Why AI Isn’t Replacing Blue Collar Jobs—And Why Gen Z Is Turning to the Trades

AI and Job Security: Why Manual Labor Still Holds Strong

The buzz around artificial intelligence (AI) taking over jobs is loud, but the reality is more nuanced. Despite the U.S. labor market facing challenges, clear evidence linking AI to significant job losses remains limited.

Geoffrey Hinton, a pioneer in AI often called the “Godfather of AI,” puts it simply: “Train to be a plumber.” His point? Jobs involving hands-on skills and manual labor are less vulnerable to automation compared to many white-collar roles.

Why Skilled Trades Are Safer from AI Disruption

Manual work requires physical presence, improvisation, and expertise that AI and robots can’t fully replicate—at least not yet. For example, plumbers, roofers, and HVAC technicians perform complex tasks that demand human judgment and dexterity.

According to Microsoft, jobs like interpreters, customer service, and writers face more risk from AI, while roles such as hazardous material removal workers and nursing assistants are considered safer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects growth in many trade jobs, reflecting solid demand ahead.

Tony Spagnoli, an expert in HVAC technician education, highlights that automation poses a low threat because these jobs involve physically installing and repairing equipment—something AI can't easily replace.

How Gen Z is Responding to AI Job Concerns

A recent survey showed that 42% of Generation Z adults surveyed are pursuing blue-collar or skilled trade jobs. Their motivation? Avoiding student debt and reducing the risk of AI replacing their roles.

Blue-collar work offers a practical path to financial stability, especially for those without a college degree. And males in Gen Z are more likely to choose these careers regardless of education level.

Many graduates find their degrees don’t lead directly to jobs, prompting a shift to hands-on trades that are harder to automate. This trend reflects a pragmatic approach to job security in an uncertain AI-driven future.

Will AI Eventually Impact Skilled Trades?

While manual jobs are currently safer, advances in robotics combined with AI might change that in time. Humanoid and task-specific robots are improving, and entry-level roles like truck driving and equipment moving could see automation first.

Still, there’s a significant gap between robotic capabilities and the nuanced, real-world work tradespeople do. AI models mainly process text data and lack real-world awareness, limiting their use in physical tasks.

Ken Goldberg, president of the Robot Learning Foundation at UC Berkeley, calls the idea of humanoid robots replacing workers a “myth” for now. Progress is steady but slow.

The Future: Collaboration Between Humans and AI

Instead of outright replacement, AI and robotics are likely to assist skilled workers. For example, the automotive industry uses AI to diagnose car problems but still relies on mechanics for repairs and part replacements.

Matt Shepanek from the National Institute for Automotive Service Excellence points out that while AI can help identify issues, the physical work remains a human task.

For IT and development professionals, understanding where AI fits in the workforce can inform career decisions. Upskilling with AI knowledge and tools can provide an edge, especially as AI integrates more into various fields.

Explore practical AI courses that focus on real-world applications and automation at Complete AI Training to stay ahead.