Looking ahead to 2026: Can Apple stage a comeback after its AI struggles?
Apple has fallen behind on AI. Competitors shipped faster, better models and visible product wins, while Apple's upgrades to Siri and Apple Intelligence underwhelmed. The question for executives and sales leaders: does Apple claw back by 2026-or does the gap start showing up in deals and device choices?
Apple's AI gap is real
Google pushed forward with Gemini, OpenAI advanced its video model Sora, and Microsoft and Amazon improved their stacks. Apple's promised Siri overhaul didn't land as expected in 2024, and Apple Intelligence drew mixed reviews. The result: a narrative that Apple is late-and a market that rewards speed.
Leadership reset, not just a reshuffle
John Giannandrea, Apple's AI chief, is retiring. Key AI leaders left for Meta midyear. Instead of a one-for-one replacement, Apple split AI reporting lines across Craig Federighi (Software Engineering), Sabih Khan (COO), and Eddy Cue (Services), and brought in Amar Subramanya as VP of AI.
Jawad Ashraf said the move matters "because it changes reporting lines and accountability." He added Apple's position is shaped by product values and constraints, while the industry now rewards scale and iteration speed. Anis Chohan called the hire "a reset"-and a sign Apple knows how far behind it is.
Can Subramanya change the playbook?
Subramanya's background spans 16 years at Google and a recent VP role in AI at Microsoft. That pedigree suggests Apple wants a builder who ships. Still, the core issue isn't one executive-it's how Apple balances privacy, on-device processing, and pace. Execution speed will be the tell.
Siri with Gemini: time-buying move, real risks
Bloomberg reported Apple plans to use Google's model to upgrade Siri. That's a practical admission: build your own, but don't wait. Licensing Gemini could deliver a near-term lift while Apple develops internal models.
As Ashraf noted, this is less surrender and more time-buying. Chohan said it fits Apple's pattern: lean on partners, learn, then build in-house. The risk, per Ashraf: Siri becoming a thin wrapper over someone else's intelligence-creating dependency, product inconsistency, and perception issues.
iPhone sales are buying time
Despite AI concerns, iPhone 17 demand is strong. Apple's stock is up 11% YTD, and shipments may surpass Samsung for the first time in 14 years. IDC forecasts Apple's shipments to grow 6.1% YoY in 2025, versus 3.9% in the prior cycle, with China performance improving.
The worry is timing. Chohan warned the real test comes when AI becomes a key buying factor. Samsung is already leaning into Galaxy AI, and Chinese OEMs ship devices with local LLMs. If Gemini-powered Siri slips past spring 2026-or disappoints-sales momentum could turn.
Medium-term threats are forming
If assistants become the primary interface for search, commerce, and tasks, "great phone" won't be enough. Apple needs a native-feeling AI layer that is dependable at everyday workflows. If it lands, the upgrade cycle extends. If it misses, momentum fades-Ashraf's point is hard to ignore.
There's also a new hardware wildcard. OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's startup io for $6.4B and has a prototype AI device, with a target under two years. That could shift customer behavior and dent iPhone stickiness if it redefines daily interactions.
Eddy Cue told a court in May that AI could make iPhones obsolete in a decade. That's a stark internal recognition of the risk-and the urgency.
What executives and sales leaders should do now
- Scenario-plan 2026: one path with a strong Siri overhaul landing on time, one with delays or limited features. Align marketing budgets, retail training, and channel incentives to both.
- Hedge on partnerships: if Apple leans on Gemini, expect shifts in defaults, search economics, and cross-ecosystem integrations. Pressure-test your dependency on Siri, Google, and OpenAI simultaneously.
- Prep competitive talk tracks: build clear head-to-head messaging versus Galaxy AI and Chinese OEMs with on-device LLMs. Sell outcomes (productivity, support, security), not feature names.
- Plan sales enablement windows: target Q3-Q4 2026 for refreshed demos and value proof if Siri upgrades ship in spring. Have a fallback plan if timing slips.
- Focus on data privacy and reliability: Apple's edge is trust. If Siri relies on third-party brains, address privacy and consistency questions early in enterprise accounts.
- Pilot AI workflows now: deploy lightweight assistant use cases for prospecting, support, and field sales. Prove ROI before 2026 so you're not starting from zero when Apple's stack matures.
- Watch China leading indicators: if iPhone strength holds even as AI messaging intensifies, Apple has more room. If not, assume faster pricing pressure and promo cycles.
- Upskill teams: align product, sales, and CS on AI literacy. A practical catalog by job function helps. See curated options at Complete AI Training.
The 2026 read
Apple can still pull this off. A Gemini-powered Siri that feels useful, fast, and reliable would reset the narrative while internal models catch up. Strong iPhone sales give Apple time, but not forever.
If assistants become the default interface and Apple's feels second-tier, the market will punish it. The next 18 months are about speed, partnerships, and execution-on Apple's side, and on yours.
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