Cat losses are higher, AI sets the tone: What commercial insurance should expect in 2026
Expect a tougher baseline and faster workflows. Ivan Gonzalez, CEO of Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, says 2026 will be defined by higher catastrophe losses, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and accelerated use of AI across the value chain.
These aren't passing blips. They're structural shifts that change how we price, deploy capacity, and work with clients and brokers.
Catastrophe losses: US$150B as the new baseline
Industry insured losses in recent years are clustering closer to US$150 billion, not the US$100 billion that used to mark a "bad" year. You don't need a major Category 4 or 5 landfall to push totals higher anymore.
Gonzalez expects that elevated baseline to continue, with man-made losses adding to the pressure. For context on the loss trend, see Swiss Re Institute's sigma research and NOAA's U.S. billion-dollar disasters data.
Trade and geopolitics: more scenario planning, less surprise
Policy swings over the last cycle left scars. Even with more clarity on tariffs and trade, the "what's next?" mindset remains. Multinationals are stress-testing supply chains, cash flow, and critical operations against multiple outcomes.
Insurers are being pulled in earlier. The ask: combine analytics, insurance, and forward-looking planning rather than responding after a shock.
AI moves from pilots to production
Gonzalez expects the biggest productivity gains in 2026 to come from generative AI embedded across end-to-end workflows. Think faster submission handling, fewer system touchpoints, and more consistent decisions.
Swiss Re Corporate Solutions is leaning on the group's data and tech stack to speed adoption, with early wins in operations and claims. The next jump comes from underwriting and policy admin once gen AI is fully embedded.
If you're upskilling teams for AI-enabled underwriting and claims operations, explore curated programs focused on applied workflows:
Growth outlook: steady where assets and infrastructure expand
Swiss Re forecasts slower overall premium growth in 2026 in line with modest global expansion. Within that, a few areas stand out.
- Property: Rising asset values, larger footprints, and exposure accumulation keep demand firm across cycles.
- Energy transition: Ongoing investment in renewables, data centers, and grid/power infrastructure requires dedicated capacity and expertise.
- Credit and surety: Continued demand amid macro uncertainty and supply chain reconfiguration.
- Cyber: Softer pricing environment, but penetration is increasing as awareness and requirements expand.
Alternative risk transfer keeps gaining ground
Large corporates are leaning further into captives, parametric covers, and insurance-linked securities like cat bonds. The draw is flexibility, transparent triggers, and diversification of risk financing.
Expect more blended structures that pair traditional capacity with parametrics, and greater use of captives for volatility smoothing and retentions.
Strategy and broker partnerships: lead where expertise matters
Under Swiss Re's "built to lead" posture, Corporate Solutions will keep prioritizing lead positions in multinational programs and specialty areas where scale, data, and technical depth matter most.
Stability is a core message from Gonzalez. No broad exits or sweeping capacity pullbacks; the goal is to manage the cycle and be present over decades, not quarters.
What insurers, brokers, and risk managers can do now
- Re-base nat cat assumptions in pricing, PMLs, and capital models closer to US$150B industry loss scenarios.
- Update property valuations and BI limits to reflect asset inflation, supply chain exposure, and longer rebuild times.
- Stand up AI use cases with clear guardrails: submission triage, coverage comparison, FNOL summarization, and document QA.
- Tighten data governance and model risk management for AI outputs used in underwriting and claims.
- Expand alternative risk transfer: parametric layers for peak perils; captives for higher retentions and volatility control.
- Build geopolitical scenario templates with pre-agreed coverage positions and contract language to reduce cycle time under stress.
- Lean into energy transition exposures-renewables, battery storage, grid upgrades-with specialist underwriting playbooks.
- In cyber, use the soft market to improve posture requirements and coverage clarity while growing penetration.
- Broker-insurer teams: align on submission quality standards and SLAs to fully realize AI-enabled throughput gains.
Bottom line: price for a higher loss floor, invest in AI where it removes friction, and expand risk financing options. That's how you protect margin and remain dependable to clients in 2026 and beyond.
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