San Francisco tourism forecast shows AI conferences driving recovery
San Francisco expects 24.2 million visitors in 2026, up from 23.7 million last year, with tourism spending projected to reach $9.9 billion. The growth comes as tech conferences-particularly AI events-replace the international leisure travel the city lost during the pandemic.
The tourism sector supports 63,900 jobs and generated $655 million in tax revenue last year. Hotel and restaurant employment has outpaced all other job sectors over the past year, according to state data.
Tech conferences replace lost leisure travel
Moscone Center has 38 events booked for 2026, generating 674,000 hotel room nights-a 6% increase from last year. Half of those events are tech conferences, many focused on artificial intelligence.
June alone will host six conferences at Moscone Center, including AI events from Snowflake and Databricks, plus a Microsoft AI event at Fort Mason. This schedule reflects a deliberate shift by San Francisco Travel, the city's tourism bureau, away from relying on leisure events like the World Cup.
"The biggest improvement is our convention numbers," said Anna Marie Presutti, CEO of San Francisco Travel. The city lost major conferences from Oracle, Google, and Meta during the pandemic but has since rebuilt those relationships.
International visitors remain below pre-pandemic levels
Overnight international visitors are expected to rise slightly to 2.3 million this year from 2.2 million last year. That modest growth masks a broader challenge: some leisure travelers and conference attendees have avoided the U.S. because of immigration policies and diplomatic tensions.
U.S. visitor numbers declined 5.5% last year despite record-high global tourism spending, according to Presutti. Some prospective foreign visitors have canceled trips over fears of detainment at the border.
The GDC Festival of Gaming saw a 30% plunge in attendance this year, partly because foreign game developers stayed away. Medical and professional association conferences have also declined since the pandemic, as many continuing education events moved online and stayed there.
Safety perceptions and costs pose ongoing challenges
San Francisco's average hotel occupancy is expected to reach 69% in 2026, up from 67% last year but well below 82% in 2019. The gap signals the city hasn't fully recovered.
Rising fuel costs and general travel expenses deter bookings, even as surveys show people feel positive about summer travel. Presutti heard from locals in Asia who cited street conditions and safety concerns as reasons to avoid San Francisco, despite recent crime declines.
The city's reliance on the tech sector carries risk. If the AI boom slows, convention bookings could drop. Moscone Center is seeking other event types-it hosted its first electronic music concert last year-but that diversification remains limited.
Presutti said the next few weeks leading up to the summer travel season will be "critical" for the industry. AI for Hospitality & Events professionals managing these conferences will play a direct role in whether the city meets its 2026 projections.
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