Uncertainty-aware AI fuses expert knowledge and data to fast-track high-entropy alloy discovery

JAIST built an AI that fuses data with expert knowledge to predict high-entropy alloys and track uncertainty. Results hit 86-92% accuracy and highlight gaps to guide experiments.

Categorized in: AI News Science and Research
Published on: Feb 14, 2026
Uncertainty-aware AI fuses expert knowledge and data to fast-track high-entropy alloy discovery

Advancing AI for science: extracting and fusing cross-disciplinary expert knowledge with data to accelerate alloy discovery

News Release - 13-Feb-2026
Ishikawa, Japan

High-entropy alloys promise serious performance in extreme environments, but discovering useful compositions is slow and costly. A team led by researchers at the Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (JAIST) has built an AI-for-Science framework that fuses experimental data with expert knowledge extracted from literature-while quantifying uncertainty at every step.

Instead of betting on models that only interpolate around known data, the framework uses two independent evidence streams and a formal method to combine them. The result: reliable predictions even for poorly studied compositions, and clear signals on where current knowledge falls short.

Why this matters for materials R&D

HEAs mix multiple elements in near-equal ratios to achieve strength, stability, and durability. But each added element explodes the search space, making brute-force exploration impractical.

Conventional machine learning can help, but performance drops as you move away from well-studied regions. Meanwhile, decades of substitution rules and mechanistic insights are scattered across papers-hard to use at scale.

What the team built

The study, published in Digital Discovery (19-Dec-2025), integrates materials data with AI-extracted knowledge from five disciplines: metallurgy, solid-state physics, materials mechanics, materials science, and corrosion science. The team includes researchers from JAIST, HPC Systems (Japan), the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Japan), and Duke University (USA).

  • Two evidence sources for elemental substitution: (1) materials datasets where near-identical alloys imply substitutable elements; (2) judgments extracted from literature using large language models (GPT-4o, GPT-.5, Claude Opus 4, Grok3).
  • Evidence fusion via Dempster-Shafer theory, which explicitly represents uncertainty and ignorance.
  • Uncertainty-aware predictions and compositional maps that highlight where the model is confident versus where information is thin.

Performance highlights

  • Accurate predictions for alloys containing elements absent from the training data, with 86%-92% accuracy.
  • Validation against 55 experimentally confirmed quaternary alloys from the literature.
  • Outperformed conventional ML baselines in data-scarce settings and beat more computationally expensive free-energy models.

How it works (at a glance)

  • Identify substitution patterns by comparing alloy pairs that differ by one element in large datasets.
  • Query LLMs across five disciplines to extract cross-checked expert judgments from scientific papers.
  • Convert each evidence stream into belief functions and fuse them using Dempster-Shafer theory.
  • Score candidate alloys with explicit confidence and uncertainty; generate maps to guide experiments.

As the team puts it: "Traditional classifiers force binary 'yes-or-no' predictions even when information is insufficient. Our approach explicitly quantifies uncertainty, allowing 'we cannot tell' as a legitimate scientific outcome."

What this enables for researchers

  • Explore under-sampled composition spaces without overfitting to familiar chemistries.
  • Plan experiments where they'll be most informative, using uncertainty maps to prioritize.
  • Systematically integrate dispersed expert knowledge with data-useful well beyond alloys.
  • Extend the same workflow to drug discovery, batteries, and catalysts where substitution, mechanism, and data scarcity are common.

Publication and reference

Peer-Reviewed Publication
Digital Discovery - DOI: 10.1039/D5DD00400D
Title: Beyond interpolation: integration of data and AI-extracted knowledge for high-entropy alloy discovery
Authors: Minh-Quyet Ha, Dinh-Khiet Le, Viet-Cuong Nguyen, Hiori Kino, Stefano Curtarolo, and Hieu-Chi Dam

Credit: Hieu-Chi Dam from Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Japan.

About JAIST

Founded in 1990 in Ishikawa prefecture, JAIST is a leading graduate university in Japan with a coursework-oriented curriculum designed to support high-impact research. Diversity is central to its mission; about 40% of alumni are international students. The university collaborates closely with industry and global partners.

About Professor Hieu-Chi Dam

Professor Hieu-Chi Dam holds appointments at JAIST and Tohoku University's International Center for Synchrotron Radiation Innovation. His work spans data science and materials informatics, integrating first-principles calculations, machine learning, and diffraction physics across magnetic materials, superconductivity, and strongly correlated systems, with 90+ publications.

Funding

Supported by JST-CREST (JPMJCR2235); JSPS KAKENHI (20K05301, JP19H05815, 20K05068, 23KJ1035, 23K03950, JP23H05403). S.C. acknowledges US-DoD ONR MURI N00014-21-1-251. H.K. acknowledges JST ASPIRE "International Collaborative Research Network for Advanced Atomic Layer Processes." The authors thank Dr Huan Tran and Dr Xiomara Campilongo for discussions.

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