U.S. Holiday 2025 Online Sales Up 5.3% to $253.4B as AI Gift Searches Surge and Social Commerce Booms

Online Holiday Sales Will Rise 5.3%: How Sales Teams Can Win With AI, Social, and Smart Discounts

U.S. online holiday sales are projected to hit $253.4 billion in 2025, up 5.3% year over year, according to Adobe Analytics. The drivers are clear: shoppers are using AI to find gifts, social ads are surging, and value hunting is non-negotiable. The forecast covers November and December and draws on 1 trillion site visits and 100 million SKUs.

AI will influence intent and conversions

Traffic to retail sites from AI platforms is expected to jump 520% versus last year, peaking in the 10 days before Thanksgiving. One in three shoppers has used AI for online shopping, led by research (53%), product recommendations (40%), deal finding (36%), and gift inspiration (30%), per Adobe.

Salesforce projects AI platforms and agents will influence 21% of global holiday sales this season (about $263 billion). So far this year, conversion rates from AI-referred traffic are 700% higher than social, and 86% of consumers say they trust AI chat agents, up from 46% in May.

• Sales plays for AI traffic: Ship clean product data (titles, attributes, availability, price) so AI agents can match intent. Publish gift guides and Q&A content that answer high-intent prompts.
• Stand up AI-friendly landing pages for "best gifts for…" queries and tag them with UTMs for AI referrals. Prioritize fast load times and immediate add-to-cart options.
• Offer concierge chat or guided selling on-site to capture AI-warmed visitors. Train reps to handle shorter purchase cycles and higher intent conversations.
• Align budgets to AI referral sources in your media mix testing. Track assisted conversions, not just last click.

If your team needs a quick upgrade on AI workflows and prompt skills, see these resources: AI training by job and ChatGPT tactics.

Thrifty shoppers will compress demand into key deal windows

The Thanksgiving-to-Cyber Monday stretch will account for 17.2% of holiday sales, up 6.3% from last year. 77% of shoppers say they'll wait for that window to save money.

Expect discount peaks up to 28% off list price and a season average near 22%. Merchants will be more selective with promotions, shifting to targeted offers and product-line deals rather than site-wide blasts. Promo-code use is set to dip 2% as retailers guard margins.

Financing will matter: Buy Now, Pay Later spend is forecast at $20.2 billion, up 11% year over year. And 46% of shoppers plan to gift a resale item, with saving money as the top reason.

• Sales plays for value demand: Build segmented offers (VIP, first-time, win-back) and product-line promos that protect margin. Use bundles to raise AOV without deeper discounts.
• Feature BNPL early in PDPs, cart, emails, and outbound scripts. Tie it to gift deadlines and inventory cues.
• List certified pre-owned or resale where relevant and address quality/return policies up front.
• Schedule "deal drops" that ladder urgency: limited quantities, limited-time gifts with purchase, and cart thresholds.

Social commerce will scale; attribution must keep up

Purchases attributed to social are set to rise 51% year over year, and ad spend will follow. Social is now a discovery and conversion channel, not just awareness.

• Sales plays for social: Sync your catalog to shoppable posts, live streams, and dynamic product ads. Use creator content to drive gift lists and category entry points.
• Retarget AI and social engagers with stacked proof (reviews, UGC, inventory signals). Map creative to gift recipients and price bands.
• Standardize UTMs and server-side tracking to separate AI, social, and direct. Report weekly on assisted conversions and ROAS by audience.

Key dates and pacing

• AI surge: 10 days before Thanksgiving. Launch AI-focused content and landing pages prior to that window.
• Deal peak: Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday holds 17.2% of season sales. Staff chat and sales coverage accordingly and pre-stage inventory holds for bestsellers.

Pipeline and quota planning tips

• Re-forecast with a heavier back-half of November spike and a steady December tail for gift cards and expedited shipping.
• Blend discount depth targets with margin floors by category. Approve exception paths for high-LTV segments.
• Allocate more SDR/AE capacity to AI-referred leads; expect shorter cycles and higher intent.
• Track BNPL adoption rate, return rate by promo depth, and contribution from resale SKUs to avoid margin surprises.

Metrics to watch weekly

• AI vs. social share of sessions, CVR, and assisted conversions
• Discount depth vs. gross margin and AOV
• BNPL share of orders and approval rates
• First-time buyers, repeat rate, and gift card redemption
• Stockouts on top gift SKUs and waitlist conversions

The signal is consistent across Adobe and Salesforce: AI-referred shoppers arrive with intent, social will push discovery harder, and buyers will trade time for price. Align your offers, pages, and sales coverage to those behaviors and you'll capture the surge without sacrificing margin.