Holiday 2025: AI and Resale Emerge as Winners Amid Mixed Sales Forecasts

Holiday Sales Predictions Vary, but One Thing Is Clear - AI Will Be a Winner

Forecasts for Holiday 2025 are split. Deloitte sees overall sales up 2.9% to 3.4% to reach $1.61-$1.62 trillion for Nov-Jan, a slower pace than 2024's 4.2%. Salesforce expects online sales to rise 4% year over year to $1.25 trillion globally. PwC, however, projects a 5% drop in average consumer spend, with per-person budgets falling from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,152 in 2025.

What This Means for Sales Leaders

Plan for a season where value beats novelty. Demand exists, but price sensitivity is higher and confidence is uneven. Win by making it easier to say "yes" at the exact moment intent forms - and a growing share of that intent now starts with AI assistants.

Consumer Signals: Price Jitters and Trade-Down Behavior

Tariff uncertainty and macro noise are weighing on shoppers. In August, one in three U.S. shoppers said they had bought less in the prior six months, 55% prioritized essentials, and 68% traded down to lower-priced goods.

Set up flexible offer logic and simple value stories. Think bundles that beat comparable sets, price locks on key gift items, and fast shipping promises that don't erode margin.

Resale Gets a Lift

Half of consumers say they're likely to gift a resale item this season. Salesforce pegs resale holiday sales at $64 billion. Motivations: 70% cite saving money, 33% worry about availability, and 25% cite sustainability and waste reduction.

Make resale shoppable and giftable. Curate "like-new" gift collections, add trade-in at checkout, and feature resale options in gifting guides to hit key price bands without sacrificing AOV.

AI Will Be the Growth Engine

AI shopping assistants such as Amazon's Rufus, Perplexity, Google's Gemini and ChatGPT are moving upstream in the buying process. In August, 7% of shoppers started with an assistant (up from 5% in May) and one in five used AI at some point in the last six months. Trust in AI recommendations jumped from 45% in May to 87% in August.

Salesforce now estimates AI will influence $263 billion in global online holiday sales. In the U.S., AI-impacted online sales are forecast at $51 billion, or 18% of online volume. Assistants aren't just at home - 57% of U.S. users engage them in-store, and usage is above 60% for millennials and Gen Z.

Traffic from assistant sources grew 119% year over year in H1 2025. These visitors convert 7x more than social traffic and 2x more than other sources. More than half plan to use AI for gift inspiration, led by apparel/accessories, footwear, health/beauty, electronics and food/beverage.

What to Do Now: A Sales Playbook for an AI-Led Peak

• Feed the assistants: Clean catalogs, complete attributes, live pricing and availability. Add product Q&A, comparison grids and concise gift guides so assistants can cite you with confidence.
• Own intent with assistant-friendly pages: Build "best for [recipient/budget/use case]" landing pages and short buyer guides for top gifting categories.
• Tag and track assistant referrals: Standardize UTMs for assistant sources and segment performance in analytics. Treat assistants like top affiliates with dedicated offers.
• Make value obvious: Simple bundles, transparent discounts and price locks on top gifts. Use thresholds that align with free shipping and BNPL to increase attachment.
• Put AI in your team's hands: Give reps prompt libraries for discovery, objection handling and quick product lookups. For fast upskilling, see AI courses by job and ChatGPT training resources.
• Bridge online to store: QR codes to gift finders, associate scripts to co-shop with assistants, and instant checkout options.
• Promote resale in prime placements: "Like-new" carousels on PDPs, trade-in incentives at checkout and resale gift cards.
• Reduce post-purchase friction: Expand agentic self-service for order status, exchanges and returns. Salesforce forecasts a 39% uptick in these sessions and a 2.5% drop in service case interactions - faster resolutions at lower cost.
• Prepare for tariff whiplash: Pre-price scenarios, flexible supplier mixes and clear customer messaging if costs shift.

Weekly Scorecard to Run Nov-Jan

• Share of traffic and revenue from assistant sources; conversion vs. other channels
• Gift guide and "best for" page entry rate, add-to-cart, and AOV
• Resale sell-through, margin contribution and attachment to new items
• Promo elasticity by category; price-match costs vs. lift
• In-store use of assistants and assisted basket size
• Service metrics: first-contact resolution, interactions per case, return cycle time
• Stockouts on priority gifts; time-to-restock and backorder conversion

Bottom Line

Growth will come from being easy to find, easy to trust and easy to buy - especially through AI assistants. Pair sharp value with assistant-ready content and measurement. Keep resale prominent to protect baskets when budgets tighten.

For source details on the retail outlook, see the Deloitte holiday forecast. If your sales team needs fast AI enablement, explore the latest AI courses.