AI moves to the core of ENRC supply chain strategy
Executives in energy, natural resources, and chemicals are betting on AI to build resilience and keep growth on track in a volatile market. KPMG's 2025 Global ENRC CEO Outlook reports industry confidence rising from 72% to 84% year over year, even as geopolitics, inflation, and regulation keep pressure high. The near-term agenda centers on supply chain resilience, AI integration, and climate risk.
Confidence is up, but growth feels tighter
CEOs see steady demand for fossil fuels and renewables, plus gains in storage and smart grids, as reasons for optimism. Yet confidence in their own companies slipped from 82% in 2024 to 78% in 2025. As Anish De of KPMG notes, leaders are balancing growth with cost discipline while meeting rising energy demand and managing the shift to cleaner sources.
AI is now a budget line, not a pilot
AI has moved from trials to strategy. The report indicates 65% of CEOs put generative AI among their top investment areas, and 72% plan to allocate 10-20% of next year's budgets to AI initiatives-aimed at more resilient and efficient operations. Two-thirds (66%) expect payback in one to three years.
Shreyansh Upadhyay of KPMG highlights the impact across the value chain: smarter drilling and reservoir decisions, higher margins in refining and renewables, leaner supply chains, and faster finance cycles. In short, this is about better decisions at speed, not just automation.
- Predict disruptions before they hit: multi-tier supplier sensing, route risk scoring, and weather/geo alerts.
- Balance inventories with demand variability: probabilistic forecasting and dynamic reorder policies.
- Cut working capital: AI-driven scheduling, blending, and shipment consolidation.
- Improve yield and uptime: predictive maintenance across production and logistics assets.
- Lower emissions: carbon data collection, route optimization, and load shifting tied to grid intensity.
Policy and geopolitics are forcing harder choices
Different rules across markets and persistent tensions influence capital allocation and operations. As KPMG's Jonathon Peacock points out, ENRC players operate across regulatory environments with very different appetites for the energy transition-slowing tech adoption and complicating supply choices. CEOs cite three blockers to AI at scale: ethical concerns (55%), fragmented data (49%), and regulatory friction (47%).
Govern AI before it governs you
KPMG's Gillian Morris urges companies to implement a clear governance framework for AI agents and data use, with ethics and international law in scope. Translate that into practice with a cross-functional model risk process, data stewardship, security baselines, and audit trails.
- Define approved use cases, owners, and KPIs.
- Stand up data contracts and a single data catalog.
- Set human-in-the-loop thresholds for safety-critical decisions.
- Run red-teaming and bias tests before deployment and on a schedule.
- Build vendor controls into procurement and contracts.
ESG and supply chains: from reporting to redesign
ESG has moved into the core plan for most companies-72% of CEOs say it is embedded in primary strategy. The shift to renewables is central, but it introduces grid and permitting bottlenecks. Mike Hayes at KPMG points to the need for closer public-private coordination to upgrade transmission and accelerate approvals, especially in Europe.
Most CEOs (82%) believe AI can help cut emissions and optimize energy use across supply chains. That means cleaner procurement decisions based on supplier emissions, smarter dispatch against real-time grid carbon intensity, and better asset scheduling. For context on grid needs, see the International Energy Agency's work on electricity systems here. For the broader industry picture, explore KPMG's ENRC insights here.
What executive teams should do this quarter
- Set your AI investment thesis: define where AI will defend margin or create growth in the supply chain, with a 12-18 month ROI bar.
- Fix the data sprawl: consolidate critical supply, operations, and emissions data into a single model with shared IDs.
- Prioritize three production-grade pilots: one in planning, one in logistics, one in Scope 3 transparency-each with a P&L owner.
- Upgrade governance: establish an AI Steering Group, decision gates, and model monitoring linked to risk and compliance.
- Rewire supplier strategy: multi-source critical inputs, build regional buffers, and contract for shared data access.
- Upskill your leaders and planners on AI fluency. If you need a quick path, review practical AI upskilling options.
The signal is clear: AI is moving budget, not buzz. ENRC companies that pair disciplined governance with targeted use cases will build supply chains that handle volatility and hit emissions goals-without losing sight of cash and growth.
Your membership also unlocks:
