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AI agent for supply chain analysts

Demand Forecast Accuracy Review Agent

Lower forecast error each cycle by fixing the worst items' causes

Demand Forecast Accuracy Review Agent: what goes in, what the agent does and what you get

What it does

Each month the forecast is compared with what sold, but few teams act on the errors, so the same items miss again. This agent calculates forecast error and bias by item and family, then ranks items by the cost of their error, not just the percentage. Before blaming the forecast, it checks that the sales history is clean: it removes one-time orders and uses orders instead of shipments where stockouts hid demand. If the data is not clean, it fixes the history and recalculates. For the worst items it looks for causes such as promotions, lost customers or a model that misses seasonality. It drafts adjustment suggestions for the next cycle with the reason for each. The planner approves any change to the forecast.

How it works

Follow the arrows from top to bottom. The orange dashed arrow is the loop: when a check fails, the agent goes back and tries again.

Start and resultWhat it doesA check on its own workWaits for your OKGoes back and retries
Yes, continueApprovedNo 1 STARTS WHEN Month sales close 2 USES A TOOL Calculate error and bias by item 3 DOES Clean history for one-time orders and stockouts 4 CHECKS THE RESULT Is the history clean enough to judge the forecast? If not: mark the outliers and recalculate error. Back tostep 3. 5 DOES Rank items by error cost and find causes 6 DOES Draft forecast adjustments 7 YOU APPROVE Planner approves forecast changes 8 RESULT Accuracy review and updated forecast
Read the steps as a list
  1. Month sales close
  2. Calculate error and bias by item
  3. Clean history for one-time orders and stockouts
  4. Is the history clean enough to judge the forecast?If not: mark the outliers and recalculate error. Back to step 3.
  5. Rank items by error cost and find causes
  6. Draft forecast adjustments
  7. Planner approves forecast changesThe agent waits here for your OK.
  8. Accuracy review and updated forecast

How it decides

It ranks items by error value and requires a likely cause before suggesting a change.

  • Bias over the set level for three months needs action
  • Use orders when stockouts hide demand
  • Rank by cost, not percent

Make it yours

Every agent is a starting point. You choose these settings for your own situation.

  • Error measure used
  • Number of items reviewed
  • Bias threshold
  • Outlier rules

What keeps you in control

It always asks you first

  • Changing the forecast

Hard limits

  • Never changes the forecast directly

It stops when

  • Done: review approved
  • Stop: sales data incomplete; wait for close

Set it up

We guide you through the set-up, step by step

Members get the full set-up guide for this agent. No technical skills needed: you copy, paste and upload.

10 minto set it up in your AI
5 AIsChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Gemini, Grok
  • One set of instructions to paste into your AI, with the clicks for ChatGPT, Claude, Microsoft 365 Copilot, Gemini and Grok
  • The agent then walks you through connecting your own data, one source at a time
  • A downloadable copy with the flow chart, the rules and the full guide
Get access to this agent

An example run

What happensItem 4471 showed 35% over-forecast in August. The data check failed because a one-time 2,000 unit order from last year was still in the history. The agent removed it and recalculated, and the error fell to 12%. It then found a steady decline since a customer switched suppliers and suggested lowering the baseline by 8%. The planner approved.

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