Salesforce (CRM) on Dec. 20, 2025: Agentforce momentum, Qualified deal, and what 2026 could look like
Salesforce stock closed Friday at $259.91, up 0.80%, as investors argue the same question again: is CRM a bargain after a rough 2025, or a value trap while capital favors AI infrastructure over software? The attention right now isn't one headline-it's the mix of AI commercialization, new M&A, and a Street view that 2026 could look better than 2025.
Snapshot: where CRM stands
- Last close (Dec. 19): ~$259.91
- 52-week range: roughly $221.96 to $367.09
- Narrative: software lagged in 2025 as capital rotated to AI chips/infrastructure, pressuring multiples for enterprise apps
The bar is high. Salesforce needs to show AI isn't just features-it has to move bookings, margins, and renewal leverage.
Q3 FY2026 and guidance: the key fundamental update
In Q3 FY2026 (ended Oct. 31, 2025), Salesforce posted revenue of about $10.3B (+9% Y/Y), GAAP op margin 21.3%, and non-GAAP op margin 35.5%. Free cash flow was $2.2B (+22% Y/Y). The company returned $4.2B to shareholders in the quarter (buybacks and dividends).
- cRPO: $29.4B (+11% Y/Y)
- Total RPO: $59.5B (+12% Y/Y)
- Agentforce + Data 360 ARR: nearly $1.4B, up 114% Y/Y
Salesforce raised FY2026 guidance to $41.45B-$41.55B in revenue and $11.75-$11.77 in non-GAAP EPS. Translation: backlog is holding, AI traction is showing up, but investors still want proof that agents lift growth and margins-not just costs.
Agentforce and Data 360: from copilots to digital labor
Salesforce is pushing agentic AI-systems that complete tasks end-to-end. The company says Agentforce ran more than 3.2 trillion tokens through its LLM gateway and has 9,500+ paid Agentforce deals. That's real adoption, but the question remains simple: will customers pay enough, soon enough, to move the revenue needle.
Pricing watch: flat-rate agent licensing (AELA)
Executives outlined a seat-based, flat-rate approach for agents-often called an Agentic Enterprise License Agreement. Budget predictability speeds adoption. The tradeoff: if usage outpaces pricing, margins can get squeezed in the near term.
Product: Agentforce Sales lands inside ChatGPT
On Dec. 17, Salesforce rolled out Agentforce Sales in ChatGPT. The pitch: cut the "toggle tax" by prioritizing leads with internal and external context, delegating follow-ups, and updating Salesforce records directly from the conversation. If conversational CRM drives usage and stickiness, that's bullish. If interfaces get commoditized by AI vendors, pricing power could drift.
M&A: Qualified and Informatica
Qualified: Salesforce signed a definitive agreement to acquire Qualified, an agentic AI marketing provider. The product is an "always-on" AI worker that turns websites into multi-modal dialogs to qualify and nurture leads. Expect integration into Agentforce for more autonomous pipeline generation. Closing is targeted for Q1 FY2027, pending approvals.
Informatica: Salesforce completed the roughly $8B Informatica deal on Nov. 18, 2025, bolstering data catalog, governance, integration, and metadata. Better data tends to improve AI outcomes and trust. The flip side is integration cost and focus-especially if AI monetization takes longer than expected.
Enterprise signals: large-scale deployments
- Novartis: selected Agentforce Life Sciences for Customer Engagement, building on Data 360 and MuleSoft.
- U.S. Department of Transportation: expanding its Salesforce partnership and adopting Agentforce to modernize transportation and safety systems.
Street targets and sentiment (as of Dec. 20)
- MarketBeat consensus: ~$326.68 (about 26% implied upside from ~$260)
- Investing.com consensus: ~ $330 (range: $223 to $475)
- Zacks: similarly wide range with upside from current levels
- Morningstar: fair value at $325; stock viewed as attractive
Mizuho set a $340 target, citing progress on adoption barriers and compelling FCF valuation looking out to 2027. HSBC put CRM at $336, framing software as the next leg of the AI trade. A KeyBanc CIO survey relayed by Barron's pointed to Microsoft capturing more incremental AI spend and limited reported Agentforce usage-clear execution risk.
Bull vs. bear setup for 2026
- Bull case: visible AI ARR growth; healthy RPO for visibility; platform depth via Informatica; agentic expansion via Qualified; marquee customers and public sector traction; valuation compressed vs history.
- Bear case: uncertain AI monetization timing; flat-rate pricing could pressure margins; intense competition from Microsoft, Oracle, and others; integration demands (Informatica now, Qualified next); risk that AI agents bypass incumbents.
What to watch next
- Next earnings (expected): Feb. 25, 2026
- AI adoption and pricing: Agentforce attach rates, paid deal counts, usage vs flat-rate economics, and margin impact.
- Qualified timeline: closing progress and early product integration details.
- Re-acceleration proof: cRPO growth, bookings color, expansion within existing customers, and net revenue retention.
Practical takeaways for finance leaders and investors
- CFOs/operators: if considering AELA, model usage scenarios vs flat-rate pricing. Stress-test gross margin and support costs as agent workloads scale.
- Investors: track Agentforce + Data 360 ARR, attach rates, and cRPO. Watch whether AI lifts operating leverage or compresses it. Benchmark against peers' AI monetization, especially Microsoft.
- Capital returns: monitor buyback pace and dividends relative to FCF and M&A outlays.
Bottom line: CRM looks more appealing on valuation than earlier this year, but 2026 needs to prove the agentic AI thesis-Agentforce, Data 360, AELA pricing, and targeted M&A-converts to durable growth and monetizable usage without denting margins.
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This content is for information only and is not investment advice.
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