Cisco's Blended Finance and Open Data Accelerate Climate AI from Farms to Forests

The Data Catalyst: How Blended Finance Is Scaling AI for Climate Impact

AI can change how climate risk is priced, managed, and financed - but only if the data is good, open, and usable. That was the core takeaway as Cisco's Chief Sustainability Office convened 100+ experts across nine climate sub-sectors at the AI + Climate Innovation Lab during San Francisco Climate Week 2025.

Blended finance is the bridge. Public, philanthropic, and private capital can co-fund the data infrastructure AI requires, then back the applications that put it to work. The result: cleaner underwriting, aligned incentives, and investable climate solutions that pencil out.

Why finance teams should care

• Better data cuts uncertainty, improves valuation, and tightens underwriting.
• Incentive-aligned structures let investors participate in long-term cash flow improvements.
• Open data reduces diligence costs and accelerates deal flow across the sector.

Case 1: Regenerative agriculture - aligning capital, data, and yield

U.S. farmers face capital constraints and thin data systems. The USDA reported 21% and 17% declines in farm working capital in 2023 and 2024. That limits investment in regenerative practices, even when the agronomics make sense.

Cisco Foundation backed the Fractal Farmer Agriculture Regenerative Management (FARM) Fund, which offers 10-year minority investments with incentives tied to regenerative practice adoption - not traditional debt or majority equity. Across 14 farms, Fractal reports 6.5% higher crop yields relative to local benchmarks and stronger income rates versus market averages.

For Hough Farms in East Central Nebraska, this structure sustains local decision-making while supporting long-term practice shifts. A decade-long horizon aligns cash flows with actual agronomic and risk outcomes, not a short-term program cycle.

Fractal's edge comes from data. It uses AI and machine learning to value land based on productivity, climate risk, and soil health - a more accurate approach than static measures. To scale, Fractal needs shared, open data rails for underwriting and incentive verification.

"When regenerative practices improve yield resilience, the cash flow impacts ripple from land value to crop insurance. Through Open Ground, we're partnering with Earth Genome to make the climate and agronomic data behind those benefits open source - ensuring it can drive meaningful impact across the entire sector." - Dr. Emma Fuller, Co-Founder, Fractal

To accelerate this, Cisco Foundation also provided an early-stage grant to Earth Genome's Open Ground - an open-source initiative built with Fractal. It integrates historical climate data, localized extreme weather models, and advanced crop failure classifications to deliver field-level insights for researchers, startups, insurers, lenders, and public entities. Learn more at Earth Genome.

Case 2: Wildfire resilience - data that makes risk actionable

Wildfire risk is rising as extreme weather, legacy suppression policies, and fragmented restoration drive volatility. The missing piece has been open, high-quality data that communities, managers, and insurers can actually use - including the inclusion of Indigenous stewardship and protocols.

Cisco Foundation invested in Vibrant Planet PBC, which integrates satellite imagery, remote sensing, AI-driven modeling, and cloud-based data into a real-time picture of forest health, fire risk, and ecosystem change. The nonprofit Vibrant Planet Data Commons (VPDC), supported by Cisco Foundation grants since 2022, releases open-access datasets - including a wildfire ignition probability model - and story-driven tools for public engagement.

The work is already used across the American West, with Tribal partners co-developing knowledge-sharing protocols to ensure relevance and responsible access. See the broader mission at Vibrant Planet.

"Together, Vibrant Planet PBC and VPDC form a hybrid engine for change - where science meets scalable systems, and where public good and market-driven innovation reinforce one another. Our success is not parallel, but interdependent - unlocking a model for how mission-aligned for-profits and nonprofits can co-create transformative climate resilience." - Dr. Chelsey Walden-Schreiner, Director of Science Development, Vibrant Planet Data Commons

What this means for capital allocators

• Structure: Use blended tranches to fund open data and early modeling; reserve follow-on capital for proven AI applications.
• Underwriting: Require open-data deliverables and transparent methodologies; treat shared datasets as public goods that reduce portfolio risk.
• Incentives: Tie returns to measurable outcomes (yield resilience, loss avoidance, verified practice adoption) over 7-10 years.
• Risk pricing: Incorporate climate risk, soil health, and ignition probability into valuations, insurance structures, and collateral terms.
• Partnerships: Co-fund data commons with philanthropies; syndicate with public programs to lower cost of capital and speed adoption.

The bottom line

Open, high-quality datasets turn climate AI from a promising theory into investable assets with observable cash flows. In agriculture, yield resilience and better valuations cascade into land value and insurance. In wildfire, accurate ignition and fuels data inform restoration, infrastructure planning, and coverage.

Blended finance is the catalyst. It builds the data foundation the market needs, then scales the applications that create durable returns and measurable resilience. With the right structures, the capital stack funds what the model can prove - and what communities can use.