Nvidia on November 30, 2025: Hero numbers, villain narrative
Nvidia closes November looking like the core asset of the AI buildout and the face of its growing skepticism. The business is putting up staggering results. The stock, not so much.
Here's what matters right now - the price, the print, the pressure, and the playbook for investors.
Nvidia stock today: price, scale, and November's skid
- Last close (Nov. 28): about $177 per share; intraday range near $176.44-$181.00
- Market cap: around $4.3-$4.4 trillion - still among the most valuable companies globally
- 2025 YTD: up roughly 30% (down from ~54% at the peak earlier this year)
- November: roughly an 11-13% drawdown after earnings and TPU headlines
- Off October's ~$5 trillion peak, but still dominant in AI infrastructure
Q3 FY26: demand still "off the charts"
- Revenue: $57.0B, up 22% QoQ and 62% YoY
- Data center: $51.2B (≈90% of total), up 25% QoQ and 66% YoY
- Diluted EPS (non-GAAP): $1.30 vs. ~$1.26 expected
- Gross margin: mid-70% now; guidance near ~75% for Q4
- Q4 FY26 revenue guide: about $65B (±2%), ahead of prior Street numbers
Management reiterated visibility into roughly $500B of AI accelerator demand across 2025-2026 for Blackwell and Rubin. Translation: hyperscalers, AI labs, and sovereign AI projects are still spending aggressively.
Nvidia's newsroom has the full release and guidance details.
So why did the stock slide in November?
- AI bubble fears: Investors questioned whether AI capex is sprinting ahead of clear ROI, so Nvidia - the flagship - absorbed the doubt.
- Concentration risk: Roughly 61% of revenue is tied to four mega-customers. Great in a boom, painful if any shift spend.
- Valuation whiplash: A multi-trillion chip maker priced for perfection will react hard to any risk, real or rumored.
Google TPUs, the Meta angle, and Nvidia's moat
Reports indicate Meta is exploring billions in Google TPUs (potentially renting through Google Cloud in 2026 and buying in 2027). Markets read that as a possible mid-single-digit percentage revenue shift away from Nvidia over time.
TPUs are gaining credibility for certain inference and search-style workloads. Nvidia still holds the advantage in general-purpose performance and the CUDA ecosystem, but the "only game in town" story is cracking at the edges - and that's enough to move a stock priced for dominance.
The "We're Not Enron" memo: optics vs. operations
Nvidia privately sent a memo to analysts addressing social media speculation about accounting. It emphasized real demand, transparent reporting, and typical payment cycles (~53 days). No credible evidence of fraud has surfaced.
Still, the flags are worth tracking: large accounts receivable (around $33B), talk of circular financing, and customer concentration. None of this breaks the bull case on its own, but it does tighten the margin for error.
Wall Street's stance: still bullish
- Ratings skew heavily Buy/Strong Buy; only a handful of holds/sells
- Average 12-month target: near $250, implying about 40% upside from ~$177
- Select targets run into the $270s after the pullback
- Forward P/E near mid-20s - not far from other Big Tech, with higher expected growth
Forecasts vs. reality check
Some AI-generated targets pegged NVDA around $214 by month-end. Actual price: closer to $177. Quant models see a gentler glide into the high-$170s/low-$180s near term.
Lesson: models (human or machine) are scenario tools, not guarantees. Sentiment can swamp spreadsheets for weeks at a time.
The ultra-bull scenario: could $20T happen?
One detailed analysis outlines a path to a $20T market cap by 2030. The logic: data center growth compounding ~36% annually, accelerators plus networking/software pushing run-rate revenue toward the high hundreds of billions, and valuation multiples staying supportive thanks to a full-stack moat (fast product cadence, CUDA, system-level integration).
It isn't destiny. But after the last three years, multi-trillion scenarios are no longer fantasy. The debate is about pace and durability, not possibility.
Key risks to keep front and center
- Competition: Google TPUs gaining traction; AMD's MI line improving; custom silicon at hyperscalers; China-focused challengers where export rules allow.
- Customer concentration: A few hyperscalers drive the majority of revenue - any shift in mix or timing hits the model fast.
- Regulatory/geopolitical: Tight U.S. export controls to China already in the guide; further restrictions would bite.
- Accounting/credit cycle: Elevated receivables and potential customer financing mean tighter credit could slow orders.
- AI ROI: If enterprise ROI lags expectations, CFOs may moderate AI capex growth.
What to watch next
- Q4 print vs. ~$65B revenue guide; gross margin trend near ~75%
- Blackwell and Rubin shipment timing, supply visibility, and lead times
- Hyperscaler capex updates; any change in AI spend trajectories
- TPU adoption signals at Meta and others; AMD design wins
- Accounts receivable, days sales outstanding, and any financing disclosures
- China revenue assumptions and any new export controls
Investor playbook: practical moves
- Align position size with volatility. This is the AI bellwether - big moves are part of the ride.
- Track the few variables that actually swing value: data center revenue growth, hyperscaler capex, competitive wins, margins, and supply.
- Use scenarios. Assign probabilities to "AI capex accelerates," "steady," or "pauses," and stress-test revenue/margin assumptions.
- Mind concentration. If your portfolio is NVDA-heavy via indexes and single-name exposure, know your true risk.
Bottom line
As of November 30, 2025, Nvidia's fundamentals are exceptional: record revenue, towering data center growth, and deep order visibility. The stock, at roughly $177, reflects a tug-of-war between AI exuberance and fresh competition/valuation fears.
If you believe AI spending continues and Nvidia keeps out-executing, the long case holds. If capex cools or rivals win bigger slices, the multiple will feel heavy. Either way, this is still the core barometer for the AI trade.
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