Manulife's next decade: AI, middle-income growth, and a bigger bet on India
Six months into the role, Manulife CEO Phil Witherington has set a clear agenda: invest harder at home and in AI, push deeper into the U.S. middle market, and scale exposure to India. The aim is simple-stay agile, win share, and build a business that performs through the next cycle, not just the next quarter.
"We're looking past 2027 to deliver for all stakeholders over the long term," he said as the company reported third-quarter results.
Why the reset-and why now
Momentum is solid. Core earnings rose to $2.0B ($1.16 per share) in Q3, up from $1.8B ($1.00) a year earlier, while net income held at $1.8B. Witherington's refresh is about extending that trajectory and answering the next decade's growth question before it's asked.
CFO Colin Simpson put it bluntly: "We've gone from fighting to be heard to answering why choose us for the next 10 years."
- 2027 targets: Return on equity at 18%.
- Mix shift: Asia to account for 50% of revenue.
Where the money goes: AI and domestic strength
Manulife will continue spending roughly $200M per year on technology and AI, with a target of $1B in value created between 2025 and 2027. In Canada, expect faster, cleaner digital experiences in group benefits and underwriting.
- Advisor enablement: AI tools flag coverage and savings gaps so advisers can respond in minutes, not days.
- Instant decisions: AI underwriting that approves select life applications on the spot.
If you're building AI capability inside a financial enterprise, curated resources like these can help pressure-test your roadmap: AI tools for finance.
Market focus: three "mega economies," one small brand to grow
Witherington points to the U.S., China, and India as the three mega economies shaping demand. Manulife is established in the U.S. through John Hancock and operates in China via Manulife-Sinochem. India, by comparison, is underweight-but not for long.
The company deepened its partnership with Mahindra's asset management arm in 2020 and has now added a second joint venture to enter insurance services. "We have an aspiration to have a bigger impact and greater exposure to the India markets," Witherington said.
U.S. growth: move beyond high-net-worth
John Hancock will expand its reach to mass affluent and middle-income clients. The Vitality program-which rewards healthy behavior-remains a differentiator and is being shared across regions where it fits the regulatory and partner model.
One example: the GRAIL early cancer detection test, first offered to U.S. clients, was recently approved for Manulife life insurance clients in Canada. For context on the test, see GRAIL's Galleri.
Longevity economics: closing the gap
People are living longer. That expands retirement and protection gaps, especially in life and health. Manulife plans to invest $350M by 2030 to launch the Longevity Institute-backing research and partnerships that help customers manage longer lifespans financially and medically.
Leadership context and culture signal
Witherington knows the Asian market well-he spent years there with Manulife, AIA, and HSBC. He returned to Toronto, became a Canadian citizen, and started his first 100 days as CEO with visits to teams in Waterloo, Halifax, and Montreal.
His ambition is straightforward: be the number one choice for customers. The message inside Manulife is just as clear-Canada and the U.S. matter, and the company will invest to grow here.
What executives should watch (and copy)
- Dual horizon planning: Hit 3-year targets while stacking moves that compound over 10.
- AI with a P&L: Tie spend to specific use cases and a measurable value target.
- Segment expansion: Move beyond HNW-retool products, pricing, and distribution for middle-income clients.
- Partnership entry: Use joint ventures to accelerate in complex markets like India.
- Health as a growth loop: Programs like Vitality reduce claims, deepen engagement, and improve retention.
- Domestic advantage: Win at home with cleaner digital experiences in group benefits and life underwriting.
Quick numbers
- Q3 core earnings: $2.0B ($1.16/share) vs. $1.8B ($1.00) a year ago.
- Q3 net income: $1.8B, flat year over year.
- Tech and AI spend: ~$200M annually; expected $1B value from 2025-2027.
- Longevity Institute commitment: $350M by 2030.
- 2027 goals: 18% ROE; Asia at 50% of revenue.
The throughline: focus where growth is durable, build AI into the operating spine, and meet the middle market with speed and simplicity. That's a defensible playbook for the next decade.
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