Salesforce (CRM) Before the Bell: AI push, Informatica deal, and security risks set the tone for Nov. 28, 2025

Salesforce (CRM) Before the Bell: AI bets, Informatica, and security risk - what matters on November 28

Salesforce heads into the post-Thanksgiving session with the stock under pressure but loaded with catalysts. Shares closed Wednesday at $228.27, down about 30% year to date. The next big test hits on December 3 with Q3 FY26 earnings, while a third-party security incident and the just-closed Informatica deal keep the narrative busy.

If you're trading or managing exposure, the question is simple: can the AI and data story translate into durable growth without breaking trust or margins?

Price action and setup

• Last close: $228.27 (extended hours ~ $228.24). One-day move: about -2.5%.
• 2025 YTD: roughly -30%, lagging tech and the S&P 500.
• Valuation reset: P/E ~33, P/S ~5.6, P/B ~3.6. These sit near multi-year lows.
• Technicals: RSI mid-30s - edging toward oversold; beta ~1.5 keeps swings elevated.
• Fair value debate: a DCF from Simply Wall St pegs value near $374, implying notable upside if assumptions hold.

Earnings countdown: Q3 FY26 (Dec 3, after the close)

• Timing: report after market; call at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET. See Salesforce IR for details.
• Guidance: revenue $10.24-$10.29B (around 8-9% y/y), adjusted EPS $2.84-$2.86.
• Consensus: ~ $10.27B and $2.85 - effectively the midpoint of guidance.
• Q2 context: revenue ~ $10.2B (10% y/y), adjusted EPS $2.91 (beat), non-GAAP operating margin 34.3%.
• Capital returns: buyback authorization lifted to $50B (added $20B).
• AI traction: Data Cloud + AI ARR topped $1.2B, up ~120% y/y; 12,500 Agentforce deals closed since launch, 6,000+ paid.
• Why it matters: last quarter's beat didn't help the stock after a cautious Q3 outlook. This print is a referendum on AI monetization and the growth runway.

AI platform: Agentforce 360 and a tighter data core

At Dreamforce 2025, Salesforce reframed its product stack around AI agents and first-party data.

• Agentforce Platform: build, test, and deploy autonomous agents across sales, service, and marketing workflows.
• Data 360: the upgraded data layer (formerly Data Cloud) that converts documents and structured data into context for agents.
• Slack as the "agentic" workspace: where humans and agents collaborate with a more capable assistant.
• OpenAI integration: deeper native access (including GPT-5) and the ability for ChatGPT to surface Agentforce data securely.

The pitch: embed AI where the work happens and feed it cleaner, connected data - not a generic chatbot bolted on top.

Informatica closed: bigger swing at the data layer

Salesforce completed the $8B Informatica acquisition on November 18. The goal is to strengthen governance, quality, and integration across Data 360, MuleSoft, and Tableau - the plumbing agents depend on.

• What to listen for: integration timeline and cost profile, packaging with the broader platform, and any early synergy proof points.
• Bull vs. bear: bulls see a stronger moat as customers standardize on a trusted data stack; skeptics see execution risk and question ROI.

Cybersecurity overhang: Gainsight and OAuth abuse

Salesforce reported "unusual activity" tied to Gainsight-published apps using OAuth tokens. Salesforce revoked affected tokens and temporarily removed the apps from AppExchange. Researchers link the activity to broader OAuth-based campaigns from groups like ShinyHunters/Scattered Spider.

• Scope watch: updated customer counts, any large-enterprise disclosures, and whether Salesforce tightens guidance or spending around security.
• Key nuance: current signs point to third-party integrations and tokens, not a breach of Salesforce's core infrastructure.
• Context: SaaS supply-chain trouble isn't new this year; that keeps sentiment fragile. Coverage example: Reuters cybersecurity.

Cyber Week demand: a live AI adoption check

Salesforce's commerce data calls for a 6% y/y increase in global Cyber Week sales to ~$334B (U.S. ~$78B). AI-assistant-driven traffic is up ~119% y/y, and AI is expected to influence about $73B of global online sales - roughly 22% of orders.

Why this matters: it's a clean, near-term read on AI utility. Stronger holiday commentary on Commerce Cloud and Agentforce Commerce could offset skepticism heading into the print.

Street view and recent moves

• Consensus: "Moderate Buy" with an average 12-month target near $323; range ~$221 to ~$430.
• Notable actions: Citigroup cut target to $253 (Hold); Bank of America to $305 (Buy); Cantor $325 (Overweight); Mizuho $340 (Buy); JMP $430 (Market Outperform).
• Longer-term debate: some outlets highlight underperformance vs. the S&P over five years and want clearer proof that AI can push growth back into double digits.

Competition: the AI agent race is on

Sierra - co-founded by Bret Taylor and Clay Bavor - is pushing goal-driven agents and an Agent Data Platform with hundreds of enterprise deployments. Sierra leans bespoke; Salesforce leans pre-integrated with Customer 360, Data 360, and Slack.

Translation: expect more scrutiny of Agentforce adoption metrics, price points, and attach rates on the call.

What to watch into Friday - and into Q3 FY26

• Sentiment after the drawdown: near-term relief possible if there's anything positive on security, AI KPIs, or holiday demand.
• Security disclosures: size of the Gainsight impact, any regulated filings from big customers, and Salesforce's third-party risk posture.
• AI monetization proof: updated AI/Data Cloud ARR, large Agentforce deals ($1M+), and Cyber Week demand reads.
• Informatica integration: timelines, costs, packaging, and early cross-sell evidence.
• Guidance: any tweaks to FY26 (roughly 10% revenue growth; EPS low-to-mid $11s) and longer-term targets toward revenue scale and margin expansion.

Possible tape reactions near term

• Upside skew: credible security containment + stronger holiday AI commentary + steady Q3 guide.
• Downside skew: wider breach impact, cautious tone on AI demand, or heavier integration costs.
• Chop: quiet headlines into the print and positioning dominates a thin post-holiday tape.

Bottom line

CRM sits at a crossroads. The bull case leans on double-digit growth, sturdier margins, fast-rising AI/Data ARR, Informatica synergies, and a sizable buyback - all now at a discounted multiple. The bear case points to AI proof still pending, tougher competition in agents, slower top-line than the old days, and live third-party security risk.

For now, price is soft, expectations are tight, and the next week will answer whether the AI + data thesis is moving from slideware to sustained revenue.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.