WULF Stock Doubles on Google-Backed AI Pivot - One New Warning to Watch
TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF) has been one of 2025's standout tickers. Shares are up about 117% year-to-date, closing near $13.71 on Oct. 24 after hitting a 52-week high of $16.19 earlier in the month. Trading volume spiked to roughly 27.3 million shares that day, signaling intense interest from both retail and institutions.
The spark: a decisive move beyond Bitcoin mining into AI data centers. Add Google's backing, long-term contracts, cheap clean power, and suddenly WULF is more than a miner - it's an emerging compute infrastructure play.
The catalyst: AI hosting deals with Google in the mix
In August, TeraWulf signed two 10-year hosting agreements with Fluidstack covering 200+ MW of AI compute at Lake Mariner (NY). The deals are worth about $3.7 billion in contracted revenue, with extensions that could lift the total to roughly $8.7 billion.
Google stepped in on financing, ultimately agreeing to support approximately $3.2 billion of project debt across phases. In exchange, it received warrants lifting its stake to about 14%. New liquid-cooled data halls are slated to come online in the second half of 2026.
TeraWulf also secured an 80-year lease on the former Cayuga site in New York. It targets 138 MW of low-cost power (~$0.05/kWh) by 2026 and up to 400 MW longer term - mostly tied to a clean grid. The company layered on capital: $1.0 billion of 1% converts due 2031 and a record $3.2 billion in senior secured notes at 7.75% due 2030, backed by data center assets and Google's support mechanics.
Analyst stance: mostly bullish, one fresh "Sell"
Wall Street has leaned green on WULF. JMP set an $18 target, Rosenblatt went to $20, and Northland to $16.25, calling the 7.75% bond pricing "very attractive." Some targets stretch into the low $20s as firms underwrite the AI buildout and Google's involvement.
There is pushback. Compass Point's initiation at $6.50 highlights execution and valuation risk. And on Oct. 26, research firm Wall Street Zen cut its rating to "Sell," a notable outlier as the broader consensus still sits at Moderate Buy.
Why investors care: green energy, lower costs, diversified revenue
TeraWulf runs on nearly 100% carbon-free power - hydro in New York and nuclear in Pennsylvania - which reduces exposure to environmental crackdowns that have hit fossil-fueled miners. Cheap, cleaner electricity also matters for 24/7 compute economics.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining is getting tougher: a 2024 halving reduced block rewards, difficulty sits near highs, and BTC has pulled back. WULF's answer is to keep mining costs low and add a second engine: high-performance computing for AI clients. That mix can smooth revenue through crypto cycles if executed well.
Recent price action
By late October, shares were choppy between roughly $12.80 and $14.17. On Oct. 24, the stock jumped 6.4% on heavy volume. Momentum is strong, but expectations are higher - and the new "Sell" rating adds a dose of caution.
What could go right from here
- HPC revenue ramp: Initial AI hosting should start showing up, with bigger contributions into 2026.
- On-time builds: New liquid-cooled halls at Lake Mariner and the first 138 MW at Cayuga hit milestones without overruns.
- Deal flow: Additional leases as demand for AI compute stays hot; potential campus expansions.
- Financing tailwinds: Attractive debt terms point to improving confidence and lower capital costs.
What could go wrong
- Execution risk: Construction delays or integration hiccups could push out revenue and dent margins.
- Concentration: Large contracts and financing tied to a few partners increase dependence risks.
- Leverage: $3.2B in notes plus converts requires consistent delivery and healthy utilization.
- Crypto volatility: A sharp BTC drawdown or tougher difficulty can compress mining cash flow.
- Valuation: After a 100%+ run, any miss can trigger a sharp re-rate.
Key numbers at a glance
- YTD performance: ≈+117%.
- Recent close: ~$13.71 (Oct. 24); 52-week high: $16.19.
- Volume spike: ~27.3M shares (Oct. 24).
- AI hosting: 200+ MW, ~$3.7B over 10 years; potential extension up to ~$8.7B.
- Google: ~$3.2B financing support; ≈14% stake via warrants.
- Debt: $3.2B senior secured notes at 7.75% (2030) + $1.0B 1% converts (2031).
- Power: nearly 100% clean (hydro and nuclear), ~5¢/kWh targeted at Cayuga.
How to position it
If you're evaluating WULF, think in scenarios.
- Bull case: AI hosting ramps on schedule, projects land on budget, revenue roughly doubles from 2025 to 2026; stock adds another 50-70% over time.
- Base case: Staggered wins with occasional delays; shares consolidate with bursts on milestones and BTC moves.
- Bear case: Slippage on builds or utilization, tighter credit, or a weak BTC tape forces a valuation reset.
Events to watch
- Q3 2025 earnings and any HPC revenue recognition updates.
- Construction progress at Lake Mariner (liquid-cooled halls) and Cayuga's first 138 MW.
- Additional AI hosting wins, financing updates, or capacity expansions.
- Bitcoin price and network difficulty - still a key swing factor for cash flow.
For real-time quote and filings, see WULF's page on Nasdaq and the company's investor site.
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Bottom line
WULF has caught a powerful bid by pairing cheap, clean energy with AI data center demand - and bringing Google to the table. The story now pivots to execution: revenue ramp, build timelines, and capital discipline. If those line up, the re-rate can stick. If not, the stock's premium will be quick to compress.
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