Kellanova's AI Scoring Predicts Creative Success: 83% VTR Accuracy, 2x Performance, 11% ROI Lift

How Kellanova uses AI to predict creative performance and drive KPIs

Kellanova is using AI-driven predictive impact scoring to link creative decisions to business outcomes with speed and clarity. In a study of 443 assets across Meta platforms, the team forecasted three-second VTR with 83% accuracy, improved performance by 2x+, and generated an 11% lift in ROI.

The work, done with Vidmob and MMA Global from March 2024 to March 2025, turned creative "gut feel" into measurable criteria that guide briefs, production, and media. For creatives, this means fewer guesswork loops and more confidence that a concept will move key metrics.

What predictive impact scoring means for creatives

Predictive impact scoring uses past performance to identify which creative elements drive specific KPIs. Kellanova condensed over 20,000 possible creative decisions into 19 company-wide and 11 category-specific variables that matter most.

Examples include: show positive emotion in the opening seconds, use audio or text overlays when sound-off is common, display the brand early with clear cues (logos, characters, packaging), and include consumption or usage moments that create meaning fast.

Inside Kellanova's process

• Baseline fit-for-platform: Adopted platform best practices and scoring before modeling KPIs.
• Data scope: Analyzed billions of impressions across 10 North America brands on Meta.
• Modeling: Mapped creative elements to outcomes like VTR, then narrowed to high-signal variables.
• Activation: Built a ranked list (must-haves, nice-to-haves, watch items) to guide future creative.
• Scale: Applied the framework across other digital platforms and rescored for platform nuance.

Platform and funnel nuance matters

Kellanova rescored creative for each platform to reflect differences in format, behavior, and feed dynamics. What wins on Facebook may be different from TikTok, so the criteria flex by placement.

The team also adjusts by funnel stage. Upper-funnel assets favor intrigue and memory cues, while middle and lower funnel push product clarity, benefit framing, and explicit calls to action.

A practical creative checklist (adapt to your brand)

• Hook fast: Lead with motion, contrast, or a clear visual story in the first seconds.
• Signal emotion early: Positive facial expressions or sensory cues that connect on mute.
• Brand presence: Early logo or distinctive assets (characters, packaging, colors) without clutter.
• Sound-off strategy: Text overlays or captions; simplify copy to one message per scene.
• Consumption/use cues: Show product in context and outcome (before/after, bite, pour, swipe).
• One KPI per asset: Build for VTR, CTR, or conversion-don't split focus.
• Funnel fit: Match CTA intensity, product time-on-screen, and benefit depth to stage.
• Platform fit: Edit pacing, framing, and aspect ratio for each placement; re-score each version.

How Kellanova operationalized it

• Cross-functional squad: Insights, analytics, media ops, and full-funnel leads aligned on goals and methods.
• Clear criteria: 19 variables prioritized into must-haves and supporting elements for briefs.
• Agency alignment: Pre-flight scoring against criteria with thresholds for greenlighting.
• Quarterly scorecards: Review what's working, what needs iteration, and update criteria as platforms shift.

Leaders emphasized that this isn't a paint-by-numbers template. It's a signal map that lets creatives make sharper choices while keeping the work distinct to each brand.

What's next for Kellanova

They're extending the same framework across all digital channels, refining by platform and audience segments, and deepening stage-based frameworks. The aim is a living system that keeps pace with algorithms, consumer behavior, and changing business goals.

Apply this playbook to your next campaign

• Pick one KPI to own (e.g., three-second VTR) and gather recent asset performance tied to it.
• List your top 15-25 creative elements per asset (opening emotion, logo timing, overlays, product time-on-screen).
• Run a simple analysis: compare high vs. low performers and mark recurring elements that correlate with the KPI.
• Reduce to a 12-20 variable checklist; label must-haves vs. nice-to-haves.
• Bake it into the workflow: brief with the checklist, pre-flight score, post-flight learn, and refine each quarter.

Resources

• Vidmob - creative analytics and predictive scoring tools
• AI courses by job - build practical skills for creative roles

Key outcomes to benchmark

• 83% accuracy forecasting three-second VTR
• 2x+ improvement in creative performance
• 11% ROI lift tied to scoring-informed creative

If your team aligns on a small set of proven variables, scores assets before launch, and reviews results on a schedule, you'll ship work faster with higher odds of hitting your KPI. That's the win.