Kellanova's AI Predicts Creative Impact with 83% Accuracy, Delivering 2x Performance and 11% ROI Lift

How Kellanova uses AI to predict creative performance and drive KPIs

Kellanova built a predictive impact scoring system that turns past campaign data into clear, creative criteria tied to outcomes. The result: forecasting three-second view-through rate (VTR) with 83% accuracy, more than 2x performance gains, and an 11% lift in ROI.

The work, done with Vidmob and MMA Global, moves creative decisions from guesswork to measurable signals. For creatives, that means faster briefs, cleaner edits, and fewer rounds.

What changed

Across 443 assets and several billion impressions on Meta in the U.S. (Mar 2024-Mar 2025), Kellanova used Vidmob's Aperture to model what actually moves KPIs. From 20,000 possible choices in an ad, the team narrowed the field to 19 company-wide variables and 11 category-specific ones that correlate with outcomes.

"Creative has always been a little bit subjective, a little bit art and science. But now, with the ability to process large sets of data at scale and build more advanced analytics and modeling, we can get to more precision and more predictiveness of business outcomes," said Nicole Vinson, vice president of digital, media and omni-shopper experience at Kellanova.

How predictive impact scoring works

Start with fit-for-platform best practices, then layer predictive scoring that weights the elements most tied to your KPI. Kellanova connected scores to metrics like VTR, then validated the lift at scale across brands such as Pringles, Cheez-It, and Pop-Tarts.

• Signal fast: show positive emotion in the opening seconds.
• Make it audible and readable: use audio and clear text overlays.
• Brand early: bring logos, characters, or distinctive assets into frame quickly.
• Show consumption cues: product-in-use beats abstract montage.
• Match CTA and framing to funnel stage.

This isn't a template. It's a shortlist of levers with the highest probability of moving the metric you care about. The team then operationalized those levers across briefs, edits, and pre-flight checks.

Platform and funnel nuance

After Meta, Kellanova re-scored creative across other digital platforms using the same framework, adjusting criteria for what works on Facebook vs. TikTok. They also tuned recommendations by funnel stage: upper funnel prioritizes distinctiveness and speed to branding, while mid and lower funnel increase product clarity and direct calls to action.

The company is exploring audience-level insights next, using the same recursive loop: score, deploy, measure, refine.

Inside the org: making it stick

A cross-functional group spanning insights, analytics, media ops, and full-funnel brand leads set goals, definitions, and methodology upfront. That alignment helped shift teams from gut feel to data-backed decisions without losing creative intent.

Variables were prioritized into "must haves," "nice to haves," and "watch items." Agencies are briefed on the criteria, pre-flight creative is scored to a threshold, and quarterly scorecards drive feedback on what's working, what's not, and what to test next as algorithms and behavior change.

Why this matters for creatives

• Clarity beats opinion: know exactly what to front-load in the first three seconds.
• Protect distinctiveness: logos, characters, and brand codes are non-negotiable assets, not decorations.
• Edit to KPI: each cut should earn its place by lifting the metric you're targeting.
• Treat testing as process: score, ship, learn, and roll insights into the next brief.
• Use constraints as prompts: fewer, sharper variables improve concepting and speed.
• Hold the line: pre-flight scoring and thresholding reduce wasted spend and revision churn.

A simple workflow you can steal

• Define the KPI for each asset (VTR, CTR, add-to-cart, etc.).
• Audit past winners and laggards; list recurring elements that correlate with lift.
• Reduce to a 10-20 variable rubric linked to the KPI and platform.
• Pre-flight score every concept and cut; fix gaps before media runs.
• Create platform and funnel variants; don't force one edit everywhere.
• Run quarterly scorecards; update the rubric as performance shifts.

Tools and next steps

To explore similar approaches and tech, see Vidmob and MMA Global. If your team wants structured training on applying AI to creative and marketing ops, browse practical programs at Complete AI Training.

The bottom line

Predictive impact scoring turns creative choices into measurable levers that lift KPIs. Tighten the variables, pre-flight your edits, and let the data sharpen your craft without flattening it.