New research from Forrester identifies software development, application tooling, and IT services as the tech job categories most exposed to AI-driven disruption. The global analyst firm examined how AI will reshape technology markets for both vendors and enterprise buyers, concluding that labor-intensive knowledge work faces the greatest upheaval.
Forrester's report, which maps AI's impact across dozens of tech market segments, found that only three categories are positioned for clear growth: infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access, and network security. Everything else must adapt.
"Every technology and service market is facing an AI overhaul," said Craig Le Clair, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. "Our research shows that AI's benefits will not be distributed evenly across technology markets. Only markets in three categories - infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access, and network security - are broadly positioned for clear growth. Technologies in the other categories will be forced to adapt."
Development tools in the direct path of genAI
Forrester singled out application development and software as a category likely to be hit hard. This includes tooling, content management, and IT management software that produce and run applications.
"This is the path of genAI-code development," the report said. Application generation, low-code platforms, autonomous testing platforms, content management systems, digital experience platforms, knowledge management solutions, and enterprise architecture management suites are "directly in the path of genAI-code development," according to Forrester. AI Learning Path for Software Developers
IT services face similar pressure. "Direct AI substitution reduces core implementation work," Forrester said. Services to implement Oracle, Salesforce, SAP, and Workday all showed headwinds. The most severely disrupted market is business process outsourcing, where lower-value services, testing, and software development will sell at reduced rates.
Enterprise software adapts rather than disappears
The report pushed back on fears of a SaaS apocalypse. Business applications, governance and compliance, process automation, and customer experience will change as AI transforms workflows, but they won't vanish.
"While these categories are vulnerable to disruption, embedded workflows, regulatory requirements, switching costs, and growing demand for data, orchestration, governance, and trust capabilities help sustain their relevance," the report said.
AI investment keeps climbing
The massive capital flowing into AI - including large datacenter construction plans - has led Gartner to raise its 2026 estimate for the total IT market to $6.37 trillion, up from $6.31 trillion in April and $6.15 trillion in February. Much of that growth comes from the technology industry itself, which invests around $1 trillion. That figure is set to grow by 34.7 percent over 2026.
Why this matters for IT and development professionals
The takeaway for developers and IT teams is not that their jobs vanish, but that the work shifts. Routine implementation, testing, and low-level code generation are precisely what AI tools are starting to handle. The professionals who will hold their value are those who can work alongside these tools - understanding how to direct them, verify their output, and handle the governance and orchestration that Forrester says keeps these markets relevant. For those in services roles, expect pricing pressure on lower-value work and more demand for skills in AI integration and data architecture. AI for IT & Development resources can help professionals identify which skills to build next.
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