UK departments clash over AI datacentre energy forecasts
Two UK government departments have published conflicting estimates of how much electricity AI datacentres will consume by 2030, raising questions about whether the government can simultaneously pursue net zero targets and position itself as an AI superpower.
The Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) forecasts AI datacentres will need 6 gigawatts of electricity by 2030. The Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) projects the entire commercial services sector-which includes datacentres-will use only 528 megawatts more electricity over the same period. That's roughly one-tenth of DSIT's figure.
DESNZ is responsible for the UK's carbon budget growth and delivery plan, which sets out how the government will meet its international climate commitments. In January, the NGO Foxglove filed an environmental impact assessment request asking how DESNZ had accounted for AI datacentres in its emissions projections. DESNZ responded that it does not hold separate forecasts for datacentre growth.
Numbers revised after scrutiny
DSIT's own carbon emissions figures for AI datacentres have shifted dramatically. An annexe to the government's compute roadmap originally projected cumulative emissions of between 0.025 and 0.142 million tonnes of carbon equivalent-less than 0.05% of Britain's projected emissions.
Carbon Brief questioned the plausibility of those figures earlier this year, and the document was removed from the government website. After the Guardian asked about the discrepancy, DSIT updated its numbers on Thursday.
The department now says cumulative 10-year emissions from AI compute could range from 34 to 123 million tonnes of carbon equivalent-around 0.9% to 3.4% of the UK's projected total emissions. DSIT added that "the UK's grid decarbonisation plans would help to reduce emissions from datacentres towards the bottom end of this range."
Questions over government coordination
Cecilia Rikap, a researcher at University College London, said the misalignment suggests either departmental incompetence or "magical thinking about AI and big tech." She added: "Either way, the episode uncovers how these corporations control not only the AI value chain, but also the UK government."
Tim Squirrell, head of strategy at Foxglove, called the government's lack of clarity on datacentre environmental impact "alarming."
DESNZ said datacentre emissions are "factored into our modelling, including for carbon budget 7," which will be released this summer. A DSIT spokesperson referred questions to DESNZ.
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