I am today," said Mike Sherman, Founder & Executive Counsel of Sherman Strategies. "Wherever you stand with the election, I think there's a reason to be optimistic. There is a renewed energy."
Residential: From Affordability Pressure to Excess Inventory
"I think the main take away from this particular year is that what's become a housing affordability issue is now turning into an excess inventory issue. If we went back to a typical September from 2013-2019, we would have about 4600 residential homes for sale in the NOMAR region. Right now, we are at about 7600," said Gary Wagner, Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Eminent Scholar Endowed Chair in Economics at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.
"Housing affordability has really shifted with the interest rate environment changing a couple of years ago and remaining high-with the 30-year mortgage rate remaining somewhere around 6.8%," continued Wagner. "We are seeing inventory levels much higher than what we typically see, and it has flipped the market from more of a sellers' market to a buyers' market."
The Federal Reserve lowered rates in September and signaled possible additional moves in 2025. Track policy updates directly from the Federal Reserve. Expect modest price growth and gradual buyer adjustment to the new rate baseline.
Wagner added that flood insurance changes have been less disruptive than feared. "So far, it doesn't look like the revisions to flood insurance are having a significant effect on home buyers... It's certainly not a positive thing for the region, but it's not as bad as what I thought could happen." For clarity on coverage, review FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program.
Retail: A Reset That Creates Openings
Consolidated corridors like Veterans in Metairie and mixed-use centers across the region are holding up. Vacancies from national closures are creating workable big-box options.
"It's not a retreat, it's a reset," said Kirsten Early, Partner/Director of Retail at SRSA Real Estate. Growth categories to watch: QSR, fitness, discount/value, grocery, and major brands that anchor steady weekly traffic.
AI in Lending and Deal Flow
Lenders on the "What do the lenders say?" panel noted AI's growing use in underwriting and asset verification. Expect faster turnarounds, tighter risk screens, and broader application across the transaction chain-from virtual tours to instant pre-approvals.
"Every technological advance has increased the standard of living-steam engines, steel, computers. AI is going to improve prosperity around the world," said Guy Williams, President & CEO of Gulf Coast Bank & Trust Company. "This is a train you have to get on board with, or you will be left behind."
If your team needs a practical on-ramp, explore role-specific AI training here: AI courses by job.
What To Do Next
- Developers/Owners: Map projects to power access, CCS compatibility, and logistics corridors. Pre-negotiate permit workflows anticipating administrative changes.
- Lenders/Brokers: Pilot AI-driven underwriting for speed and consistency. Standardize data intake to reduce fall-through and improve borrower experience.
- Retail/Leasing Teams: Target big-box backfills with flexible divisibility. Prioritize QSR, fitness, discount/value, and grocers to stabilize visits.
- Residential Agents/Builders: Price to the buyer's monthly payment, not list price vanity. Use days-on-market data and rate buydowns to move inventory.
- Investors: Track the Omni timeline, Shell tower progress, Charity Hospital use mix, LIT, and LNG schedules for sequencing capital deployment.
The signal is clear: money is moving toward energy-secure sites, experience-driven retail, and projects that can actually get permitted. New Orleans has the assets. Now it's execution time.
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