Palantir stock edges lower as Fed minutes and year-end trading test the AI rally
Palantir (PLTR) slipped about 0.4% to $180.18 in midday trading on the final session of 2025, moving with a mild pullback in U.S. equities. The stock traded between $179.34 and $181.80 with volume around 8.8 million shares.
After a roughly 140% run this year, the move is less about the day's tick and more about what 2026 brings. Fresh Federal Reserve minutes signaled a cautious path for rate cuts next year, putting duration-sensitive software names back under the microscope.
- PLTR midday: -0.4% to $180.18
- Day range: $179.34-$181.80
- Volume: ~8.8M
- 2025 performance: ~+140%
Market context
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was down about 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 tracker (QQQ) fell roughly 0.3%. AI-linked peers were mixed: Nvidia up about 0.9%, Snowflake down about 0.8%, and C3.ai off roughly 2.5%.
Wedbush kept Palantir in focus into 2026, naming it a top AI pick and setting a $230 target, citing "unprecedented" demand for its platform. That optimism now meets a more cautious macro tape.
Why rates matter for PLTR
The Fed minutes showed divisions around the last quarter-point cut and projections for only one additional cut in 2026. Fewer cuts mean a higher discount rate sticks around longer.
For high-growth software, more of the valuation sits in out-year cash flows. Higher rates compress what investors are willing to pay for those years, even if the story is intact.
Business snapshot and guidance
Palantir sells data integration and analytics software to government and commercial customers and has been rolling out its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) to support deployments inside customer operations.
In its November update, the company guided Q4 revenue to $1.327 billion-$1.331 billion and raised its full-year outlook, pointing to strong demand for analytics and AI-driven use cases.
Upcoming catalysts
- Earnings timing: no official date yet; Wall Street Horizon lists Feb 2, 2026 (after close) as unconfirmed.
- Policy risk: the Fed's next meeting is slated for Jan 27-28; markets will gauge whether easing continues without rekindling inflation.
- Deal flow: any sizable government awards or major enterprise AIP deployments could move shares quickly.
What to watch in early January
Liquidity comes back, allocations reset, and conviction returns (or doesn't). Watch commercial deal momentum, federal contract updates, and any signs of margin expansion that can justify 2025's multiple.
On the sentiment side, compare price action against that $230 target and monitor how PLTR trades on down market days versus peers. Relative strength matters after a big year.
Quick take for investors
- Respect the macro: one more cut in 2026 is a different setup than multiple cuts; duration risk stays in play.
- Trust but verify: look for confirmation in bookings, pipeline commentary, and AIP adoption in the next print.
- Have a plan: define your time horizon and levels before earnings and the January Fed meeting.
Into year-end, PLTR is hovering near $180. The next leg likely comes from earnings guidance and the macro path the Fed sets from here.
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