The Commerce Department's American AI Exports Program received just 78 applications in its first round, a figure far below the hundreds that agency officials had expected. The weak turnout marks an early setback for a Trump administration initiative designed to position U.S. semiconductors, AI models and software as the default technology for foreign buyers.
President Donald Trump launched the program last July with an executive order, and the department spent months gathering industry feedback before formally opening applications in October. Companies had until June 30 to team up and pitch complete AI export packages the government could market abroad. Three former department officials close to the program, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the response fell short of internal projections.
"It's a problem that Commerce spent months telling the White House that the industry wanted this program and would show up in force," said one former Trump Commerce Department official. "It's still early. But it's not where they hoped it'd be at this point."
The International Trade Administration (ITA), which runs the program, pushed back on that characterization. "ITA is very pleased with the quantity and quality of applications received," the agency said in a statement. "The volume of applications exceeded our expectations, and as industry innovates, we may consider another application period at a later date." An official added that submissions covered sectors including agriculture, education, autonomous logistics, public safety and critical minerals supply chains.
Industry skepticism and structural hurdles
Many of the country's biggest AI companies remain unconvinced the government's financing, advocacy and licensing incentives will meaningfully boost foreign sales, according to more than half a dozen technology executives, industry group leaders and analysts. The program asked applicants to assemble full-stack export packages spanning advanced chips, cloud infrastructure, AI models, cybersecurity and sector-specific applications - capabilities typically spread across multiple companies. That design favors the largest players, which already have established overseas customers and government relationships.
"The larger technology companies, the hyperscalers, and so on, they have strong global operations, so they may not be in every market, but they are adept at learning how to work in different jurisdictions and negotiate with the local governments," said Paul Lekas, head of global public policy and government affairs at the Software & Information Industry Association.
For those that do participate, the value may come from the signal of government backing, said Mike Walsh, a partner at DLA Piper. "The messaging device is important, the assistance of the United States government, the clearance of some red tape that even the largest companies still have to deal with, I think is helpful."
But others see the affiliation with the Trump administration as a liability. "It's not worth the headache and complexity, and it's not clear there's much upside to tying those projects to the Trump administration right now," said a senior official at a Washington-based industry group representing major tech companies, who spoke anonymously to explain why members opted out.
The shadow of the Anthropic order
Much of that hesitation traces back to the administration's abrupt, since-reversed order forcing AI company Anthropic to cut off foreign access to its latest models. Industry officials viewed the episode as a sign of how quickly Washington's priorities can shift - and how risky it could be to tie overseas business to them. Governments abroad are already questioning whether critical AI infrastructure built around American technology could become subject to sudden policy changes.
The doubts didn't begin with the Anthropic order. The initiative's original late-October deadline passed without a request for proposals, and Commerce didn't open the application window until April 1. In the interim, a coalition of more than a dozen industry organizations, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Information Technology Industry Council, asked for more time, citing the "complexity and breadth" of the topics covered.
Delayed launch and unclear guidance
Months after applications opened, some industry groups say they are still waiting for greater clarity on how the program will operate. Kristin Najdi, senior director of trade policy at ITI, said the initiative is a welcome opportunity to strengthen U.S. technology leadership, but "clear implementation guidance will be essential to ensuring it achieves these goals." A second phase, where the government will bring companies specific deals to bid on, has yet to launch.
Amazon Web Services confirmed it submitted an application, and Nvidia said it "looks forward to participating." But other expected anchors, such as OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices, haven't said whether they're taking part. The low engagement raises questions about whether foreign buyers will materialize. "Right now, what I think the administration is trying to do is assemble the supply side," said Aaron Cooper, senior vice president of global policy at the Business Software Alliance.
Why this matters for government professionals
The program's rocky start illustrates the difficulty of balancing national security restrictions with an aggressive export strategy. Government professionals working on AI policy, trade promotion or international technology cooperation face similar tensions: the need to project American leadership while managing ad-hoc security measures that can unsettle industry partners. For those shaping or implementing such programs, understanding both the technical landscape and the private sector's risk calculus is essential. Resources like the AI Learning Path for Policy Makers can help bridge that gap, while AI for Government offers broader insights into how public-sector AI initiatives are evolving. The early numbers from this export program serve as a reminder that even well-funded government efforts can falter without clear, consistent signals and a design that matches how the industry actually operates.
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