PONY slips in thin post-Christmas trade
As of 1:14 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, Pony AI Inc. (Nasdaq: PONY) traded near $14.99, down about $0.70 (~4.4%) from the prior close. The intraday range stretched from roughly $14.22 to $15.71.
It's a quirky date for seasonality watchers. December 26 often falls inside the "Santa Claus rally" window that's historically skewed positive for the S&P 500 when markets are open. Today, U.S. equities looked mixed-to-flat by early afternoon-another reminder that seasonality is a tendency, not a rule.
Where the stock sits right now
PONY's decline stood out versus broad indexes. SPY hovered near flat while QQQ leaned slightly positive around the same time.
Volume was active for a holiday week: more than 4 million shares traded by early afternoon versus an average near 5.9 million. With a 52-week band near $4 to $25, this is a name with range and memory.
Why this name swings
Pony AI builds autonomous mobility systems with a heavy focus on robotaxis. U.S.-listed shares trade as ADS, with the Nasdaq listing beginning in late 2024 under "PONY."
In 2025, the company also listed in Hong Kong, raising roughly $863 million in its debut, though the tape there turned soft amid a crowded calendar. That cross-listing matters for liquidity, fundraising flexibility, and regional sentiment.
What's moving PONY today
No single headline is in control. This looks like the usual cocktail for high-beta autonomy names: thin holiday liquidity, risk calibration tied to AI sentiment, and ongoing questions about safety, utilization, cost curves, and regulatory timing.
Coverage has been active across the Street, and several write-ups cast today's drop as normal volatility for PONY. Context matters more than any single tick.
Late-2025 storylines to watch
- Regulatory traction in China: Shenzhen permit. Reuters reported Pony.ai received a citywide driverless commercial robotaxi permit in Shenzhen, starting in select districts with plans to expand. Permissions don't equal profits, but they open operating area, data collection, and a shot at better unit economics.
- Distribution via partnerships: Uber tie-up. Reuters and Uber's investor materials outlined a partnership to put Pony.ai vehicles on the Uber platform, starting in a key Middle East market and expanding internationally. Plugging into established demand shortens the "who will ride?" question.
- Europe: Stellantis for Level 4 testing. Stellantis and Pony.ai agreed to collaborate on self-driving vehicles in Europe, with testing in Luxembourg using a Stellantis BEV platform configured for Level 4 autonomy. Commercial vehicles are a parallel path to revenue while robotaxi services scale city by city.
- The global race is crowding. Reuters has mapped deployments across the U.S., China, the Middle East, and Europe, with Waymo, Baidu, WeRide, Zoox, and others pushing forward. Inevitable adoption doesn't mean guaranteed market share.
Earnings and operating progress
For Q3 2025, a Yahoo Finance transcript showed revenue of $25.4 million, up 72% year over year, with improving gross margin, and ongoing losses typical of the sector. The company is emphasizing operating milestones tied to commercial viability.
Pony AI highlighted that its Gen-7 robotaxi achieved city-wide unit economics breakeven in Guangzhou, with plans to exceed a 2025 fleet target and pass 3,000 vehicles by end-2026. The debate now is less "can it work?" and more "can it scale with sane unit economics?"
Breakingviews has noted falling hardware costs and better operational monitoring could bend the curve, while reminding investors that scaling, regulation, and public trust still gate progress.
Street setup
Coverage initiation has picked up. Macquarie struck an optimistic tone around 2026 as fleets scale and hardware costs drop.
Barclays started at Hold with a $15 target (per Yahoo Finance coverage), while Jefferies came in at Buy with a target reported around $32.80. Across sources like Investing.com and Nasdaq, the average 12-month target clusters in the low-to-mid $20s with a wide range.
Translation for PMs: upside depends on commercialization pace, and the market is not uniform in how it prices that path.
Risks that actually matter
- Safety and regulation: One incident can slow approvals and cool demand.
- Profit timing: Even bullish cases often push meaningful profitability out several years; reports have suggested a company goal of turning profitable by 2029.
- Competition: Waymo, Baidu, WeRide, Zoox, and others are scaling too.
- Capital intensity: Fleets, sensors, compute, insurance, and operations remain expensive until utilization matures.
- Positioning and short interest: MarketBeat recently cited short interest near 5% of float in mid-December-enough to amplify swings when sentiment turns.
Before the next session: quick checklist
- Expect thin conditions into year-end. Post-Christmas trading has been light with indexes near highs. Moves in single names can look bigger when participation is low.
- Watch filings (Form 6-K, Form 144). As a foreign private issuer, Pony AI updates via 6-K. Multiple Form 144 notices dated December 23, 2025 appeared on EDGAR. Keep an eye on the feed. SEC EDGAR search
- Monitor the peer tape, not just PONY. Regulatory wins, safety incidents, or partnerships across robotaxi names often spill over.
- Mark the next likely catalyst window. Several calendars point to mid-February 2026 for earnings, pending company confirmation.
Trading read in one line
Today's drop looks like typical volatility for a high-beta autonomy name in a thin session, set against a long game that still hinges on permits, partnerships, and the math of unit economics.
For a live quote and basic stats, see Yahoo Finance: PONY.
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