Vertiv's Record AI Backlog Puts Valuation And Growth Assumptions In Focus
United States / Electrical / NYSE:VRT * February 14, 2026
What's new
Vertiv reported a record fourth quarter backed by AI and data center demand. Management cited a US$15b order backlog and strong organic orders tied to AI-centric builds.
The company is adding production capacity and pushing deeper into liquid cooling and prefabricated AI data center systems. Guidance was set with confidence, assuming continued AI infrastructure spend.
Why managers should care
AI workloads are stressing grids, floorspace, and thermal limits. That puts vendors like Vertiv-focused on electrical distribution, thermal management, and infrastructure-at the center of deployment timelines and budgets.
A record backlog signals a heavy project queue. The question now is execution: how fast that backlog turns into revenue and how widely new architectures (liquid cooling, prefab blocks) get adopted.
How to pressure-test the story
- Backlog conversion: Lead times, cancellation risk, and milestone dependencies. Watch book-to-bill and on-time delivery.
- Liquid cooling adoption: Qualification cycles, facility readiness, serviceability, and the capex/opex trade-off.
- Prefab systems: Can standardized blocks shorten schedules without blowing up site work or permitting?
- Capacity and supply chain: Availability of switchgear, thermal equipment, and controls; vendor concentration; logistics.
- Pricing and margins: Mix shift toward liquid cooling and services, pricing discipline, warranty and start-up costs.
- Working capital: Cash conversion and inventory turns with longer project cycles.
- Customer mix: Hyperscaler concentration, enterprise/telecom exposure, and credit terms.
Signals to watch in coming quarters
- Organic order growth explicitly tied to AI projects.
- Book-to-bill trends and backlog burn versus guidance.
- Factory throughput and field commissioning timelines.
- Service and software attach rates (recurring revenue mix).
Operator takeaways
Lock specs early. Electrical and thermal long-lead items often gate go-live dates more than compute does.
If you're considering liquid cooling, align choices with chip TDP roadmaps, facility water policies, and maintenance capabilities. Prefab blocks can compress schedules if civil work and utilities are ready on time.
Key risks to manage
- Hyperscalers slow spending to digest prior builds.
- Standards and interoperability for liquid cooling drag, adding complexity.
- Execution missteps while scaling factories and field operations.
- Service backlog burns slower than planned, pressuring cash conversion.
Bottom line
Vertiv posted record results with a US$15b backlog and firm guidance. The thesis hinges on backlog conversion and adoption of liquid cooling and prefabricated systems.
For management teams planning AI capacity, assume tight lead times, secure critical components early, and pressure-test site readiness to protect schedules.
Helpful resources
- ASHRAE TC 9.9: guidance on liquid cooling for datacom
- Uptime Institute research on data center practices
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Disclosure: This is general commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts. It isn't financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Your objectives and financial situation were not considered, and recent market-moving updates may not be reflected.
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