Meta (META) Stock Today: Quiet Holiday Tape, Bigger 2026 AI Spend Questions, and Fresh Street Targets
Friday, December 26, 2025 (12:36 p.m. ET) - Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is trading near $662.87, down about 0.7% in a thin, post-Christmas session. The tape is slow, liquidity is light, and mega-cap flows are doing most of the work.
Price check
- Price: ~$662.87
- Day change: -$4.68 (-0.70%)
- Intraday range: ~$662.87-$668.70
- Market cap: ~$1.845T
- Trailing P/E: ~31.5
In sessions like this, price can look louder than the news. Fewer desks are staffed, so flows in names like META can move the tape without a fresh catalyst.
The setup: "Santa" tone, light volume
Indexes sit near records in thin post-holiday trading. That backdrop keeps META tethered to the broader tape while the real debate sits in 2026: how fast AI spend turns into margin and new revenue.
For reference, see the latest on market tone from Reuters and Meta's investor updates:
Why META is in focus
- Bull view: Meta remains a dominant ads platform; AI is improving targeting, measurement, and creative tools-supporting growth and cash generation.
- Bear view: The next leg requires heavy AI infrastructure build; risk is margin pressure, potential overbuild, and slower-than-hoped returns.
What the last quarter told us
- Revenue: $51.24B (+26% Y/Y)
- Family Daily Active People: 3.54B (+8% Y/Y)
- Ad impressions: +14% Y/Y; average price per ad: +10% Y/Y
- GAAP EPS was pulled down by a one-time, non-cash tax charge of $15.93B (reported $1.05 vs. $7.25 excluding the charge)
Strong top-line and engagement metrics keep the core story healthy. The noise sits in the spend curve.
2026 spend path: the line everyone underlines
- Q4 2025 revenue guide: $56-$59B
- FY25 expenses: $116-$118B
- FY25 capex: $70-$72B (incl. finance lease principal)
- Capex growth to be "notably larger" in 2026; expenses also expected to rise faster, led by infrastructure and depreciation
Translation: ROI proof points need to show up in ads efficiency, pricing, engagement, and new surfaces-quickly.
Headlines shaping sentiment
- Instagram and teen focus: A report on efforts to reclaim teen engagement arrives as legal and safety scrutiny persists. Implications: engagement durability and regulatory risk.
- Antitrust overhang eased: A recent court outcome reduced the threat of forced asset splits, removing a tail risk for equity holders.
- Ad quality questions: A Reuters investigation highlighted internal debates on cracking down on certain fraudulent activity. This is a slow-burn risk for policy, enforcement costs, and brand trust.
Street view: constructive, but split on margins
- Consensus: Strong Buy; average 12-month target ~$819 (range: ~$645 to ~$1,117)
- Baird: $815 target; Outperform; says sentiment is cautious but sees opportunity into 2026
- Morgan Stanley: $750 target; Overweight; trims EPS assumptions on higher opex
- Wedbush: $880 target; Outperform; calls META a top ad pick for 2026 despite margin concerns
- Rosenblatt: $1,117 target; argues heavier AI spend is justified by returns
What to watch next (early 2026)
- Next earnings: Likely late Jan/early Feb (commonly cited early Feb); look for a tighter 2026 capex/opex frame, AI ROI signals, WhatsApp monetization, and Reality Labs outlook.
- AI "prove-it" year: Markets want tangible productivity and margin gains from AI investments-Meta included.
- WhatsApp: Moving from "option" to "model" as ads and business messaging mature.
- Wearables: Smart glasses are a long-term option. Not a near-term P&L driver, but a growing AI surface worth tracking.
Risks that can move META fast
- Cost creep: Any step-up in 2026 spend without visible monetization milestones.
- Regulatory pressure: Ongoing EU/U.S. matters could impact operations and product design.
- Trust and safety: Teen safety scrutiny and ad integrity drive policy costs and may affect brand budgets.
- Reality Labs losses: Q3 2025 operating loss of ~$4.43B shows continued investment drag.
Capital returns: a useful stabilizer
- Dividend: $0.525 per share declared for Dec. 23, 2025 (record date Dec. 15)
- Q3 2025: $3.16B in buybacks; $1.33B in dividends and equivalents
Cash returns help offset spend anxiety and signal confidence in the core engine.
Into the close: practical watchlist
- Expect exaggerated swings on headlines due to light volume.
- Track regulatory tone and ad integrity stories-they can shift sentiment quickly.
- Watch for analyst follow-through as models reset for 2026 margins and capex.
- Circle the next earnings date-this is the real catalyst for a 2026 re-rate.
Bottom line
META is slightly lower in a quiet session. The real question isn't today's tick-it's whether 2026 AI spend shows up in ads performance, messaging monetization, and new AI surfaces fast enough to keep margins sturdy. That's what will decide the next leg.
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