Ofek Kesef Asset Management 2026 Strategic Outlook: Positioning for Policy Divergence and Tighter Liquidity
Ofek Kesef Asset Management has released its 2026 outlook and is shifting portfolio positioning as central bank paths split and liquidity tightens after the post-2025 expansion. For management teams, the message is clear: correlation risk is back, and traditional 60/40 assumptions look less reliable when stocks and bonds slump together.
Shifting Market Conditions
The firm expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep policy restrictive to contain persistent inflation, while Europe and China lean more accommodative to support slower growth. That split raises cross-asset volatility and compresses the diversification you used to count on. The result: higher fragility in balanced portfolios and a stronger case for diversifiers outside public markets.
Market Indicators Informing the Outlook
- Economic growth trends: Consensus calls for slower U.S. GDP in 2026, consistent with later-cycle dynamics and softer top-line growth.
- AI infrastructure investment: Big tech is set to keep spending on energy supply, data centers, and network capacity to support AI workloads.
- Private credit conditions: Default rates have ticked up in parts of the market, increasing dispersion in credit quality and manager performance.
Strategic Focus Areas
Infrastructure-Linked Real Assets. Ofek Kesef is prioritizing energy and digital infrastructure tied to data processing and storage. The draw: long-dated contracted or usage-based revenues, exposure to secular AI demand, and fundamentals that don't always move with public equities.
Senior Secured Private Credit. With a 2026 refinancing wall approaching for many borrowers, the firm's models favor senior secured structures. Priority claims, stronger covenant packages, and collateral coverage can improve recovery prospects if stress builds.
Investor Considerations
- Project-specific cash flows and asset-backed structures can add durability when public markets swing.
- Floating-rate instruments may respond differently to policy shifts than traditional fixed-rate bonds.
- Strategies are structured to align with applicable regulatory and disclosure frameworks across jurisdictions.
What This Means for Management Teams
- Recheck diversification math: Model scenarios where equities and duration fall together. Adjust risk budgets and tracking-error limits accordingly.
- Build a low-correlation sleeve: Consider measured exposure to senior secured private credit and infrastructure-linked assets with visible cash flows.
- Tighten underwriting guardrails: Focus on loan-to-value, interest coverage, covenants, and sector concentration caps.
- Upgrade manager selection: Prioritize managers with cycle-tested track records, sourcing depth, and proven workout capability.
- Plan liquidity: Balance capital-call pacing, credit facilities, and cash buffers to avoid forced selling.
- Monitor leading signals: Watch default rates, AI capex pipelines, power pricing, and central bank guidance.
What to Watch in 2026
- U.S. policy signals and the rate path (Federal Reserve monetary policy).
- Accommodative moves from Europe and China and their transmission effects (ECB policy updates).
- AI-related data center buildouts, grid constraints, and energy procurement trends.
- Refinancing activity, lending standards, and private credit dispersion.
Executive Commentary
Roland Fairmont, Chairman of Ofek Kesef Asset Management, said: "Market conditions entering 2026 differ meaningfully from those of the immediate post-pandemic period. Our analysis suggests that return drivers are becoming more dependent on underlying assets and capital structure positioning rather than broad market exposure. This outlook reflects how we are evaluating those shifts."
Context and Use
The firm notes this outlook provides context on macro trends and allocation considerations. It is not investment advice or a solicitation.
About Ofek Kesef Asset Management
Ofek Kesef Asset Management focuses on alternative credit, real assets, and macro-thematic strategies. The firm serves institutional investors, family offices, and endowments.
For leaders building practical AI fluency to better evaluate infrastructure plans and capex narratives, explore curated learning by role at Complete AI Training.
Your membership also unlocks:
