Nvidia's November Slump vs. Its AI Stronghold: What November 29's Headlines Mean for NVDA
Nvidia just posted record results and remains the default supplier for AI compute. Yet the stock slid hard in November as big customers test alternatives and skeptics get louder. That tension-spectacular fundamentals vs. mounting doubt-defined today's coverage.
Nvidia Stock Today: Price, Volume, and Context
Shares closed around $177, down about 1.8% on the day on heavy volume near 121 million shares. Even after the pullback, NVDA is still up roughly 34% year to date.
Over three years, the company's value jumped about 1,000%, briefly touching roughly $4.3 trillion before retreating ~16% from a late-October high near $212. NVDA is simultaneously in a drawdown and still one of the biggest winners of the cycle. That's why the debate is intense.
Meta-Google Chip Talks: Real Pressure on Nvidia's Data-Center Engine
Reports indicate Meta may rent Google Cloud TPUs in 2026 and start buying TPUs for its own data centers in 2027. The potential deal size is in the billions. Some at Google believe this could capture up to 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue-enough to move sentiment and strategy.
The headlines helped knock roughly $250 billion off Nvidia's market value earlier this week while Alphabet hit highs. If more mega-caps follow Meta's lead, Nvidia's near-monopoly on AI accelerators will face real tests.
Source: Reuters coverage of Meta-Google TPU talks
Nvidia's Response and the Street's Read
Nvidia says it's "a generation ahead" and remains the only platform that runs essentially every major AI model across cloud, enterprise, and edge. The company continues to lean on the flexibility of GPUs vs. narrower ASICs.
Bank of America remains constructive: even if Nvidia's AI accelerator share slips from ~85% to ~75% as TPUs and rival GPUs gain traction, that still leaves Nvidia with commanding scale. Translation: credible competition is here, but the moat still matters.
Jensen Huang: Why This Isn't a Bubble
CEO Jensen Huang argues Moore's Law has plateaued. Traditional CPUs can't economically handle modern AI workloads. That's pushing real capex into accelerated computing now, not later.
He frames three waves of computing-data processing, recommender systems, and a new phase of agentic AI. The takeaway: this isn't a story about hype alone; it's a global rebuild of the compute stack that's already generating revenue. That's the bull case in plain terms.
Fundamentals: A Blowout Q3 and a Bigger Q4 Guide
Q3 FY26 revenue hit $57.0 billion, up 22% quarter over quarter and 62% year over year. Data-center revenue reached $51.2 billion, up 25% sequentially and 66% year over year. GAAP and non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.30.
Guidance for Q4 is about $65 billion (±2%). Management highlighted large-scale deployments: at least 10 GW of Nvidia systems for OpenAI's next-gen infrastructure, expanded work with Google Cloud, Microsoft, Oracle, and xAI, plus new platforms like Rubin CPX, BlueField-4, and Spectrum-X.
Growth, Scale, and Valuation
Analysts note that data-center revenue alone now exceeds the entire revenue of many chip peers. Management expects around $500 billion in combined Blackwell and Rubin sales from 2025-2026 if demand holds.
Despite massive scale, Nvidia trades near 24× next year's earnings-below several mega-caps growing slower. That keeps many brokers bullish even as the stock corrects.
Wall Street and Flows: Mostly Bullish, But Watch the Signals
Analyst targets
Recent roundups show dozens of Buys/Overweights and a median target near $250, with high marks up to $300. With shares around $177, implied upside looks attractive-if estimates stick.
Institutions vs. insiders
Institutions own about 65% of the float; some funds made NVDA top positions. Meanwhile, insiders have sold heavily over the last six months (hundreds of sales, virtually no open-market buys). Insider selling isn't a thesis by itself, but the size and pace are hard to ignore.
Short Sellers, Enron Comparisons, and Nvidia's Rebuttal
Bears argue AI spend may be near a cyclical peak, competition is building, and financing links to customers could be inflating demand. Some even compare aspects of Nvidia's growth to Enron and Lucent.
Nvidia pushed back with a detailed memo: average customer payments in ~53 days, strategic stakes disclosed, no hidden vendor financing to prop up sales. Independent takes acknowledge AI spend will cool at some point, but call the "Enron of AI" label exaggerated given Nvidia's cash flow, disclosures, and dominance.
Policy and Social Signals
Export controls remain a swing factor. Tight rules on advanced AI chips, especially to China, could trim growth and create headline risk into 2026. Expect policy to keep moving the stock.
On social feeds, Nvidia's results and "sold out" commentary are everywhere. Congressional trading data shows 61 trades in six months-54 of them buys. The stock is widely admired, heavily owned, and politicized, which makes it sensitive to news flow.
Is NVDA Still a Buy After the Pullback?
Today's bull case
- Explosive fundamentals: $57B Q3 revenue, 62% Y/Y growth, higher Q4 guide.
- Structural demand: accelerated computing is filling a real compute bottleneck.
- Ecosystem moat: CUDA, software, and partner depth keep Nvidia in the lead.
- Supportive coverage: broad Buy ratings, median targets near $250, continued institutional interest.
Today's bear (or cautious) case
- Competition is real: TPUs, AMD, Broadcom gaining share; Meta exploring options.
- Concentration and policy risk: hyperscaler dependence and export controls.
- Financing debates: concerns over "circular" deals, despite Nvidia's rebuttal.
- Insider selling and a giant market cap leave less room for disappointment.
How to Use This
- Time horizon: Are you trading the next 6-12 months of headlines or owning the 5-10 year AI build-out?
- Risk tolerance: Can you hold a volatile leader while skeptics invoke past bubbles?
- Competition view: Do you believe Nvidia can maintain ~70-80% share of high-end accelerators as TPUs and rival GPUs mature?
- Policy comfort: Are you okay with export-control overhangs you can't model precisely?
If NVDA fits your thesis, drawdowns like November's have historically offered entry points in strong secular stories. If the risks keep you up at night, waiting for clarity is a valid plan. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Resources
- Official results and guidance (Nvidia IR)
- Reporting on Meta-Google TPU talks (Reuters)
- AI tools for finance: practical ways to apply AI in workflows
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