Intel Stock Surges on CEO Shift, Insider Buying, and AI Partnerships as Breakout Looms Ahead of Earnings

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is staging a notable recovery after hitting multi-year lows earlier this year. Shares have climbed back to $23.02, up over 22% from the April low of $18.88. This rebound coincides with growing investor confidence that CEO Pat Gelsinger’s successor, Lip-Bu Tan, will accelerate Intel’s foundry transformation strategy. The stock recently reclaimed its 30-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since mid-2023. Additionally, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 49.2, signaling increasing bullish momentum as daily trading volumes exceed 35 million shares.

Insider Buying and Stock Buybacks Signal Confidence

Intel insiders have started accumulating shares quietly in June. Over the past 60 days, net insider purchases totaled approximately $3.2 million. CFO David Zinsner notably acquired more than 45,000 shares near the $21 price point, while several vice presidents increased holdings through 10b5-1 trading plans. This insider buying is particularly significant given the disappointing Q1 earnings.

Meanwhile, Intel has resumed its stock repurchase program, previously paused, with a $10 billion buyback initiative now back in action. These buybacks help reduce the float even as some retail investors continue to exit positions.

Strategic Layoffs and Leadership Changes Focus Resources on AI and Foundry

In the second quarter, Intel confirmed layoffs exceeding 1,200 employees in its Oregon and California facilities. These cuts primarily affect legacy chip design and networking divisions. The departure of Senior VP Randhir Thakur, former head of Foundry Services, in June signals a significant structural change at the executive level.

Intel is reallocating capital and research & development funds away from underperforming segments, redirecting efforts toward high-margin AI compute chips and foundry services for external customers. This approach aligns Intel with competitors AMD and TSMC but with an emphasis on vertical integration in chip packaging and fabrication.

SoftBank Partnership and ARM Integration Strengthen Intel’s AI Position

Intel confirmed a strategic move into AI compute deployments in collaboration with SoftBank’s ARM-based platforms. Its Gaudi 3 AI chips, combined with custom ARM cores, will be deployed across SoftBank data centers in Japan and Southeast Asia starting in Q4. This partnership positions Intel as a direct competitor to NVIDIA’s H100 GPU stack and opens growth opportunities outside North America.

CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s longstanding relationships with SoftBank, dating back to his roles at Cadence and Walden, played a key role in securing this deal. This alliance also gives Intel geopolitical advantages in Asian markets, where U.S. export restrictions limit NVIDIA’s reach.

Technical Outlook: Potential Breakout Above $25.80

Intel’s daily chart reveals a pattern of higher lows since May, forming an ascending triangle with resistance around $25.80. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows sustained positive momentum, while the RSI has moved above the neutral 50 level to 58.4.

Key resistance to monitor includes $24.40 in the near term and $27.50 as a critical retracement level from January’s decline. Options open interest clusters at $25 and $30 strike prices for July and August expirations, suggesting a potential gamma squeeze if the stock closes above $25.80. Support needs to hold above $21.90 to maintain the bullish outlook.

Upcoming Earnings Report Could Confirm New Narrative

Intel’s Q2 earnings report, due July 24, will be a pivotal event. Analysts forecast an EPS of $0.11 on $12.8 billion in revenue, both down year-over-year. Market focus is likely to be on guidance rather than past performance.

If Intel raises its full-year revenue forecast beyond $55 billion or reports stronger-than-expected AI chip sales, the stock could quickly rally toward $30–$33. However, any weak margin commentary or increased capital expenditure warnings might push shares back toward $20.

Investment Summary: Speculative Buy with Defined Risk

Trading at $23.02, Intel is best viewed as a speculative restructuring opportunity rather than a traditional value stock. Insider buying, strategic workforce reductions, and partnerships such as the SoftBank deal are positioning Intel for a potential second-half breakout.

The technical setup supports upside targets between $27.50 and $30.00, with a strict stop-loss below $21.90. A confirmed breakout above $25.80 could unlock further gains toward resistance near $33, last tested in early 2024.

Executives and strategy professionals monitoring Intel’s turnaround should pay close attention to the upcoming earnings guidance and technical signals to assess risk and timing for potential involvement.

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