AI demand to drive semiconductor equipment sales to record $133B in 2025, SEMI forecasts

SEMI: Semiconductor Equipment Sales to Hit $133B in 2025 as AI Spending Accelerates

AI demand is turning into purchase orders. SEMI's latest Year-End Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast - OEM Perspective, released at SEMICON Japan 2025, calls for global equipment sales to reach $133 billion in 2025, up 13.7% year over year.

The run doesn't stop there. SEMI projects $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027 as capital spending targets AI workloads, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and leading-edge nodes.

Key numbers to brief your team

• Total equipment: $133B in 2025 → $145B in 2026 → $156B in 2027
• Wafer fab equipment (WFE): $115.7B in 2025 (+11.0%), then +9.0% in 2026 and +7.3% in 2027 to $135.2B
• Test: $11.2B in 2025 (+48.1%), then +12.0% in 2026 and +7.1% in 2027
• Assembly & packaging: $6.4B in 2025 (+19.6%), then +9.2% in 2026 and +6.9% in 2027
• Foundry/logic WFE: $66.6B in 2025 (+9.8%), reaching $75.2B by 2027
• Memory WFE: NAND to $14.0B in 2025 (+45.4%); DRAM to $22.5B in 2025 (+15.4%), with further gains through 2027

Where demand is heating up

Front-end leads. WFE remains the anchor with upside from DRAM and HBM to feed AI compute, plus steady expansion in China. Expect continued spend on advanced logic (including 2nm gate-all-around) and next-gen memory as hyperscalers and HPC workloads scale.

Back-end is in a multi-year upcycle. Test rebounds sharply in 2025, with momentum continuing through 2027. Assembly and packaging rises on the shift to advanced and heterogeneous packaging to meet AI processor and HBM performance needs.

Regional focus for account planning

• China: Still the top spender through 2027, centered on mature and select advanced nodes; growth moderates after 2025.
• Taiwan: Heavy 2025 investments in leading-edge capacity for AI and HPC.
• South Korea: Aggressive memory capex, especially HBM-oriented lines.
• All other regions: Higher spending in 2026-2027 supported by incentives, regionalization, and specialty capacity adds.

How sales teams can win this cycle

• Prioritize AI-linked lines: HBM, advanced DRAM, 3D NAND stacking, and 2nm-class logic. Map each account's AI program to your WFE, metrology, inspection, and process control portfolio.
• Package the value: For advanced packaging and heterogeneous integration, bundle tools with recipes, on-site enablement, and reliability services tied to yield and throughput KPIs.
• Lead with test ROI: Position test upgrades around cycle time, coverage for chiplets/SiP, and parallelism wins. Quantify OEE gains and scrap avoidance.
• Land services early: Offer multi-year service, spares, and upgrades aligned to ramp schedules. Lock in install base before tool delivery.
• Tie messaging to outcomes: Faster AI training times, lower total cost per bit (HBM/NAND), and predictable yields on leading nodes.

Talk tracks that convert

• For memory makers: "We reduce cost per gigabit and improve stack yields across new layers, with field data from recent HBM/3D NAND ramps."
• For foundry/logic: "Our toolset supports gate-all-around variability control and across-wafer uniformity, with proven process windows at 2nm-class."
• For OSATs and IDMs: "Shorter package cycle times and higher known-good-die rates for AI accelerators mean faster revenue turns."

Timing and deal strategy

• Front-load 2025: Funding is active now. Target projects tied to AI capacity adds; propose phased deployments with clear milestones.
• Stage 2026-2027 expansions: Use multi-year agreements with price-protection and upgrade paths to de-risk budgets and secure footprint.
• Offer financing options: Align payment schedules to ramp and acceptance tests to remove budget friction.

Risks to watch (and how to address them)

• Mixed end markets: Consumer, automotive, and industrial are softer. Anchor proposals to AI/data center demand with conservative upside from the rest.
• Export and compliance: Coordinate early with legal and logistics. Provide compliant alternates and country-of-origin clarity in bids.
• Lead times: Set realistic delivery windows and hold buffer inventory for critical spares. Share build plans to avoid surprises.

Segment-by-segment cues

• WFE: Emphasize process control, patterning, and deposition/etch tuned for HBM and 2nm-class nodes. Show benchmarks on yield ramp speed.
• Test: Highlight coverage for chiplets and high-IO AI devices, with cost-per-test models and parallel test capabilities.
• Assembly & packaging: Focus on advanced packaging flows (2.5D/3D, CoWoS-like processes), reliability, and thermal performance.

Further reading and enablement

• SEMI: Market data and equipment outlooks
• AI courses by job: Upskill your sales team for AI-led accounts

Bottom line: AI is driving a multi-year capex cycle across front-end and back-end. Align your pipeline to AI-heavy programs, lead with yield and throughput, and secure multi-year agreements while budgets are open.