US agentic commerce could reach $1 trillion by 2030 even as physical stores hold their ground, report finds

U.S. agentic sales projected to hit $1 trillion by 2030

Agentic commerce in U.S. retail could reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, according to a report released in April by ICSC and McKinsey & Company. The projection reflects rapid adoption of AI tools across the shopping journey, from product research to purchase completion.

Sixty-eight percent of consumers used at least one AI tool in the past three months while shopping. Of those, 62% used AI to compare brands, models, prices, or reviews.

Physical stores remain critical

Despite the growth in AI-driven commerce, brick-and-mortar retail isn't disappearing. Nearly 40% of Gen Z and millennials surveyed prefer experiential retail-visiting stores for discovery and social connection after researching online.

The stores that will succeed are those with a clear strategic purpose, according to the report. Colleen Baum, senior partner at McKinsey & Company, said: "AI isn't eliminating the store - it's raising the bar for what it needs to deliver."

How retailers are using AI

Retailers are deploying AI tools to strengthen in-store operations. The Vitamin Shoppe opened an AI-enabled Innovation Store in New York City using its Shoppe Advisor tool to provide product information and inventory availability. Tecovas, a boot brand, uses AI for inventory replenishment and allocation, seeing real-time sales increases of 9.6% when using the tool instead of manual management.

Sales associates benefit from AI-powered real-time inventory visibility, allowing them to answer customer questions faster and complete transactions more efficiently.

Trust remains a concern

Consumer adoption of AI shopping tools is high, but trust gaps persist. Over 60% of consumers prefer using AI-powered shopping tools, yet a larger share worries that algorithm-driven pricing doesn't deliver the best deals. A YouGov survey found that 41% of respondents had no trust in AI shopping assistants.

Tom McGee, president and CEO of ICSC, said retailers need to make "disciplined, intentional investments" to align stores with a clear strategic purpose. Retailers that fail to do so risk missing out on growing consumer spending.

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