AI to Drive $263bn in Holiday Sales as Growth Slows and In-Store Shopping Endures

Retail AI set to drive $263bn this Holiday season - but stores still close the deal

Holiday retail growth is expected to slow in 2025 even as artificial intelligence takes a bigger seat at the table. AI is projected to influence $263 billion in sales. In-store shopping remains a core conversion channel, according to Salesforce.

Translation for sales leaders: AI will lift targeting, conversion, and margins, but the store is still where trust gets built and baskets get bigger. Your plan needs to do both well.

Why growth slows while AI usage climbs

Shoppers are smarter, more price-aware, and selective about where they buy. Discounts and free shipping aren't enough to spark impulse at scale. AI will make demand more efficient, not explosive.

The winners will be the brands that simplify choices, prove value, and reduce friction across the full journey - ad, site, and store.

Where AI will actually move revenue

• Targeting and media efficiency: Better audience quality, lower CPAs, smarter bid strategies.
• Product discovery: AI search, guided selling, and bundling that shorten time-to-cart.
• Pricing and promo: Dynamic offers based on intent, inventory, and margin constraints.
• Inventory visibility: Local availability, BOPIS/ship-from-store steering to reduce out-of-stocks.
• Service automation: Pre-purchase Q&A and post-purchase support that cuts churn and WISMO contacts.
• Creative at scale: Faster, more relevant ad and email variants for different segments.

For context on shopping behavior trends, see the Salesforce Shopping Index here.

Stores still matter - here's why

• Trust and touch: High consideration items and gifting see higher in-store close rates.
• Attachment: Associates drive add-ons, warranties, and services that ecom misses.
• Convenience: BOPIS, BORIS, and same-day needs keep foot traffic steady.
• Experience: Events, fittings, demos, and try-ons create reasons to visit.

AI helps stores by routing the right shoppers to the right locations, prepping baskets before the visit, and giving associates context to make every minute count.

Holiday 2025 sales playbook (use this)

• 1) Align demand and inventory: Link promo plans to store-level stock. Push local pickup when ship windows get tight.
• 2) Turn search into selling: Implement AI search and guided recommendations. Focus on bundles, alternatives, and back-in-stock alerts.
• 3) Personalize offers with guardrails: Segment by intent and margin. Cap discounts where conversion doesn't need them.
• 4) Make stores part of the funnel: Use "find in store," reserve online, and appointment booking. Message wait times and quick pickup windows.
• 5) Enable associates: Provide customer history, likely needs, and talking points on a single screen. Incent on attachment and units per transaction, not just revenue.
• 6) Speed up service: Deflect routine questions with AI chat. Escalate high-value shoppers to humans fast.
• 7) Protect margins late-season: Move from blanket markdowns to targeted incentives and timed bundles.
• 8) Tighten media: Shift budget to proven segments and SKUs with depth. Cut vanity impressions.
• 9) Build a returns plan: Use pre-paid labels and in-store returns to capture exchanges and upsell.
• 10) Stress test the stack: Model traffic spikes, page load, and store pickup capacity before November.

Metrics that matter

• Marketing: CPA by audience, assisted conversions, and incrementality, not just ROAS.
• Merchandising: Attach rate, basket margin, and sell-through by location.
• Digital: Product discovery rate, PDP-to-cart rate, search refinement rate.
• Stores: BOPIS conversion, wait time, units per transaction, associate-assisted revenue.
• Service: Time to resolution, deflection rate, and churn risk post-contact.

Practical timeline

• Now: Freeze promo calendar, map to inventory, QA AI search and recommendations.
• Mid-October: Train associates on top SKUs, bundles, and clienteling scripts. Validate pickup SLAs.
• Early November: Launch waitlists, price-drop alerts, and back-in-stock notifications.
• Cyber Week: Daily budget shifts, SKU-level throttling, and pickup slot management.
• Mid-December: Pivot to store-led fulfillment, gift cards, and last-minute bundles.

Risk controls

• Data quality: Keep feeds clean. Bad catalog data ruins recommendations and search.
• Offer fairness: Set rules to avoid confusing price disparities across channels.
• Privacy: Use compliant audiences and clear consent flows for personalization.
• Model drift: Monitor performance weekly and retrain as assortments and demand change.

Upskill your sales org on AI workflows

Equip your team to plan campaigns, build offers, and run playbooks with AI. If you need structured training, explore curated options by role here.

AI will influence more money this season, but stores will convert the big moments. Integrate both, watch the right metrics, and you'll grow share even in a slower market.