How eXp's Push Into Tech and AI Reframes Its Investment Story
eXp World Holdings is moving past its brokerage roots. The company is leaning into technology and AI to make agents more effective and better supported at scale.
Management reported a strong year-over-year jump in international revenue and set a goal to operate in 50 countries with 50,000 agents by 2030. They also plan to keep rewarding shareholders, citing more than US$800 million returned via buybacks and dividends.
The core driver hasn't changed
Owning the stock still comes down to one belief: eXp can evolve from a commission-driven brokerage into a scalable platform that uses AI and software to improve agent productivity and economics. In the near term, the main catalyst is agent network expansion.
The key risk remains pressure on commissions from regulatory changes. That factor can compress margins even if agent count grows.
Why buybacks matter right now
Ongoing repurchases help create a floor under the share price while the company invests in new tech. They can also offset dilution from agent incentive programs, a long-running tension between growth and profitability.
Targets and what they imply
The current narrative points to US$5.1 billion in revenue and US$10.4 million in earnings by 2028. That implies roughly 3.6% annual revenue growth and a US$38.4 million swing from a US$28.0 million loss today.
On those assumptions, a fair value of US$13.00 suggests about 17% upside from the referenced price. As always, these figures depend on execution and may shift with new data.
What could move the needle
- Agent growth and productivity: Net agent adds, churn, transactions per agent, and engagement with new AI tools.
- Take rate and unit economics: Net revenue per transaction, gross margin, and contribution margin by region.
- International mix: Share of revenue outside the U.S., time-to-breakeven for new markets, and localized product fit.
- Regulatory outcomes: Commission rule changes and settlement impacts on rates, splits, and consumer behavior.
- AI adoption and cost-to-serve: Agent support automation, lead quality improvements, and lower operating costs per agent.
- Capital returns and balance sheet: Pace of buybacks and dividends versus reinvestment needs.
Operator's checklist for execution
- Prioritize AI that removes admin work and shortens sales cycles; measure time saved per agent and conversion lift.
- Tie agent incentives to profitable growth, not just headcount; monitor dilution against free cash flow.
- Industrialize international expansion: repeatable playbooks, local compliance expertise, and lean launch teams.
- Build safeguards around data privacy and model bias; audit outcomes regularly.
- Model a scenario with lower commission rates; stress test profitability and cash needs under that case.
- Keep change management simple: clear training, fast feedback loops, and visible wins in key markets.
Wide range of fair values (as of Nov 2025)
Community estimates span US$7.43 to US$72.06 per share. The spread reflects very different views on international growth, agent productivity, and the durability of commissions.
When opinions are this far apart, focus on the few metrics that actually drive value: agent productivity, take rate, cost per agent, and cash generation.
Practical next steps
- Review filings and earnings materials to track agent trends, take rate, and buybacks. SEC filings and the Nasdaq listing are good starting points.
- Build a simple model with three cases for commission rates and agent growth; test what breaks the thesis.
- Track AI feature rollouts and adoption in quarterly updates; watch for measurable cost or conversion gains.
Skill up your team
If you're leading sales or operations, AI literacy across your team will speed adoption and ROI. For curated programs by role, explore Complete AI Training's courses by job.
Disclaimer: This is general commentary based on historical data and publicly available forecasts. It is not financial advice and does not consider your objectives or financial situation. It may not include the latest company announcements. No position in the securities mentioned.
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